Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) Updates

[sharonkhoo]

starlight1968sg\" post_id=\"2042645\" time=\"1634448125\" user_id=\"14025:

WE2012\" post_id=\"2042643\" time=\"1634447677\" user_id=\"138082:

[quote=starlight1968sg post_id=2042640 time=1634447001 user_id=14025]Is counting only PCR positive cases correct to reflect the covid situation in Singapore?

Correct or not is up to each's interpretation. But virus do not care about all the politics that human play. The result will be clearly shown in the death toll and that is the number than finally matters. Death toll however is a lagging indicator.

I have expected the number to fall but then increase later, abeit at a slower rate (i.e. due to change in methodology that redefines how cases are recorded), given that we start to exclude people who are ART-positive but mild and do not required PCR test for them. The slightly lower number we see this week compared to last week may not reflect a success in our SMM efforts. Rather it may largely be due to change in methodology of how we record cases.

Agreed with death toll due to covid matters most.
Is about 10 deaths due to covid per day normal in the current situation?[/quote]I think the total case count isn't \"correct\" since it leaves out all those who self-test and recover at home without needing a PCR test. As WE2012 points out, as the counting methodology has just changed, it's hard to know what the nos. indicate until 3-4 weeks after the change at least. Hospitalisation and deaths give a better picture, I feel.

As for the deaths, it's been around 10 a day for quite a while, so it seems fairly \"normal\" for now, as vaccine efficacy wanes in some, especially the elderly and vulnerable, and the Delta variant catches some who haven't been vaccinated. I expect that the death nos. will decline once those have been protected by vaccination/boosters, or sadly, die. I've heard some experts say that once this \"catch-up\" phase is past, when everyone has caught and recovered (or not) from Covid-19, then the death rate from Covid might well stabilise at around 2 a day.

[MrsKiasu]

Then we hope dont see any ‘deadlier’ variant after that, else if according to ‘survival of fittest theory’, another round of elimination??

[sharonkhoo]

MrsKiasu\" post_id=\"2042651\" time=\"1634449059\" user_id=\"43981:

Then we hope dont see any 'deadlier' variant after that, else if according to 'survival of fittest theory', another round of elimination??

It keeps us humble - no matter how clever our scientists are, there will always be something they cannot overcome totally.

[lee_yl]

MrsKiasu\" post_id=\"2042647\" time=\"1634448332\" user_id=\"43981:

Will we start seeing 10 as a low number in the very near future :sad:

If next month’s fatalities number more than 1K, that would be an average of 30 deaths per day.

[pirate]

pirate\" post_id=\"2040025\" time=\"1633057725\" user_id=\"66252:

Ok. To put things into perspective. I did some digging at Singstats.

The death rate in Singapore for 70 and over is 37.1 per 1,000 in 2020 and 38 per 1,000 in 2019. The resident population for this age group in 2021 is 403,607. This translates to approx 1,250 deaths a month from all causes.

Has it gone up in a statistically significant manner in September 2021?

I said this on October 1.

Is 10 deaths a day from Covid complications high? I don't know. We don't have enough data yet.

Will the total number of deaths for the age group 70 and above for October 2021 shoot up to 1,550 because of this 10 a day or will it remain at 1,250? The 40 or so in September 2021 is not that statistically significant.

I suspect it will be somewhere in between, which means that some of those who died from Covid complications would have died from some other complications anyway, given their co-morbidities.

Sometimes we forget that, without Covid, we are still not immortal.

[Estéema]

MrsKiasu\" post_id=\"2042651\" time=\"1634449059\" user_id=\"43981:

Then we hope dont see any 'deadlier' variant after that, else if according to 'survival of fittest theory', another round of elimination??

They’ve alr found new variants in S Africa & Columbia (think it’s labeled MU) incl one that is resistant even to current vaccines. That’s why I’ll nvr let my guard down as I hv elderlies to think for. Hv to do groceries for MIL & her non-ambulant elder sister

[pirate]

lee_yl\" post_id=\"2042654\" time=\"1634449532\" user_id=\"17023:

MrsKiasu\" post_id=\"2042647\" time=\"1634448332\" user_id=\"43981:

Will we start seeing 10 as a low number in the very near future :sad:

If next month’s fatalities number more than 1K, that would be an average of 30 deaths per day.

If next month's fatalities number more than 1k, but total deaths for 70 and above remains around 1,250, then it would mean nothing. That's the problem with \"if\".

[Liew Nga Wing]

To me, even one death from the complication of Covid 19 is too much no matter whether I know he/she.

[starlight1968sg]

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2042658\" time=\"1634451378\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2042658 time=1634451378 user_id=195250]
To me, even one death from the complication of Covid 19 is too much no matter whether I know he/she.[/quote]

Yes, all lives are priceless and who are we to say x number of deaths is reasonable, acceptable, OK, etc.
But we all know all living things grow old and die

[pirate]

starlight1968sg\" post_id=\"2042667\" time=\"1634454429\" user_id=\"14025:

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2042658\" time=\"1634451378\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2042658 time=1634451378 user_id=195250]To me, even one death from the complication of Covid 19 is too much no matter whether I know he/she.

Yes, all lives are priceless and who are we to say x number of deaths is reasonable, acceptable, OK, etc.
But we all know all living things grow old and die[/quote]

Unfortunately, it is the burden of leadership to make such life and death decisions, when there is no good choice.

That is not to say that I agree with the present political leadership's decisions on this.