2023 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2011)

[radiant00]

su27\" post_id=\"2123803\" time=\"1701077688\" user_id=\"80180:

Kid got PSLE score AL4.

Is it safe to put

MGS IP
NYGH IP
RGS IP

MGS IP only got 120 slots per cohort. Less DSA kids. Perhaps only 100 slots. I wonder if there are alot of AL4s kids registering for MGS IP this year too given the easy PSLE.

Also. NYGH got their affiliation intakes.

RGS seems safer bet with no affiliation.

My only worry is MGS full take up. Then my second and third choices may not materialise as probably filled up by other kids in the round of first choice.

Can share some advice? Thanks

I have to say this is an invalid question - with AL4, you can literally select 1 school only and you'll surely be admitted. The statistics has showed that the S1 selection will naturally spread out across many different schools. There is a very slight chance for few of them to drop 1 point but you are worried with AL4?

[CoolChillPapa]

Is it possible for AL4 or AL5 student not to get into his/her first choice? Practically it is not possible. The school doors are open for any AL4 or AL5 students. Unless the applications for a particular secondary school is flooded by AL4/5 students, it is not possible. Even in theory it might be a no. There may be abut 300-400 AL4 students (boys and girls). Let’s say if all of AL4 boys (~150-200) apply for say RI secondary only, there would still be enough spaces for them assuming each cohort is 200 for RI.


So why would AL4 student not get his/her first choice? It is unthinkable…but it is possible if AL4 boys want to play punk and put first 5 choices as MGS, SCGS, Cedar, RGS, NYGH and the last choice RI. So theoretically, the boy will get his 6th choice…just for self-amusement…

[ChiefKiasu]

CoolChillPapa\" post_id=\"2123921\" time=\"1701157364\" user_id=\"203438:

Is it possible for AL4 or AL5 student not to get into his/her first choice? Practically it is not possible. The school doors are open for any AL4 or AL5 students. Unless the applications for a particular secondary school is flooded by AL4/5 students, it is not possible. Even in theory it might be a no. There may be abut 300-400 AL4 students (boys and girls). Let's say if all of AL4 boys (~150-200) apply for say RI secondary only, there would still be enough spaces for them assuming each cohort is 200 for RI.

So why would AL4 student not get his/her first choice? It is unthinkable...but it is possible if AL4 boys want to play punk and put first 5 choices as MGS, SCGS, Cedar, RGS, NYGH and the last choice RI. So theoretically, the boy will get his 6th choice....just for self-amusement....

I'm just curious. How do you know there are (~150-200) AL4 kids? I think there would be about 50,000 students per PSLE cohort and ~200 AL4 seems a bit small leh :idea: .

[libran269]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2123923\" time=\"1701159649\" user_id=\"3:

I'm just curious. How do you know there are (~150-200) AL4 kids? I think there would be about 50,000 students per PSLE cohort and ~200 AL4 seems a bit small leh :idea: .

Even I find 200 number small :). there are 180 primary schools. Say 5-6 get AL 4/5. Then this is 900 students. Of course some schools may be many more & fewer too. Averaging out… too many assumptions

[Avenue3]

hi,


some stats

there are about 38000 students this year in PSLE. Usually around 40000.

there are 3300 IP places - usually taken by AL9 or better; some would have missed IP in balloting. Assuming that 10% of top performers are taking O level admission, either by preference or because they are balloted out, students with about AL9 or better will be about 3700 which is about 10% of cohort getting AL9 or better.

We can probably make an arbitrary guess that:
AL4 - 400
AL5 - 500
AL6 - 600
AL7 - 700
AL8 - 800
AL9 - 900

Total: 3900, which is close to 3700 above.

Note: Analysis is arbitrary and for entertainment only.

[ChiefKiasu]

Avenue3\" post_id=\"2123925\" time=\"1701160839\" user_id=\"45412:

...
there are about 38000 students this year in PSLE. Usually around 40000.

there are 3300 IP places - usually taken by AL9 or better; some would have missed IP in balloting. Assuming that 10% of top performers are taking O level admission, either by preference or because they are balloted out, students with about AL9 or better will be about 3700 which is about 10% of cohort getting AL9 or better.

