Population woes
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3Boys:
I knew about the measures to cool off the property market.
Good grief, have you not been reading the papers??WeiHan:
I just want to know.
Easy credit is known to cause bubbles. What measures will the government be taking to prevent a housing bubble?
How many rounds of dampening measures have we had since 2010? Tharman just spoke about this last week!
But I getting more at the easy credit, why should we imitate western countries in providing easy credit to the extent of encouraging consumption base on loan?
I get banks calling me nowaday asking me to take loan. For what, it will increase bad loan in the long run. Is it a sign that banks can't make enough loan to productive growing businesses and they have to tap into personal consumption market which has a much lower credit rating? -
WeiHan:
I knew about the measures to cool off the property market.
Good grief, have you not been reading the papers??3Boys:
[quote=\"WeiHan\"]I just want to know.
Easy credit is known to cause bubbles. What measures will the government be taking to prevent a housing bubble?
How many rounds of dampening measures have we had since 2010? Tharman just spoke about this last week!
But I getting more at the easy credit, why should we imitate western countries in providing easy credit to the extent of encouraging consumption base on loan?
I get banks calling me nowaday asking me to take loan. For what, it will increase bad loan in the long run. Is it a sign that banks can't make enough loan to productive growing businesses and they have to tap into personal consumption market which has a much lower credit rating?[/quote]How do you propose to tighten credit further? The rules on down payments for second properties have already been ratcheted up significantly in the last 24 months, and that's where the majority of cheap money is going, causing that bubble you are talking about. The other 2 ways are to limit capital flows, like what Malaysia did during the 1997 financial crisis (this is very drastic and should be avoided unless in a crisis, in my view), OR, raise interest rates, which will cause SGD to appreciate against USD and killing our exports.
There are no good solutions, only less bad ones. Central bankers around the world are struggling with this problem right now.
Anyhow, since I am not the finance minister, I suggest you go to http://www.gov.sg/government/web/content/govsg/classic/factually and post the question there for a professional answer.
They have been talking about this for ages already and everything I have written has been published in op-eds in the press including online, but I guess some people's knee jerk reaction is always that the g'ment is ignorant and stupid and just sitting on their hands. -
3Boys:
Overall.. I hv no issue with your analysis.. if you say there is not enough talents locally.. ok.. let's just accept that first..
In the final analysis it IS about the Singaporean, it always is!
However, so often.. we came across many FTs which doesn't seems to possess the \"talent\" at all..
Let's say your argument is totally valid and that FT policy is essential. I feel that there should be proper regulations and enforcement to ensure the quality of imported FTs.
I always wondered.. How did the \"FTs\" actually passed the companies interviews given their qualifications.. is it because they are cheap?
Also, there are many many cases of fraud.. And I can tell you, many times, some relevant departments (lets PUT it this way in case any legal issues) aren't even keen to enforce. You make a report, they may investigate if there are already sufficient evidence to start with, instead of launching an investigate to probe possible wrong doings.
And, take an example of S Pass requirement that salary must be direct credit to bank via GIRO. How many companies actually do that? and did the authorities check via some automated system? the companies come up with all kind of excuses and get away with it. w/o GIRO it is very difficult to enforce that the companies are actually paying the employee per the S pass requirements!
In summary, in theory, proper FT policy is essential for survival.. let's accept it first.
But as currently, very weak control for the policy to produce it's intended effect. Population overloaded with not the kind of FTs that we need or desire.
In the past, pple say FTs are hardworking, committed, posses skills that locals lack etc.. I can more or less agree with that.. but NOW, I do NOT agree with that! FTs nowadays are not like FTs in the past. Maybe bcoz it is too lax now.. -
3Boys:
What I meant was that prices have to reflect fundamentals. In this case, property price is correlated to population growth in the very long run. The intermediate or short term is then affected by economic and credit cycles. In other words, I am seeing an oscillating property price which is correlated to economic and credit cycle superimposed on a general rising trend which is reflected by population growth.
