Choosing and Evaluating Primary Schools
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floppy\" post_id=\"2066824\" time=\"1652051666\" user_id=\"97579:
2022: 40 places will be reserved in phrase 2C in each primary school for the year 2022. After the increase of the phrase 2C places to 40, maybe it wouldn’t be 100% ballot for SC < 1km in Phase 2C. Oh well, let’s see how it goes this year.
Do you have any Phase 2CS schools in mind?
Because there’s where you will end up if you choose to apply FMPS in Phase 2C as FMPS will 100% ballot for SC < 1km in Phase 2C. My suggestion would be to consider other schools in Queenstown that’s closer to you (and there isn’t any reason to apply to Maris if you have no intention to keep that place). -
Zeal mummy\" post_id=\"2066828\" time=\"1652052470\" user_id=\"58173:[quote=\"Zeal mummy\" post_id=2066828 time=1652052470 user_id=58173]
As most people that failed at Phase 2A/2B will try again in Phase 2C, maybe there is still balloting for SC < 1km in Phase 2C.
2022: 40 places will be reserved in phrase 2C in each primary school for the year 2022. After the increase of the phrase 2C places to 40, maybe it wouldn’t be 100% ballot for SC < 1km in Phase 2C. Oh well, let’s see how it goes this year.[/quote] -
Zeal mummy\" post_id=\"2066828\" time=\"1652052470\" user_id=\"58173:[quote=\"Zeal mummy\" post_id=2066828 time=1652052470 user_id=58173]
In 2016, there were 40 applicants in Phase 2C for FMPS.
2022: 40 places will be reserved in phrase 2C in each primary school for the year 2022. After the increase of the phrase 2C places to 40, maybe it wouldn’t be 100% ballot for SC < 1km in Phase 2C. Oh well, let’s see how it goes this year.[/quote]
In 2019, 41.
Those were the lowest number in terms of applicants for FMPS in Phase 2C in the last 10+ odd years. That’s from a period where SC < 1km know they have only a slim chance but still, die-die wanna ballot.
Thus, even in the “best” of times, 40 places isn’t enough to guarantee a reasonable chance for SC 1-2km. IMHO the new policy wouldn’t have any significant impact for SC > 1km for FMPS. -
floppy\" post_id=\"2066835\" time=\"1652054126\" user_id=\"97579:
It could be possible that a few places be left for 1-2km. I wouldn’t say it’s 100% no chance with the new 40 reserved places.
In 2016, there were 40 applicants in Phase 2C for FMPS.
In 2019, 41.
Those were the lowest number in terms of applicants for FMPS in Phase 2C in the last 10+ odd years. That’s from a period where SC < 1km know they have only a slim chance but still, die-die wanna ballot.
Thus, even in the “best” of times, 40 places isn’t enough to guarantee a reasonable chance for SC 1-2km. IMHO the new policy wouldn’t have any significant impact for SC > 1km for FMPS. -
Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2066833\" time=\"1652053967\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2066833 time=1652053967 user_id=195250]
Balloting could happen at 1-2km. That’s why the original poster is asking. You do have point though… it very slim.
As most people that failed at Phase 2A/2B will try again in Phase 2C, maybe there is still balloting for SC < 1km in Phase 2C.[/quote] -
Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2066833\" time=\"1652053967\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2066833 time=1652053967 user_id=195250]
I know this is a \"blanket statement\" that has been used a lot but one has to look at the particular school to determine if it applies. If the people who failed in 2A and 2B were greater than 1 km, they don't really get to try again for the same school if balloting is almost certainly going to happen in 2C < 1 km.
As most people that failed at Phase 2A/2B will try again in Phase 2C, maybe there is still balloting for SC < 1km in Phase 2C.[/quote]
Some schools that always had 20 spots in 2C will likely see better odds this year than in the past, as some who failed in 2A will probably not be able to try again in 2C (i.e. they are 1-2 km or > 2 km). The super hot schools will still need to ballot (at probably not great odds) but I don't think it will be the same odds as before (for all of them). Won't be as good as just adding 20 spots to the availability either though.
Regardless, in this situation I would think the change is going to be more on the odds for those in 2C < 1 km than shifting the ballot distance.
Could be wrong though, as I don't know all of the ins and outs and factors at play for this specific school. -
If we were just shifting availability from 2A to 2C, and all of the additional rejects in 2A were eligible for 2C < 1 km, the odds would still be better for those in simply 2C?
Old:
Vacancy = 20
Applicants = 60
Odds = 33%
New:
Vacancy = 40
Applicants = 60 + 20 rejected from 2A = 80
Odds = 50%
No? I guess ballot could have shifted in 2B from 1-2k to < 1 km, although this seems unlikely if the school only had 20 spots in each of 2B and 2C. Or, a) more people can move in 2A (move from 1-2 km or > 2 km to < 1 km), which could increase the number of rejects that can try again in 2C or b) with more vacancies in 2C more people may move within 1 km. I.e. 50% odds is "too high" and people will risk it at 1:3 or so… -
floppy\" post_id=\"2066824\" time=\"1652051666\" user_id=\"97579:
Unfortunately the other school we have in mind would be Henry Park, which is as popular as Fairfield.
Do you have any Phase 2CS schools in mind?
Because there’s where you will end up if you choose to apply FMPS in Phase 2C as FMPS will 100% ballot for SC < 1km in Phase 2C. My suggestion would be to consider other schools in Queenstown that’s closer to you (and there isn’t any reason to apply to Maris if you have no intention to keep that place).
We are currently trying to get an endorsement/letter from a pastor so that we can apply to Fairfield under phase 2B. Same question - What are the chances if we now apply under 2B and is it worth the risk to give up our space in Maris Stella for this 2B application?
Thank you all for your comments, they're very helpful! -
Basically you just need to weigh:
1. A guaranteed seat for alumni at Maris Stella
Versus
2. A zero-to-tiny chance of getting a seat via lucky draw balloting at Fairfield (failing which, go to one the following via 2CS:
- Queenstown Primary
- New Town Primary)
*update: if you manage to get the 2B letter for church members, then you MAY have an additional lucky draw chance at 2B -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2066847\" time=\"1652058344\" user_id=\"188234:
Very interesting. I never thought of it this way.
If we were just shifting availability from 2A to 2C, and all of the additional rejects in 2A were eligible for 2C < 1 km, the odds would still be better for those in simply 2C?
Old:
Vacancy = 20
Applicants = 60
Odds = 33%
New:
Vacancy = 40
Applicants = 60 + 20 rejected from 2A = 80
Odds = 50%
...
Well, we should remember that Phase 2A are for alumni of the school, who may be staying outside of the school zone (>2km). To say that all those that failed in Phase 2A (or Phase 2B) will be able to try again for Phase 2C would not be accurate.
I am more concerned with what the policy might appear to others who stay nearby the school. It might be that suddenly, the school seems opened to everyone and this could lead to a mass of people swamping the school at the last minute :nailbite: . We'll just have to see.
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