Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) Updates
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Just looking at the 91.7% for unvaccinated, which obviously includes the kids and teens, I immediately drew the conclusion that jab or no jab, my minor will have no or mild symptoms chilling in the 5-star hotel, so why rush to jab before those 20-39 adults who are dying to jab now?
Anyway, today's chart shows a slight dip, but still I get the same feeling.
I know they're trying hard to convince the public but I suggest they commission a more professional team of experts to come up with something like what the Brits and Taiwanese have done?
I want to see the Rt, not this kind of simplistic charts. Today's R value is 1.0 due to the MINDS cluster. So we're still not out of the woods yet, though OYK would like to paint the picture that we're seeing a drop in 3rd week of HA.
I just saw OYK draw another puzzling matrix on his Facebook. I don't really understand his ''Not Quarantined but linked''. If they are linked, shouldn't they jolly well be quarantined asap? Were these people gallivanting around, only to be detected by MOH through active surveillance? Why is there a decline after 3 weeks?
OYK's earlier 78 vaccinated vs 300 unvaccinated ratio was also very simplistic. :slapshead: He got criticised for his unscientific way of comparing the TTSH nos. :roll:
https://postimg.cc/QKkQKQHv
https://postimg.cc/TKPVhWGH -
zac's mum\" post_id=\"2026366\" time=\"1622991644\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=2026366 time=1622991644 user_id=53606]
I think the reason why the No & Mild Symptoms % in the unvaccinated & vaccinated group are so close is simply because we are in partial CB and have all the SMMs in place. Moreover, we are all wearing masks. Would be interesting to see the % if we didn't have all the stringent measures.
I wonder whether it has something to do with the high numbers/frequency of testing that we do in SG.
Do other countries test as aggressively as SG?
If SG runs a disproportionate number of tests on regular citizens, then surely a large number of asymptomatic cases are going to show up? In other countries that do not test, such pax would be completely undetected unless they have more severe symptoms & show up at hospitals begging for help.[/quote]
We are not testing aggressively IMHO. In SG, it's only when someone has ARI symptoms like sore throat, cough, runny nose will he be asked by his GP to do the ART and PCR tests.
For young people like you, if you do not see the need to see your GP and just take OTC meds or vits, your symptoms might just go away by themselves. Then you feel well enough to continue to move around Singapore and pass to an unlinked case whose antibodies are lower and who will have runny nose/cough and visit the GP to be discovered.
If we stop proactive routine testings, we would end up like Taiwan which has seen many deaths among the elderly over the past 3 weeks. They didn't even know B117 was already spreading quietly in their community. If you don't quickly test and quarantine the confirmed cases, they will gallivant around to pass to an unsuspecting vulnerable person at home or outside. By the time the vulnerable is discovered by contact tracing, it's too late. -
kimberlyleeforever\" post_id=\"2026370\" time=\"1622996224\" user_id=\"179710:
Why are you so naive? Do you seriously think our govt was really interested in Sinovac at all? I never thought so since last year, to be very honest with u. I suspect they just shortlisted it out of courtesy, pretending to be impartial to both East and the West amid the trade war last year.
We have given millions of dollars worth of FOC vaccinations to FOREIGN workers and domestic workers but want to charge Singapore citizens for vaccines of their choice/medical reasons which the government has already purchased earlier this year. What is the rationale for this? Please do not treat us worse than the foreigners. We are Singapore Citizens and many are pioneers. An inactivated virus vaccine of our choice is available and approved by the WHO. Why discriminate? Now they have put in a monetary/insurance deterrent on even those who need the Sinovac vaccine for legitimate medical reasons and these vaccines have been purchased and delivered since February 2021.
We are a developed jurisdiction. We have very stringent criteria. If you don't follow the gold std template, sorry we can't authorise nor cover your patients' related injuries.
The MOH 4 June statement says it all. Some of those WHO-approved vaccines for EUL are meant for COVAX to distribute to the ''low- and middle-income countries with limited access to COVID-19 vaccines.'' Singapore is not a low-income nation. We can afford what America, EU, Japan and Israel are jabbing their citizens with. We have the cold chain facilities that many others don't.
If you can afford Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac, why must you drive Geely? Of course the office holders won't say such nasty things to offend people, but I am a handle, so I can be blunt about it.
Some Singaporeans are still going on and on in Telegram chatgroups, writing petitions to the ministers, etc. I think it's absolutely pointless. Once the 200,000 doses for 100,000 persons are used up by the 34,000 (incl. 2,000 adverse reaction folks), PRC nationals and Sinophiles in Singapore, I do not think they will order more of this brand from Beijing. It's a clever and diplomatic way of getting rid of the sub-par investment or wrong bet of ours.
