Opinions of the Primary School Registration System

[Jav]

Chief has highlighted some issues more in depth than just the primary registration. Thanks, Chief. Hope that government hear your view as this is a real issue to be tackle b4 it really arrives. Scary Le!

[Ririan]

One of the best posts ever.

ChiefKiasu:

We have been tracking P1 registration for the last 4 years. Every year, after Phase 2C, there will usually be calls for changes to the registration processes, to change the perceived \"unfairness\" of the system.

However, we have noticed that emotions against PRs have been growing much stronger since a couple of years back. It started as a murmur in 2009, to being quietly expressed in 2010, and it is out in force this year. This is not only a trend in KiasuParents.com, but it is present in almost all other social media. It is not just the Temasek Review. If you have time to spare, just read Yahoo Singapore's news on the http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/poly-student-sentenced-13-years-jail-rape-044013672.html. THAT, my friends, is xenophobia. What's more. It's on a global media platform.

That feeling has been growing stronger ever since the Opposition made it a campaigning issue in the recent elections. I noted at that point, that it was a dangerous card for ANY party to play. They did, anyway. In recent days, whether it is about the potential rise in transport fees, or the perceived difficulty in securing places in Primary schools, or giving of scholarships to non-Singaporeans, the PR issue has always been brought up as the source of problems, not only in social media, but even in mainstream media. Pictures abound in STOMP showing examples of bad behavior of \"foreigners\" in public places.

Pandora's box has been opened. And we are only seeing the beginning of the problems.

In this thread, most of the argument is centred around Singaporeans' birthright to good schools and that PRs should remain as 2nd class citizens and should only be allowed into the schools after \"pure-bred\" Singaporeans have made their choices. It is not possible to argue against the pragmatism and rationality of such an argument - this is our home, and the last thing we want is to have our \"guests\" take the best cut of the pie, especially if it is something that we desperately want for our beloved children.

For parents who have had trouble getting your children into your choice schools, we can fully comprehend your frustration at the system. As a father, I would be devastated if I can't get my child into the school I want, especially when I have invested in optimising my chances by buying and moving to a new property and faithfully taking leave to do PV every week. I would demand changes to system. I would ask why someone else who was \"less deserving\" was given the seat which \"rightfully\" belongs to my child. And since the cause is due to the \"influx of PRs\", I would question the manpower policies which caused this situation in the first place.

But if we pause to consider this: suppose the authorities do put in measures to further reduce the chances of PRs, by removing them from Phases 1 to 2B, would it actually improve our chances? My conjecture is: it will not. For a simple reason. More PRs will just become citizens. They will be indistinguishable from you and me, the \"sons of the soil\" as some say. Will we be really happier that more PVs have become citizens? No, we will not, because the jams, the competition for places in schools and property, etc, will remain.

But such a policy will cast in stone the reality of a \"2nd-class citizen\", where there is a sizable population of Singaporeans who are not born of Singapore, and thus treated with disdain by the \"sons of the soil\". Over time, we will become a fragmented society. Think apartheid, where restaurants tout signs saying: \"Dogs and blacks not allowed\".

Our strength as a nation has always been based on our high tolerance and respect for diversity. \"Regardless of race, language, or religion\". That's the cornerstone of our nation. We cannot possibly pledge ourselves as Singaporeans if we choose to pigeon-hole or stereotype specific communities as \"trouble-makers\" or \"greedy and street-smart rich PRs who will always solve problems through bribery\". For every one such example who is a PR, we can probably find another who is a \"pure-bred\" Singaporean.

We are not a homogeneous society like many other countries in Europe and Asia. We have always been a mix of peoples. And we will always be a mix of peoples. We don't blink an eyelid when we see Malays and Indians walking amongst Chinese, which would have certainly raised eyebrows in many parts of Europe and Japan. For this, we have to thank the wisdom of our fore-fathers who recognised that for our unique community to succeed, everyone must practice tolerance just so we can all focus single-mindedly on nation-building. And personally, I have taken pride in explaining this unique feature of our nation to many of my foreign friends, who would listen in awe and wonder how we managed to do this.

It is my fear that this is all about to change. I have never seen such an open outburst of emotions against any specific community in all my life here as a Singaporean, as I have seen in the last 6 months. As Singaporeans feel more and more threatened by our invited guests, who are no longer just a minority in our society, resentment will fester between the different communities. It will take only a small event to bring things to a head. And when that happens, we will all suffer in a country fraught with internal strife.

Who's fault is it that created the current situation? I think this question is moot, and no longer relevant. What I think is more important is for our Government to speak up on this issue, to openly recognise that there is indeed a major socio-cultural problem that is taking root in our society, and to device and execute plans to arrest the problem before it becomes terminal.