You have completely stood logic on its head.WeiHan:
It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn't increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn't choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors.
This is similar to all price movement in market. Short term price fluctuation can be related to speculation (which is largely correlated with easy credit) but long term price always revert to reflect the fundamentals (mainly supply and demand). -
WeiHan:
What I meant was that prices have to reflect fundamentals. In this case, property price is correlated to population growth in the very long run. The intermediate or short term is then
You have completely stood logic on its head.3Boys:
[quote=\"WeiHan\"]It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn't increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn't choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors.
affected by economic and credit cycles. In other words, I am seeing an oscillating property price which is correlated to economic and credit cycle superimposed on a general rising trend which is reflected by population growth.
This is similar to all price movement in market. Short term price fluctuation can be related to speculation (which is largely correlated with easy credit) but long term price always revert to reflect the fundamentals (mainly supply and demand).[/quote]Yes, I understand what you are saying. Population density is one driver for property prices, but not the only one, and if I may say so, not even the most important one. -
limlim:
Absolutely - it is not weak control but rather lack of control. They think they could depend on companies to enforce; which we all know is a fallacy.(or it is just our govt's excuse for the lack of control?)
But as currently, very weak control for the policy to produce it's intended effect. Population overloaded with not the kind of FTs that we need or desire.3Boys:
In the final analysis it IS about the Singaporean, it always is!
In the past, pple say FTs are hardworking, committed, posses skills that locals lack etc.. I can more or less agree with that.. but NOW, I do NOT agree with that! FTs nowadays are not like FTs in the past. Maybe bcoz it is too lax now..
So many fraudulent cases, fake degrees, with unscrupulous companies or agents in cahoots with these foreign workers, etc., all go unpunished. The word is “GREED”. :mad:
Why Singapore worker’s productivity so low? We are allowing in mass influx low skill Fake Talents on the cheap.
Perhaps before the 6 million mark is breached, nothing would be done to stop the influx. :sad: -
onemore:
Perhaps before the 6 million mark is breached, nothing would be done to stop the influx. :sad:
Apparently our politicians are banking on \"size\" to sustain the economy; if they could find a better solution now, they would have applied it--considering how unpopular their \"grow-population-to-boost-economy\" policy had been (and they are fully aware of it)..
Question is, after that 6 million mark is breached, or they can't grow the size any further, what are they going to do then? -
3Boys:
It' s demand and supply. If supply can't keep up with demand, price will still go up.. Can the increase in housing suply keep up with the increase in population?
Yes, I understand what you are saying. Population density is one driver for property prices, but not the only one, and if I may say so, not even the most important one. -
mum_sugoku:
It's not that simple. Please avoid drawing superficial conclusions, just from the property price index you over the last 2 decades you will see that the correlation of population and property prices is a poor one. I wrote a post on that earlier in this thread.
It' s demand and supply. If supply can't keep up with demand, price will still go up.. Can the increase in housing suply keep up with the increase in population?3Boys:
Yes, I understand what you are saying. Population density is one driver for property prices, but not the only one, and if I may say so, not even the most important one. -
3Boys:
It's not that simple. Please avoid drawing superficial conclusions, just from the property price index you over the last 2 decades you will see that the correlation of population and property prices is a poor one. I wrote a post on that earlier in this thread.[/quote]The property \"bubble\"?
It' s demand and supply. If supply can't keep up with demand, price will still go up.. Can the increase in housing suply keep up with the increase in population?mum_sugoku:
[quote=\"3Boys\"]
Yes, I understand what you are saying. Population density is one driver for property prices, but not the only one, and if I may say so, not even the most important one.
But what causes the \"bubble\" in the first place? Could it be that bubble started to form at a time when supply was unable to keep up with the rise in population?
Anyway even if the bubble does burst, as long as the supply cannot meet demand, price will still go up, again.
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