So those still dreaming of jabbing Sinovac later this year, sorry maybe can pray for private clinics to bring in J&J, Novavax, AZ or SinoPharm.
Remember: Anything of too low efficacy rate will push up our Herd Immunity Threshold. We are currently using 94-95% efficacy vaccines. If it weren't for the Delta variant whose R0 is >7 , we should be ok with just 70%-80%. No need to strive for 90%. Today, the kids are dragged in because some 280,000 elderly stubbornly don't want to jab in Feb-Mar. The latter are the ones who will likely need O2 supplementation and intubation if they don't jab any brand.
After most of our residents are done with the free jabs by Sept, the private clinics can import coveted mRNA vaccines like BNT to attract vaccine tourists from say, Indonesia and Taiwan. -
.zeit\" post_id=\"2026372\" time=\"1623002502\" user_id=\"171271:
The other immediate takeaway I had from the coloured chart chart was that: vaccination does not prevent us from being carriers & spreaders. This contradicts what govt would like us to believe (which is, “vaccinate yourself to protect your elderly family members”). Right now, the only evidence I’m seeing in SG is more in line with “vaccinate to protect yourself from having to get oxygen support and/or death from Covid”.
I think the reason why the No & Mild Symptoms % in the unvaccinated & vaccinated group are so close is simply because we are in partial CB and have all the SMMs in place. Moreover, we are all wearing masks. Would be interesting to see the % if we didn't have all the stringent measures.zac's mum\" post_id=\"2026366\" time=\"1622991644\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=2026366 time=1622991644 user_id=53606]I wonder whether it has something to do with the high numbers/frequency of testing that we do in SG.
Do other countries test as aggressively as SG?
If SG runs a disproportionate number of tests on regular citizens, then surely a large number of asymptomatic cases are going to show up? In other countries that do not test, such pax would be completely undetected unless they have more severe symptoms & show up at hospitals begging for help.
We are not testing aggressively IMHO. In SG, it's only when someone has ARI symptoms like sore throat, cough, runny nose will he be asked by his GP to do the ART and PCR tests.
For young people like you, if you do not see the need to see your GP and just take OTC meds or vits, your symptoms might just go away by themselves. Then you feel well enough to continue to move around Singapore and pass to an unlinked case whose antibodies are lower and who will have runny nose/cough and visit the GP to be discovered.
If we stop proactive routine testings, we would end up like Taiwan which has seen many deaths among the elderly over the past 3 weeks. They didn't even know B117 was already spreading quietly in their community. If you don't quickly test and quarantine the confirmed cases, they will gallivant around to pass to an unsuspecting vulnerable person at home or outside. By the time the vulnerable is discovered by contact tracing, it's too late.[/quote]
There is plenty of RRT going on that you may not be aware of. DH and everyone in his industry has had to report for nasal swab regularly for the past year or so (I think). Recently it is as frequent as every 7 days.
Those who were at the malls, lived in those HDB blocks? We saw the long Qs at the swabbing centres in the news. At the RRT centres there’s also a steady flow of people reporting daily. And govt is intending to ramp up even more (maybe not all via nasal swabs).
I don’t know where to get the numbers but we seem to have run millions of PCR tests so far for such a tiny population. Gotta say the turnaround test result time of ~24-48 hours for that kind of volume is highly efficient. -
Like: vaccinate yourself to not relying on oxygen support when being infected
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Zeal mummy\" post_id=\"2026359\" time=\"1622984944\" user_id=\"58173:[quote=\"Zeal mummy\" post_id=2026359 time=1622984944 user_id=58173]
Re the passport no. - since this changes every time we change passport, we will need to get a new cert after changing passport, I suppose.
*Community Announcement*
For those vaccinated (2doses) can visit *notarise.gov.sg* to get your digital vaccination certificate. Your passport number is also attached.
If you got your second dose more than 14 days ago, you can get the vaccination certificate from the above link
Your passport number will be attached to facilitate application for travel and entry to destination location.
Another service from GovTech[/quote] -
starlight1968sg\" post_id=\"2026377\" time=\"1623018976\" user_id=\"14025:
Like: vaccinate yourself to not relying on oxygen support when being infected
It will be better for the government to break down the numbers in the chart by age group and more importantly, those with pre-existing conditions like cancer.
The reason being those aged and with pre-existing conditions are those who will likely be ones with severe covid-19 symptoms and yet they are also the ones who will likely not be \"suitable for vaccination\". This bias in the samples, if not corrected will inevitably skewed the figures of the percentage who \"will suffer from severe symptoms\" among the unvaccinated.
