soloestoy\" post_id=\"2052909\" time=\"1640178366\" user_id=\"56690:

St nicks and RVHS COP effectively dropped as well

A little, for the HCL grade. Can be due to this year HCL paper is more difficult than last year, hence harder to score D (or M)?

Fully agree with this. Spent whole day with my DS outside and asked him twice whether he wanted to appeal to either HCI or ACSI. He said dont need to. He is happy with RVHS. And we proceeded to Popular to purchase textbooks.


By the way, I am puzzled by RV booklist.. No history text, no science text listed.. :scratchhead:

Asdfgh\" post_id=\"2052847\" time=\"1640165458\" user_id=\"61111:

Actually all these doesn't really matter to us... It is the child that is going to study there. Most important is he or she is ok with the secondary school posting results(He or she like the school). Be it RI or RVH or any other secondary school. As long as they can survive in that school that they are attending and do well is the most important.

Imagine if you manage to squeeze in or ballot in at the cut off point and is not suitable in that school. Your child might have a hard time too.

Like for my case, my son is AL 7M. His first choice is HCI. just meet the cut off point and was not lucky to get in, definitely got ballot out.(I think) Singaporean. He was posted to DHS. I ask him if he wants to appeal. He say \"NO\". He is happy with DHS too.

So maybe it might a blessing in disguise who know..... Although it is me considering it as a dream school hoping that he can study in HCI (which I believe many parents also consider HCI to be one of their dream school)...

For all these arguments made here, nothing can change. Even the system will not be changed with so many voices. so what we can really do now is appeal or submit to fate.

If not, try to transfer to the desired school after sec 1 or 2. I heard there are cases too for transferring, mostly at end of sec 2 with good grades.

There are so many paths in life. so let not be upset over it. In life, we win some, we lose some. Be cheerful and grateful with the good grades that our child had achieved. Really not easy!

bbbay\" post_id=\"2052752\" time=\"1640152861\" user_id=\"175278:

Another option, easier to achieve and less worries for parents and child: don’t chase after top schools?

Yeah.. This is the ideal end product envisioned by MOE by shifting to AL system. But again, we all know that if that happens, it doesn't matter if it is Tscore or AL.

This is just my feeling, but judging by MOE announcement and the grounds, it looks like parents and kids generally still put down their choices as if it is Tscore. Maybe few more years down the road, things will stabilize?

All in all, congrats to those posted to their dream school. Those who did not get into first choice, like what I told my DS, \"it is not the school which defines our path, but how we pursue our path defines what we have down the road\".

PS: DS is happier than I expected going into RV. Maybe a girl that he likes also got into RV? :scared:

Strongmom\" post_id=\"2052723\" time=\"1640149156\" user_id=\"196036:

SpongyBobs
But if ACSI is your son dream school, so u n your boy want to consider appeal?

I saw someone posted COP is AL7

Well, I (parent) thought of appealing for HCI, but DS and mommy are happy with RVHS.

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2052716\" time=\"1640148168\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2052716 time=1640148168 user_id=195250]
It is good that your DS can take it well, not success in your first or second choice doesn't mean the end of the day. Lot of my colleagues who studied in normal neighbourhood schools before have achieved excellent exam results in O level / polytechnic and went to universities. Just want to say \"加油\" to your DS and you should be proud of him.[/quote]

Thank you for the encouraging words!

Mama55\" post_id=\"2052675\" time=\"1640144026\" user_id=\"196458:

My girl scored AL6, didn't get first choice RGS. Not sure if it's because of ballot or because cut off is actually lower than 6.

Think MOE said there is no COP at AL4 and AL5 for this year. So, RGS AL6 must have been balloted out.

Bentley88\" post_id=\"2052673\" time=\"1640143714\" user_id=\"176959:

OMG! That's unbelievable!! How is your son feeling about missing out on his first 2 choices?

Just shows how competitive the new PSLE system is. Already hearing so many stories on many Singaporeans kids missing out on their choices because of balloting. It's crazy to think for a 12 year old (and their parents) that their future path is determined by a ballot.

Well.. DS took it quite well. He said that a lot of his friends (whatsapp group) also posted to RVHS, even his best buddy.

But back to the system. MOE shifted from T-score to AL-system with the emphasis not to chase the last 1 score. This AL posting exercise (AL6 balloted out of RGS or RI) kind of telling us that, to be safe, kids now have to chase 5-points..

CCK2008\" post_id=\"2052610\" time=\"1640136538\" user_id=\"26004:

Wow, I guess your son was balloted out 2 times at HCI and ACSI. Think many AL7 out there.

Think only once.. I suspect ACSI cut off is also AL7. Those put ACSI as 1st choice may have gotten into the bowl, while the 2nd, 3rd are all out.

But we never know.. Guts tell me that there is higher chance for AL6 to ballot into RI than AL7M to ballot into HCI.

DS Singaporean AL7M, first choice HCI, 2nd ACSI, posted to 3rd choice of RVHS.


Worry is over, now is time to book slot for books and uniform purchase. Need to report to school on 10 Jan 22 with full RVHS uniform.

