COE trends

[ohdaddy]

dicky:

COE drop, drop the drop, drop, drop....


Hopefully, some more :xedfingers:

Might increase the next round as people would be rushing in since Cat A and B dropped.

[cteo101]

COE

AUGUST 2011 2nd Open Bidding Exercise has ended on 17/08/2011 16:00 hrs
Results for AUGUST 2011 2nd Open Bidding Exercise
Category \t Quota \t QP($) PQP($)
A \tCAR (1600CC & BELOW) & TAXI \t557 \t49,301 \t52,288
B \tCAR (ABOVE 1600CC) \t 353 \t65,521 \t68,019
C \tGOODS VEHICLE & BUS \t 245 \t32,289 \t32,248
D \tMOTORCYCLE \t 387 \t1,999 \t2,174
E \tOPEN \t 337 \t67,000

[dicky]

Thanks but there are 2 prices CAT A - D. Which is the price we should refer to?

[dicky]

Thanks but there are 2 prices CAT A - D. Which is the price we should refer to?

[MMM]

The car dealer called me on friday saying that they secured our COE in last week’s bidding… car coming in end Oct. Think when it dropped, they quickly grabbed… So sad hoping it would be higher so that our paper value is higher as anyway the price is already fixed so the higher the better.

[cteo101]

PQP is prevailing quota premium, i believe thats the cost to renew and existing coe.

so should be looking at QP numbers for new cars

[dicky]

cteo101:

PQP is prevailing quota premium, i believe thats the cost to renew and existing coe.

so should be looking at QP numbers for new cars

If that's the case, COE dropped. Yyyyeeeesssss.........

Am waiting the drop to change our car leh. :oops:

[cteo101]

hahaha, time to start prowling sgcarmart lol

[dicky]

COE is coming down (3x),

COE is coming down, my DH...

Good news, else difficult to make my DH change car leh... :imcool:

[atrecord]

unless got another recession, else i dun see COE dropping significantly anytime soon.


given the already crowded roads, govt is unlikely to change the formula for car ownership or allow a bigger increase each year. with COE (hence new cars prices) being so high, more existing car owners will continue driving old cars and not scrap them. With fewer scraps, there will be fewer COEs put back into the pool of new COEs available, so the number of COEs per month will not change.

Now the trend is every month will see more people wanting to buy new cars, than the number of COE available. As a result, demand more than supply so premium is sky high.

We assume demand is pretty constant (dynamics playing it out), so if supply doesn’t increase, premium should stay high. If there is recession, demand will likely decrease, and premium will drop.

During 2005-2009, the demand was not likely very different from now (again, the dynamics at play), but the supply was much higher then, so the same number of buyers each month had more COEs to bid, hence didn’t have to pay so much to succeed.

Until the COE numbers increase, or there is a recession, I think the premium will remain around there.

Oh, if govt changes rules again, to limit loan to 70% again, then demand might again go down…

So looks like i will have to drive my 06 car till 10 yr old…