The benefits for vaccination among the younger cohort (say below 65 years old) will only be unbiased if we compared figures only belonging to the same age segments. -
WE2012\" post_id=\"2026385\" time=\"1623032290\" user_id=\"138082:
I would like to see the breakdown of the patients who were hospitalized in NCID, who were in ICU, who passed away, from Covid.starlight1968sg\" post_id=\"2026377\" time=\"1623018976\" user_id=\"14025:
Like: vaccinate yourself to not relying on oxygen support when being infected
It will be better for the government to break down the numbers in the chart by age group and more importantly, those with pre-existing conditions like cancer.
The reason being those aged and with pre-existing conditions are those who will likely be ones with severe covid-19 symptoms and yet they are also the ones who will likely not be \"suitable for vaccination\". This bias in the samples, if not corrected will inevitably skewed the figures of the percentage who \"will suffer from severe symptoms\" among the unvaccinated.
The benefits for vaccination among the younger cohort (say below 65 years old) will only be unbiased if we compared figures only belonging to the same age segments.
What were their pre-existing conditions (if any)? And were they vaccinated (one dose or two doses? Which brand?)
Only then can we draw some meaningful conclusions.
Infection rates stats are not very crucial if the infections aren’t hurting anyone. -
zac's mum\" post_id=\"2026375\" time=\"1623015420\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=2026375 time=1623015420 user_id=53606]
Yes, absolutely correct. I went for the jab knowing this very well as I've read quite a lot of academic research papers on my own accord
The other immediate takeaway I had from the coloured chart chart was that: vaccination does not prevent us from being carriers & spreaders. This contradicts what govt would like us to believe (which is, “vaccinate yourself to protect your elderly family members”). Right now, the only evidence I’m seeing in SG is more in line with “vaccinate to protect yourself from having to get oxygen support and/or death from Covid”.
There is plenty of RRT going on that you may not be aware of. DH and everyone in his industry has had to report for nasal swab regularly for the past year or so (I think). Recently it is as frequent as every 7 days.
Those who were at the malls, lived in those HDB blocks? We saw the long Qs at the swabbing centres in the news. At the RRT centres there’s also a steady flow of people reporting daily. And govt is intending to ramp up even more (maybe not all via nasal swabs).
I don’t know where to get the numbers but we seem to have run millions of PCR tests so far for such a tiny population. Gotta say the turnaround test result time of ~24-48 hours for that kind of volume is highly efficient.[/quote]
There's an academic study done in N Carolina where they found that Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths would continue to rise if SMMs such as quarantine, school closures, social distancing and mask-wearing were lifted while vaccines were being rolled out.
If we'd removed all the SMMs while vaccinations were ongoing, 91.7% in the unvaccinated group could become say, 71.9%, who knows? More unvaccinated adults might need ventilators, and this would increase the country's healthcare costs greatly. That's why I will continue to don my mask till next year!
In essence, this study showed that:
If vaccines with 50% efficacy were rolled out to 25% of adults, the model showed an average of 2.2 million new infections when precautions were lifted, and just under 800,000 new infections when they were maintained.
If vaccines with 90% efficacy were given to 75% of adults, the model showed an average of 527,409 new infections when precautions were lifted, and 450,575 new infections when they were maintained.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2780539?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=060121
OK I'm like comparing SG with China which does mass pool testings for the entire population of a single province. Ours is more selective, i.e. specific HDB blocks, malls and institutions.
Yup, I know our SG migrant worker dorms have RRTs on a fortnightly basis. Large plants especially the GLCs also conduct RRTs for staff.
We've tested over 11.9 million since last year, which accounts for 2 million tests per 1 million persons in our population. The PCR turnarounds are very impressive indeed! My new helper's results came back within 36hrs. Turnaround cannot be too slow if you want to stem the spread.
Taiwan's been doing ''regressive calibration'' for their PCR backlogs, due to low testing capacity in their labs. By the time their lab churns out the PCR results, those cases had gone to so many places in Taipei or had deteriorated and died of silent hypoxia at home! -
.zeit\" post_id=\"2026372\" time=\"1623002502\" user_id=\"171271:
Partial CB, wearing of masks, tightening measures etc. can only explain the small number of community cases in SG but it does not explain why 91.7% of the non-vaccinated covid patients experience no or mild symptoms.
I think the reason why the No & Mild Symptoms % in the unvaccinated & vaccinated group are so close is simply because we are in partial CB and have all the SMMs in place. Moreover, we are all wearing masks. Would be interesting to see the % if we didn't have all the stringent measures.
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