Anyone know if RV has shoes rules?

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2050237\" time=\"1638371651\" user_id=\"188234:

Noted on the GIGO, but here is one other way to interpret the data.

#1. Of the students scoring AL4-AL8, 33.4% of them scored AL4 or AL5. % of AL4-AL8 Responses:
AL4 = 17%
AL5 = 16%
AL6 = 24%
AL7 = 21%
AL8 = 22%

#2. If we assume the AL8 or better is the Top 10%, this puts AL5 or better at the Top 3.34%. Thoughts about this:

a) The KSP pool certainly has a response bias to it with more responses to the right hand side of the distribution. But do we believe the KSP pool is significantly more biased than the general pool of students/parents that score AL4-AL8? Of course we don't know but I'm not sure the bias here would be large (i.e. we've corrected much of the bias by rebasing the % to only consider those who scored AL8 or better).

b) The distribution is surprisingly uniform. I don't want to ignite the whole t-score to AL debate but I think as you went from 250-259, 260-269, 270-279, etc the percentage of cohort kept getting significantly smaller (which makes sense in the context of most statistical distributions).

c) I would propose that the \"uniform\" like distribution of AL4-AL8 scores above is either due to i) KSP still has response bias to those scoring AL4-AL5 or ii) students responded to the new scoring system and tried to get more AL1s or AL2s for each subject or specifically tried to pull up their weaker subject(s). Like many things, it could be a mix of both.

#3. What does all of this mean?

a) First, let's remember the data could all be rubbish and not worth a darn (people lying, significantly biased).
b) Second, everything depends on AL8 = Top 10%. As this moves, so will the implied percentages of total cohort.
c) There are many changes this year beyond what's discussed here. MTL exemption, choice patters on S1 option forms, others schools becoming more popular, etc

#4. I am not saying RGS is the \"Top\" or \"Best\" School but let's just look at it for a few moments since it seemed to get everyone fired up.

a) RGS COP is usually very close to ESIS. For the last three years I have:
2020 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 260
2019 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 261
2018 PSLE: ESIS = 260, RGS = 259

b) I don't care what AL 259-261 is. But what 2019 says to me is that among the students who scored ESIS threshold or higher (1,200 or so?), enough of them selected one particular school to fill it up (i.e. of this group there was demand for ~280 seats at RGS).

c) I know there are plenty of other great schools that attract high scoring girls, and it may not seem like it is possible for there to be enough AL5s for one school to have its COP at AL5.

But what has to happen for RGS to be AL5 COP? It just needs to match ESIS like it did in 2019 :yikes:

This is why I've mentioned earlier it would be very important to know exactly how many people or what % of the cohort ESIS or AL4-AL5 covers (could be noticeably lower or higher than it was in the past due to the wider AL bands) and whether this is larger or smaller than the historical figure (under t-score). People mention 3% before (I don't know if this is precisely correct or not) vs. our rebased survey implying 3.34% :yikes: :yikes:

Is RGS going to ballot at AL5? I don't know but it isn't so obvious to me that it can't or won't in one of the coming years.

Any constructive comments are welcome.

Interesting analysis. :goodpost: I thought about it before. This is what I thought, but conclusion is the same as yours:
* Assuming ESIS threshold = 3% → 1200 or so students
* Assuming girls : boys ratio = 55 : 45 (girls tend to do better, and from MOE simulation last year RGS, MGS, NYGH had slightly higher COP then RI, ACSI, HCI) → 660 girls
* Assume out of 660, 20% would have been posted by DSA (random number here, since I do not have data), that left 528 girls vying for S1 posting.
* Let's say we have 280 vacancies at RGS

From there, it would have been possible mathematically that we will see ballot at ESIS threshold (like you said , 2019 scenario). For this to happen:
* Large % of the girls need to put RGS as their first choice (280/528 ≈ 53%), about more than 53% of them have to do so. I don't know the impact towards other schools if this were to happen (will COP of NYGH, MGS, SNGS swing towards AL7?). Have the feeling that MGS has even higher chance to see balloting at AL5, given limited intake and the allure of IB.

If we look into students profiling based on sentiments from the ground:
* Portion of foreign students achieving AL4 - AL5 are mainly Chinese. For these students, maybe they will lean towards NYGH than RGS? Or, at least, if their choice order is RGS, NYGH, ..., I don't think they will resent to be posted to NYGH.
* The pressure will be on the non-chinese students, the high achieving Indian students, since they are most likely RGS, MGS, NJC, ? I don't see much options for them.

Unfortunately, when MOE announced AL system were to relieve pressure of PSLE students, for not chasing the last points, it is now true only for 91 - 100. The 86 to 89 (4-5 points) are now extremely important, and one can always argue that it causes even more stress.

Maybe independent schools should be allowed to conduct their own entrance tests or interview, decoupling them entirely from PSLE, like NUSH SIE. Maybe entire cohort stress level can now lower. But again, ones can again argue that, why should we let our kids sit for PSLE? :roll: