Property Views
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vinegar:
The author of that blog post (is that you?) raises some interesting points but also misses out on others. As consumer of info, we should always remember that there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Big numbers attract eyeballs but not necessary tells the whole picture.According to URA, 15,085 units (17,827 units including ECs) remained unsold as at the end of 2nd Quarter 2017. The vacancy rate of completed private residential units (excluding ECs) remained unchanged at 8.1 percent.
Jones Lang LaSalle’s figures show that the 17 collective sale sites closed since last year have 3,141 existing homes. If all of these home owners need a replacement private residential unit, they are at most consuming only one-fifth of these unsold units, not forgetting the fact that there will be 12,700 new units to be launched in the next two years from the en bloc sites.
What if many of the collective sale owners are keeping the sale proceeds for retirement and opt for a cheaper HDB home?
Is our population growth and home buyers able to create a housing demand fast and big enough to consume the surge in supply?
Above all, developers are under the restriction to sell all the units from the collective sale within five years or pay 15 percent ABSD of the land price.
The author quoted JLL, but http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/collective-sale-fever-how-much-longer-will-it-last:
[quote]Consultancy JLL said the 17 residential collective sales sealed since January last year could yield an estimated 10,000 to 11,600 new homes. About half of these could be launched for sale next year.
JLL argues that this will be timely as the pipeline supply of unsold, uncompleted private homes had dwindled to 15,085 units as at June 30 - down 29.8 per cent from 21,489 units a year earlier.[/quote]A healthy market doesn't have a 1-to-1 replacement ratio, or 0% vacancy rate. What JLL is arguing, and developer sort-of agreeing, is that there has to be an increase in their pipeline of unsold, uncompleted private homes to keep up with their demand forecast and to keep supply at a healthy level. The current estimates are too low for their liking, hence, their eagerness to to chase after enbloc sales. -
floppy:
A healthy market doesn't have a 1-to-1 replacement ratio, or 0% vacancy rate. What JLL is arguing, and developer sort-of agreeing, is that there has to be an increase in their pipeline of unsold, uncompleted private homes to keep up with their demand forecast and to keep supply at a healthy level. The current estimates are too low for their liking, hence, their eagerness to to chase after enbloc sales.[/quote] :rotflmao: totally v true! I done Stats , can be massaged to a perfect data or liking
The author of that blog post (is that you?) raises some interesting points but also misses out on others. As consumer of info, we should always remember that there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Big numbers attract eyeballs but not necessary tells the whole picture.
The author quoted JLL, but http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/collective-sale-fever-how-much-longer-will-it-last:
[quote]Consultancy JLL said the 17 residential collective sales sealed since January last year could yield an estimated 10,000 to 11,600 new homes. About half of these could be launched for sale next year.
JLL argues that this will be timely as the pipeline supply of unsold, uncompleted private homes had dwindled to 15,085 units as at June 30 - down 29.8 per cent from 21,489 units a year earlier. -
MyPillow:
You should join the Civil Service and you would probably have a stellar career.
:rotflmao: totally v true! I done Stats , can be massaged to a perfect data or liking
The G is master at massaging stats to fit their narrative :rotflmao: -
floppy:
OT
You should join the Civil Service and you would probably have a stellar career.MyPillow:
:rotflmao: totally v true! I done Stats , can be massaged to a perfect data or liking
The G is master at massaging stats to fit their narrative :rotflmao:
:rotflmao: out from stellar division coz tai chi n massaging skills not up to THE standard -
I have a friend who used to flip properties and made money. She said if last time, she would ask me to cheong but now, she also unsure what to advise me.
Ask me to be mentally prepared, if few months cannot find a tenant, at night maybe cannot sleep.
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Is there an en bloc fever upcoming again recently? Just curious.
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I am just confused; is the property market doing well?
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Already dropped 14 quarters since
2013. Must see next 1-2 quarters whether the uptrend is confirmed.
ABSD and TDSR effectly kill off the market. Rental also plunged until no meat. Floppy also said rental will continue to head south. Some resale units selling vacant.
I know 2 families after their homes were enbloc, they kept most of the monies for retirement and bought HDB at outskirts. -
Noted rental will continue heading south
Yes, am one hoping to sell to help fund retirement -
starlight1968sg:
Selling HDB or private ?Noted rental will continue heading south
Yes, am one hoping to sell to help fund retirement
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