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[zeit.033699]

I’ve to say 朱立伦’s an excellent 操盘手 in this 9+1 elections, despite that KMT had ‘shown hand’ first before DPP and TPP, meaning they introduced and fielded their candidates before their opponents did。


朱 also adopted the 空城计 in 苗栗 by not nominating any KMT candidate there but leverage the local 黑帮老大 who has many followers in the native villages to run as an independent candidate. Eric Chu doesn’t want to taint KMT’s ‘clean’ reputation by nominating someone from the triads. But after this 钟 triad guy won, he is expected to join KMT, so 苗栗 would eventually turn blue and come under KMT’s control.

In 新竹, same thing. 朱 closed one eye by allowing a few KMT members to run as independent candidates, i.e. not contest under the blue banner, so that they would 倒戈–without guilt–with tens of thousands of KMT hardcore supporters in the villages to TPP’s 高虹安. As independent candidates, they will not be penalised by and expelled from KMT. After bringing down DPP with the help of TPP, it’s likely these temp defectors would reinstate their KMT membership, so TPP’s 高虹安 the new mayor will effectively become the puppet of KMT as she has no grassroots supporters in 新竹. 高虹安 would have to kowtow to 新竹县长 杨文科 and 新竹议长 许修睿 (another triad leader) who are both from KMT.

But being a shrewd KMT chairman/ election strategist doesn’t automatically make him a good presidential candidate, though he has all the necessary credentials that no other KMT mayors have at this point. But, he doesn’t have the full support of all his cadres. He had lost badly in 2016 to 蔡英文 too。

[zeit.033699]

chenlaoshi\" post_id=\"2090501\" time=\"1669476257\" user_id=\"162894:

Yeah, 总统选举 is different from 地方选举. 朱立伦 probably dreaming of presidential candidacy nomination with this showing (though 韩国瑜，盧秀燕 and侯友宜 probably 虎视眈眈 ）

Interesting to see how the 高虹安 saga pans out in the long run.

Nope, 韩国瑜 will not run again. He has lost his shine.
Neither will 卢秀燕 as she can't leave her 台中 voters in a lurch like what 韩国瑜 did in 2019 to run for prez。 She faces the risk of impeachment.

Frankly, 侯友谊 faces the same conundrum. But KMT can 征召 him so he can legitly resign to run. He has a very high chance of winning the 2024 election if he is paired with the correct running mate, e.g. maybe 柯文哲, but would the 100-year-old KMT allow TPP's 柯 be the Prez, while their own heavyweight 候 assumes the useless VP post?

And don't forget 赵少康 also has ambitions to run, as he has already said so. He has groomed a bunch of young KMT cadres and internet troopers. Most of his 少康帮 folks are Christians. But he has a ''DNA'' problem. He is 外省挂, so nah...out。

To win 2024, KMT must field a native Taiwanese 本省人, so 侯友谊 is the best candidate to fight 赖清德。

侯友谊 isn't really 虎视眈眈 lah. He doesn't need to! As a former top cop, 候 already has the clout and strong support base, both in green and blue camps. He has already completed his 新北 master plan up till 2030, so his vice mayor can simply take over his projects while he resigns to run for 2024.

Anyway, I am pretty sure 侯友谊 has ambition to run for President, because I saw 候 publicly convey his congratulations to Lawrence Wong on the latter's FB when LW was chosen as PAP's 4G leader! 候 even welcomed LW to visit Taiwan soon! On the same day, KMT also congratulated LW, and that could have come from 朱立伦！ No other mayor and DPP politicians had done so....so 高调！

[floppy]

chenlaoshi\" post_id=\"2090501\" time=\"1669476257\" user_id=\"162894:

Yeah, 总统选举 is different from 地方选举. 朱立伦 probably dreaming of presidential candidacy nomination with this showing (though 韩国瑜，盧秀燕 and侯友宜 probably 虎视眈眈 ）

Interesting to see how the 高虹安 saga pans out in the long run.

My early bet: both 朱立伦 and 韩国瑜 won’t be nominated by KMT and people like 蒋 is smart enough to bide his time as the next PE would be too early for him.

Given that both DPP and KMT are lacking in charismatic and high caliber candidate, it doesn’t matter who they nominate, my feel is that the most likely winner is 柯 P.

[chenlaoshi]

卢秀燕 and 侯友谊 没有把话说死 + unlike 韩国瑜, they have at least managed a term as 市长. KMT only has 1 ticket though so some sort of 内斗 is inevitable I guess.


Will it be a 三角战 (DPP, TPP and KMT) or 多角战 (DPP, TPP, KMT + someone like 郭台铭) or 绿 vs 蓝白合? :scratchhead:

[chenlaoshi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/chinese-protesters-use-tricks-to-evade-censors-vent-covid-anger?
[list]

[Liew Nga Wing]

作为国家未来的栋梁，当国家正要面对内优外患的时候，这些莘莘学子，为何还要为了一己之欲，在这时候为国家添烦添乱呢？

[Maclaren]

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2090639\" time=\"1669589727\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2090639 time=1669589727 user_id=195250]
作为国家未来的栋梁，当国家正要面对内优外患的时候，这些莘莘学子，为何还要为了一己之欲，在这时候为国家添烦添乱呢？[/quote]

Hi,
Interesting comments....could you please kindly explain why is it .......一己之欲........添烦添乱 so that I can understand. Thanks.

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chenlaoshi\" post_id=\"2090633\" time=\"1669567375\" user_id=\"162894:

卢秀燕 and 侯友谊 没有把话说死 + unlike 韩国瑜, they have at least managed a term as 市长. KMT only has 1 ticket though so some sort of 内斗 is inevitable I guess.

Will it be a 三角战 (DPP, TPP and KMT) or 多角战 (DPP, TPP, KMT + someone like 郭台铭) or 绿 vs 蓝白合? :scratchhead:

As long as there’s a “political party”, there is always 内斗. It’s the same, here, there and everywhere.

A 蓝白 在野大联盟 would be the best outcome for the Republic of China. I would love to see a 柯 / 侯 combined ticket.

[pirate]

Maclaren\" post_id=\"2090642\" time=\"1669594737\" user_id=\"200115:

Hi,
Interesting comments....could you please kindly explain why is it .......一己之欲........添烦添乱 so that I can understand. Thanks.

Why is it not? It seems quite self-explanatory.

[floppy]

pirate\" post_id=\"2090827\" time=\"1669660349\" user_id=\"66252:

Why is it not? It seems quite self-explanatory.

Chinese not so good (actually, ang moh not so good also).
I use Google translate.
It says 一己之欲, 添烦添乱 is \"one's own desire, add trouble and add chaos\".
Yah... pretty self-explanatory.