All About Primary Schools' Balloting History

[Atriaky]

Dear Admin,


Could I have the history for 2A for Henry Park Primary School?
Deciding if its necessary to move within 1km

Thank you v much!

[ChiefKiasu]

Atriaky\" post_id=\"2068848\" time=\"1653630241\" user_id=\"198240:

Dear Admin,

Could I have the history for 2A for Henry Park Primary School?
Deciding if its necessary to move within 1km

Thank you v much!

https://i.imgur.com/7Dx1Cly.png\">

Here's Henry Park in all its glory. For Phase 2A, balloting at >2km for SC has occurred for Phase 2A(2) 4 times in:
2020
2016
2015
2014

Essentially, where (2A2 Balloting) is 4.

So historically, Henry Park has never needed to ballot within 2km. However, as this year we are losing 20 places from Phase 2A and lumping Phase 2A(1) and (2) together, all bets are off. Henry Park will definitely require balloting in Phase 2A this year, and the question remains whether it will still stay at >2km.

[rinrin1988]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2068828\" time=\"1653616945\" user_id=\"3:

https://i.imgur.com/4Zuv92D.png\">

https://i.imgur.com/XfFC5Xd.png\">

Here you go.

Both schools are pretty similar in terms of vacancies left by Phase 2C, but judging from the number of people applying for Phase 2C in both schools in recent years, it is clear that St Andrew's have a slight edge.

In terms of intensity of balloting, however, Maris Stella has been balloting <1km in the last 3 years, while St Andrew's have been balloting at 1-2km in 2 of the last 3 years.

As both schools usually have more than 40 seats by Phase 2C, the changes this years are unlikely to affect them.

Thank you so much!

[SG_KP1]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2068828\" time=\"1653616945\" user_id=\"3:

https://i.imgur.com/4Zuv92D.png\">

https://i.imgur.com/XfFC5Xd.png\">

Here you go.

Both schools are pretty similar in terms of vacancies left by Phase 2C, but judging from the number of people applying for Phase 2C in both schools in recent years, it is clear that St Andrew's have a slight edge.

In terms of intensity of balloting, however, Maris Stella has been balloting <1km in the last 3 years, while St Andrew's have been balloting at 1-2km in 2 of the last 3 years.

As both schools usually have more than 40 seats by Phase 2C, the changes this years are unlikely to affect them.

Chief, I believe there may be a slight change for Maris Stella this year? Previously, the seats after 2A were split 50-50 between 2B and 2C. Recently, Maris Stella was balloting at 2B (>2 km ballot) and no excess flowed to 2C. Hence, this year more seats should flow to 2C (after 2A split is 1/3 to 2B and 2/3 to 2C now) and some that failed in 2B may not be able to try again (if > 1 km).

In contrast, St Andrews Junior was not utilizing all of the seats available in 2B and the excess availability flowed to 2C. I.e. under the new rules 2C availability is likely to be similar (2B could be tighter under the new rules).

Of course, none of this considers change in behavior (parents move or more apply) or any changes in the distance calculation (radius or new housing developments).

[ChiefKiasu]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2069144\" time=\"1653956960\" user_id=\"188234:

Chief, I believe there may be a slight change for Maris Stella this year? Previously, the seats after 2A were split 50-50 between 2B and 2C. Recently, Maris Stella was balloting at 2B (>2 km ballot) and no excess flowed to 2C. Hence, this year more seats should flow to 2C (after 2A split is 1/3 to 2B and 2/3 to 2C now) and some that failed in 2B may not be able to try again (if > 1 km).

In contrast, St Andrews Junior was not utilizing all of the seats available in 2B and the excess availability flowed to 2C. I.e. under the new rules 2C availability is likely to be similar (2B could be tighter under the new rules).

Of course, none of this considers change in behavior (parents move or more apply) or any changes in the distance calculation (radius or new housing developments).

Thanks @SG_KP1!

Indeed you are right, but because that lady only asked for Phase 2C data... well, that's what she will get

[ChiefKiasu]

Hmm... seems like MOE is late in posting the total number of places it is putting out this year (2022), as it always do every year. Or maybe I'm too early?

[zac's mum]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2070613\" time=\"1655363300\" user_id=\"3:

Hmm... seems like MOE is late in posting the total number of places it is putting out this year (2022), as it always do every year. Or maybe I'm too early?

I dont remember the usual timeline, but in 2022 Phase 1 ends 4.30pm on 30 June 2022, so I guess they will update the remaining vacancies after that date.

[ChiefKiasu]

zac's mum\" post_id=\"2070617\" time=\"1655364184\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=2070617 time=1655364184 user_id=53606]
I dont remember the usual timeline, but in 2022 Phase 1 ends 4.30pm on 30 June 2022, so I guess they will update the remaining vacancies after that date.[/quote]

Oh no... i wasn't talking about \"during\" the registration. I was talking about them releasing the total number of vacancies assigned to all primary schools, which is usually revealed BEFORE phase 1 even starts. Like last year, there was 41,888 vacancies in total. Oh well.

[zac's mum]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2070618\" time=\"1655365826\" user_id=\"3:

Oh no... i wasn't talking about \"during\" the registration. I was talking about them releasing the total number of vacancies assigned to all primary schools, which is usually revealed BEFORE phase 1 even starts. Like last year, there was 41,888 vacancies in total. Oh well.

Oic. I’m guessing it will be around the same.

If I didnt calculate wrongly, last year was SG50 babies’ registration? So this year SG51 babies’ registration?

Next year onwards then expect total vacancies to be cut cos drop in #births plus Covid lull etc.

[floppy]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2070618\" time=\"1655365826\" user_id=\"3:

Oh no... i wasn't talking about \"during\" the registration. I was talking about them releasing the total number of vacancies assigned to all primary schools, which is usually revealed BEFORE phase 1 even starts. Like last year, there was 41,888 vacancies in total. Oh well.

This year, Phase 1 results will be announced on 5 July. My guess is that MOE will provide the details in the first week of July only.