2010 S1 Posting Exercise
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mangorice:
Depends on how many places the new secondary schools and existing secondary schools have. The COP is not preset; it is a function of applications received. For example, if I have 300 places at ABC Secondary, and my 300th-ranked student has an aggregate of 211 (although my 299th-ranked has 244), my COP is listed as 211 because that is the score my last-ranked student had.Looking at the stats, difference on number of students that passed psle in 2009(47,117) and 2010(43,826) is approx 3000+. Percentage qualifying for express(63.1%) and normal A&T(22.4% & 11.6%) in 2009. Percentage in 2010, qualifying for express 63.5%, normal A&T (22.1% & 11.7%). How does the difference in both cohorts affect the posting of students? and COP tis yr?
Another question:- If parents select secondary schools strictly to the COP of previous year, doesnt that mean that COP will least likely to be lowered??
just some points for parents to ponder.
The cohort size seldom affects COP much because MOE ensures sufficient spaces, and because the candidature is so huge, there will be some statistical behaviour towards a skewed normal distribution.
If the distribution was a flat aggregate distribution from 1 to (for example) 300, and you had 45,000 students, then each score would have about 150 at that score. But it isn't flat, it's curved. So near the median scores, you might have many hundreds or even thousands with the same grade.
If you then look up all the schools in MOE database, you can make some sort of guess where those schools lie on the curve. It's only a guess, though, because we don't necessarily know the internal distribution in each school. -
Anyone starting a new thread "S1 Posting Result" ?
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mangorice:
Hi mangorice,Looking at the stats, difference on number of students that passed psle in 2009(47,117) and 2010(43,826) is approx 3000+. Percentage qualifying for express(63.1%) and normal A&T(22.4% & 11.6%) in 2009. Percentage in 2010, qualifying for express 63.5%, normal A&T (22.1% & 11.7%). How does the difference in both cohorts affect the posting of students? and COP tis yr?
Another question:- If parents select secondary schools strictly to the COP of previous year, doesnt that mean that COP will least likely to be lowered??
just some points for parents to ponder.
Your stats show that the percentage of students qualifying for Express, Normal-academic and Normal-Technical have remained nearly same between 2009 and 2010. The only major difference is that 2010 chort was significantly smaller than 2009.
In my view, this should lead to a fall in COP this year since the number of seats available in secondary schools has remained more or less the same between 2009 and 2010. -
Kiasu Friend:
Hi Kiasu Friend,
Hi mangorice,mangorice:
Looking at the stats, difference on number of students that passed psle in 2009(47,117) and 2010(43,826) is approx 3000+. Percentage qualifying for express(63.1%) and normal A&T(22.4% & 11.6%) in 2009. Percentage in 2010, qualifying for express 63.5%, normal A&T (22.1% & 11.7%). How does the difference in both cohorts affect the posting of students? and COP tis yr?
Another question:- If parents select secondary schools strictly to the COP of previous year, doesnt that mean that COP will least likely to be lowered??
just some points for parents to ponder.
Your stats show that the percentage of students qualifying for Express, Normal-academic and Normal-Technical have remained nearly same between 2009 and 2010. The only major difference is that 2010 chort was significantly smaller than 2009.
In my view, this should lead to a fall in COP this year since the number of seats available in secondary schools has remained more or less the same between 2009 and 2010.
Did some calculation based on moe's psle results in 2009 & 2010. You are right that the percentage of students qualifying for all 3 streams have remained the same. But because of the difference in the cohorts for both years (48,541 and 45,049), the difference in numbers are as follows:-
Express stream = (30,629 -28,606) = 2,023 students (ie abt 87 classes,40 students per class)
NormalA = 918 students, NormalT = 360 students
There are 4 secondary schools merged into 2 schools and 1 new secondary school in 2011.
One thing for sure, no one has the actual number of secondary 1 classes per secondary school to do the minute calculation. There could be more or less secondary one classes from each school as well.
I did the above calculation hoping of course that COP for 2011 will drop in contrast with other opinion that this year COP will not drop because it was relatively an easy paper. Well, I may be wrong in any case. -
mangorice:
Hi Kiasu Friend,
Hi mangorice,Kiasu Friend:
[quote=\"mangorice\"]Looking at the stats, difference on number of students that passed psle in 2009(47,117) and 2010(43,826) is approx 3000+. Percentage qualifying for express(63.1%) and normal A&T(22.4% & 11.6%) in 2009. Percentage in 2010, qualifying for express 63.5%, normal A&T (22.1% & 11.7%). How does the difference in both cohorts affect the posting of students? and COP tis yr?
Another question:- If parents select secondary schools strictly to the COP of previous year, doesnt that mean that COP will least likely to be lowered??
just some points for parents to ponder.
Your stats show that the percentage of students qualifying for Express, Normal-academic and Normal-Technical have remained nearly same between 2009 and 2010. The only major difference is that 2010 chort was significantly smaller than 2009.
In my view, this should lead to a fall in COP this year since the number of seats available in secondary schools has remained more or less the same between 2009 and 2010.
Did some calculation based on moe's psle results in 2009 & 2010. You are right that the percentage of students qualifying for all 3 streams have remained the same. But because of the difference in the cohorts for both years (48,541 and 45,049), the difference in numbers are as follows:-
Express stream = (30,629 -28,606) = 2,023 students (ie abt 87 classes,40 students per class)
NormalA = 918 students, NormalT = 360 students
There are 4 secondary schools merged into 2 schools and 1 new secondary school in 2011.
One thing for sure, no one has the actual number of secondary 1 classes per secondary school to do the minute calculation. There could be more or less secondary one classes from each school as well.
I did the above calculation hoping of course that COP for 2011 will drop in contrast with other opinion that this year COP will not drop because it was relatively an easy paper. Well, I may be wrong in any case.[/quote]Pardon my error above, Express stream difference = 2023/40 students, shld be approx 50 classes -
Why would the above situation result in a fall of COP? Fewer students would mean that the topmost schools would be filled but the less popular schools would have smaller class sizes or fewer classes.
Example: look at ACS(I) — the new campus at Dover back in 1994 was designed for 1200 students, class size about 20+ (in theory). By the time they renovated in 2003-4, the original blocks were holding almost 2000 students. Presently, class sizes can exceed 36 and their IB (pre-university) classes, supposedly to be at 20 (25 max) are at nearly 30. The total population is more like 3000 now.
If the demand is there, schools can accommodate. If schools decide to tighten up despite demand, the COP will rise. Market forces rule, and the schools most in demand are in a position to control their COP most.
This is why a change in overall population may not affect COP at all. Generally, the COP is affected most by randomness as a school falls down the market’s informal ranking. Some schools may have to take every student that applies regardless of t-score. -
Tomorrow is the day! Good luck to all who are waiting for S1 posting.
Do turn on the sms ringing tone at the side of your bed. Understand the first sms appear around 6 am+ for the last two years. -
Received SMS at 7.00am today.Posted to RI.
Thanks to Kiasu forum members who were of great support to me. -
Almighty:
Received SMS at 7.00am today.Posted to RI.
Thanks to Kiasu forum members who were of great support to me.
what is your son T score? -
Almighty:
Received SMS at 7.00am today.Posted to RI.
Thanks to Kiasu forum members who were of great support to me.
:congrats:
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