It is easy for our Government to increase class sizes or build more schools, and more rails and trains to scale our infrastructure to meet the needs of our much increased population. It is also easy for our Government to revise their manpower policies to apply greater restraint and better control the rate of population growth.

But it will be impossible to repair the trust that we Singaporeans once had with each other, and our willingness to be good neighbours with each other because we are all in the same boat, regardless of our race, language, and origins.

[Jav]

Can someone enlighten me how to calculate the chances if there are PRs involved in the balloting? For example, there are 76 applicants balloting for 63 available places. When all 76 applicants are Citizens, the chances of successful balloting would be 83% (63/76 x 100%), but if there are 14PRs amongst the 76 applicants, what’s the calculation like yeah?

[qms]

Jav:

Can someone enlighten me how to calculate the chances if there are PRs involved in the balloting? For example, there are 76 applicants balloting for 63 available places. When all 76 applicants are Citizens, the chances of successful balloting would be 83% (63/76 x 100%), but if there are 14PRs amongst the 76 applicants, what's the calculation like yeah?

76 applicants - 14 PRs and 62 Singaporeans

Each Singaporean has 2 balloting slips --> 124 balloting slips for Singaporeans.

Total no. of balloting slips = 124 + 14 = 138

63 places = 138 balloting slips

Chance of being balloted for the Singaporean = (63/138) X 2 = 91.3%.

For the PR, chance of being balloted = 45.7%.

:scratchhead:

[KSH]

(63x2) / (14x1)+(62x2) x 100% = 91.3%

[ChiefKiasu]

Jav:

Can someone enlighten me how to calculate the chances if there are PRs involved in the balloting? For example, there are 76 applicants balloting for 63 available places. When all 76 applicants are Citizens, the chances of successful balloting would be 83% (63/76 x 100%), but if there are 14PRs amongst the 76 applicants, what's the calculation like yeah?

Let me try to reactivate my rusty understanding of probability.

Assume the following scenario:
10 parents going for 1 vacancies. All are Singaporeans.
In this case, the probability of any parent getting a place is 1/10 or 0.1.

Next scenario:
10 parents going for 1 vacancies. 5 are Singaporeans. 5 are PRs.
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 1st draw will be 10/(10+5) = 0.67

Next scenario:
10 parents going for 5 vacancies. 5 are Singaporeans. 5 are PRs.
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 1st draw will be 10/(10+5) = 0.67
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 2nd draw will be 8/(8+5) = 0.62
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 3rd draw will be 6/(6+5) = 0.55
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 4th draw will be 4/(4+5) = 0.44
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 5th draw will be 2/(2+5) = 0.29

So the probability that Singaporeans will win all 5 seats is 0.67x0.62x0.55x0.44x0.29=0.03, or 3%

Compare this with the case before the policy of assigning SG with 1 additional ballot slip.
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 1st draw will be 5/10 = 0.5
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 2nd draw will be 4/9 = 0.44
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 3rd draw will be 3/8 = 0.38
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 4th draw will be 2/7 = 0.29
The probability that a Singaporean will win the 5th draw will be 1/6 = 0.17

So the probability that Singaporeans will win all 5 seats is
0.5x0.44x0.38x0.29x0.17=0.004, or 0.4%

So we cannot help but see PRs winning ballots, not because they dominate the ballot, but because it is statistically difficult for that NOT to happen even though they appear to only have \"half\" the chance of Singaporeans. That additional ballot only boosted chances of Singaporeans slightly during balloting (based on the above scenario of an equal number of SG and PR). Of course, one can argue that SG's chances have been boosted by 10 times (from 0.4% to 3%), but the danger in interpreting it this way is that we might all get upset once again when PRs continue to win the ballot. The math doesn't lie.

[Jav]

Thank u v much. These r the numbers for ACSJ P2C btw. So actually by giving 1 additional slip to SG citizens has reduced the chances for PR quite a lot. So it shows that gahmen has already done something to prioritize Citizen!

[ChiefKiasu]

Jav:

Thank u v much. These r the numbers for ACSJ P2C btw. So actually by giving 1 additional slip to SG citizens has reduced the chances for PR quite a lot. So it shows that gahmen has already done something to prioritize Citizen!

No. The way it was calculated is incorrect. That additional ballot chance does not significantly increase the odds for Singaporeans. Please read my above post.

[Jav]

Chief, can u elaborate further please? We are practicing our Maths skill here & this could be one of gifted math question leh!

[Jav]

Ooops very chim! Let me digest first & try to understand.