We can probably make an arbitrary guess that:
AL4 - 400
AL5 - 500
AL6 - 600
AL7 - 700
AL8 - 800
AL9 - 900

Total: 3900, which is close to 3700 above.

Note: Analysis is arbitrary and for entertainment only.

Woah. Amazing analysis! :udaman:

But I think you left out the AL10-20 which is the bulk of the people that took PSLE.

[Avenue3]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2123927\" time=\"1701161337\" user_id=\"3:

Woah. Amazing analysis! :udaman:

But I think you left out the AL10-20 which is the bulk of the people that took PSLE.

it is possible to guess by adding 100 to 150 for every AL and then at some point start subtracting 100-200. However, I will refrain from doing it. Anyone can try with an excel sheet. Make sure you get 38000-40000 total.

[SG_KP1]

Regarding the number of AL4s and AL5s, I’ve tried to estimate the total number of Independent School (IP + O + Specialised) vacancies x 1/3 and get around 1,100 (estimate could be off). However, this may not be equal to the total number of AL4s + AL5s because there are a few things we can’t account for.


-MOE can only slice the cohort and make the award cut-off at AL5 or another whole number score (in contrast, they used to be able to set the COP based on 1 t-score point). Hence, the number of kids with the award could be a couple/few hundred over or under the target.

-ESIS is not awarded to non-SC scoring AL4 or AL5.

-Not all students with the award select an Independent School. Does MOE over-issue the award because they know not all students will use it?

With respect to IP, I believe the total figure is about 3,900 (estimated vacancies, matches some MOE releases). I also think AL8 extends beyond 10% of the cohort, but that is debatable.

Anyways, the historical COPs are what they are and the COPs will be whatever they are going to be this year.

Best of luck to all students/parents that are waiting for the posting results. Another year is in the books…

[Avenue3]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2123938\" time=\"1701170008\" user_id=\"188234:

Regarding the number of AL4s and AL5s, I've tried to estimate the total number of Independent School (IP + O + Specialised) vacancies x 1/3 and get around 1,100 (estimate could be off). However, this may not be equal to the total number of AL4s + AL5s because there are a few things we can't account for.

-MOE can only slice the cohort and make the award cut-off at AL5 or another whole number score (in contrast, they used to be able to set the COP based on 1 t-score point). Hence, the number of kids with the award could be a couple/few hundred over or under the target.

-ESIS is not awarded to non-SC scoring AL4 or AL5.

-Not all students with the award select an Independent School. Does MOE over-issue the award because they know not all students will use it?

With respect to IP, I believe the total figure is about 3,900 (estimated vacancies, matches some MOE releases). I also think AL8 extends beyond 10% of the cohort, but that is debatable.

Anyways, the historical COPs are what they are and the COPs will be whatever they are going to be this year.

Best of luck to all students/parents that are waiting for the posting results. Another year is in the books...

If we remove NUSHS and SOTA from 3900, it may be 3500 available places for PSLE based IP schools. Not sure if that is the case.


The Sunday Times Page 3, October 7, 2012 says that there are about 4000 IP places. We can Google this.

[SG_KP1]

Avenue3\" post_id=\"2123939\" time=\"1701172078\" user_id=\"45412:

If we remove NUSHS and SOTA from 3900, it may be 3500 available places for PSLE based IP schools. Not sure if that is the case.


The Sunday Times Page 3, October 7, 2012 says that there are about 4000 IP places. We can Google this.

I think NUSH is in the 3,900 but SOTA is not. However, a student can use ESIS at SOTA, so I believe SOTA's cohort size is likely in the ESIS vacancies.

A more recent Parliamentary Reply has the average IP intake at 3,900 per year.

Anyways, we'll never get the exact figures, these are all ballpark. The COPs also depend on cohort performance, DSA intake, and choice, so while interesting, all of the number crunching is only worth so much.

Hope you guys get the first choice :rahrah: :rahrah: .