Population woes
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Way2GO:
HK bus hostage.. that famous incident......
:rotflmao: :rotflmao:limlim:
ask that company to fo to the land that invents the invisible gun?![](\"http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa111/wealthmonster/invisblegun.jpg\")
http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa111/wealthmonster/invisblegun.jpg\">
wat incident was dis?
d policeman wasn't even looking at tgt but machiam like calefare posing for camera. :rotflmao: -
3Boys:
Whoa, since u put it dat way, I must first distance n disqualify myself as an arm-chair expert.So, to all the arm-chair experts out there casting bricks at government policy, which is the greater culprit for property price rise. Easy credit and low interest rates, or population influx?
Suggest you check out the rise in landed property prices over the last 3 years, where there is minimal foreign participation.
<http://blog.iproperty.com.sg/landed-property-reserved-for-singaporeans/>
As an observer
, d main culprits r both local n foreign property speculators n investors, aggravated by d gahmen's policy of accentuating FT influx, PR approvals n allowing foreigners to purchase certain landed property asset class eg Sentosa Cove in recent years.
Look at dis graph fr URA:![](\"http://i49.tinypic.com/2nl688y.jpg\")
We hv always had comparative easy credit n low interest rates, but nvr d kinda price spike seen fr Q1 2009 which was also ard d time d floodgates were opened to more FT intake till it was scaled down after GE 2011. -
limlim:
I have no issue with some SMEs having to relocate out of Singapore due to a reduction of FW quota. However, do bear in mind that these SMEs also employ SCs. When they relocate their operations, these SCs will lose their jobs.
The fittest survive, and the species will grow stronger and more resilient. Some SME will survive and grow stronger. They will invest in upgrading of Local workers to execute higher level function and/or operate high tech machinery.mamago:
If no FT/FW, many many many local SME will move to Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar... or fold!
SG will grow into highly efficient, high tech society with highly skilled workers. Necessity is the mother of success. Look at SAF again, for inspiration.
I also have no issue if it causes the remaining SMEs to invest.
What I do have an issue with is the selective application of \"let the fittest survive, and the species will grow stronger and more resilient.\" Tighten the FT/FW quotas. So long as the locals in MNCs and large corporations can have less competition from foreigners, it doesn't matter if the SMEs have to move out and the locals there lose their jobs. This is what I refer to as the NIMBY symdrome. Because a lot of these noises are coming from PMEs in large corporations.
I have said before in other threads that if anything should be reduced, it should be the unskilled FWs. Their influx depresses low-end local wages.
But as I have also commented before, this is not what the people advocating tightening foreign labour want. They want a tightening of PMEs on higher level work passes and employment passes, while at the same time they want the ample supply of unskilled FWs to continue. Why? So they can continue to enjoy low prices at hawker centres, cheap maids, and low conservancy charges. They are educated and highly trained PMEs for goodness sake. They should be lean, mean and able to hold their own against foreign competition. So, how is this not the NIMBY syndrome? -
Way2GO:
We hv always had comparative easy credit n low interest rates, but nvr d kinda price spike seen fr Q1 2009 which was also ard d time d floodgates were opened to more FT intake till it was scaled down after GE 2011.
No we have not. It wasn't so long ago that a $1m loan will require $6,000 in monthly instalment on a 20-25 year loan. That was the rough yardstick we used to measure affordability before mortgage interest dropped from 4-6% to 1-2%.
An apartment that used to fetch a rental of $3,200 before 1997 now fetches about the same. Capital value of that apartment, on the other hand, had increased by about 50% over the same period. This is not due to the influx of foreigners. If it was, rental values would have similarly increased.
It is primarily due to easy credit and low interest rates.
Why is it that developments targeted at foreign buyers still only have lukewarm sales? If you had bought St Regis in 2007 before the Lehmann crisis, you will still be below water now. Foreigners chasing up property prices is a myth created by housing agents.
The latest home loan tightening measures by MAS should serve as a reminder to over enthusiastic home buyers. They should ask themselves whether they will still be able to service that $1m mortgage when instalments go back up to $6,000 a month? They should also bear in mind that if they can't and get into trouble, many others will also be in the same boat at the same time - which means prices may drop and they may find themselves underwater in a property they can neither afford to service or sell. Then what? -
pirate:
No we have not. It wasn't so long ago that a $1m loan will require $6,000 in monthly instalment on a 20-25 year loan. That was the rough yardstick we used to measure affordability before mortgage interest dropped from 4-6% to 1-2%.
ok, ur point noted.
However wat I had in mind when I said comparative interest rates, I was thinking of comparable interest rates in Indonesia n Thailand, where my biz assocaites quoted were at least 3x SG rates. Was aware quite a few Ind. invested in SG properties.pirate:
I can't speak for rental increases across d board, but I m certain (fr 1st hand accounts) dat in at least d last three years, rentals for HDB flats n low-end apartments hv increased. Many of these r occupied by FT/FW.An apartment that used to fetch a rental of $3,200 before 1997 now fetches about the same. Capital value of that apartment, on the other hand, had increased by about 50% over the same period. This is not due to the influx of foreigners. If it was, rental values would have similarly increased.
I think one of d reasons for d higher end rentals not going up was coz more of d FTs were coming in on local terms n not given d generous housing allowances they were previously accustomed to n there was a glut of supply at d higher end .pirate:
Dis cld well be true.Foreigners chasing up property prices is a myth created by housing agents.
Self-serving prophecy which instigate herd instinct.
There was market talk in 2008 dat d property market was on d way down but but instead fr Q1 2009, despite d uncertain economic conditions, it took d reverse turn n has not turned back since.pirate:
Dis has happened before.The latest home loan tightening measures by MAS should serve as a reminder to over enthusiastic home buyers. They should ask themselves whether they will still be able to service that $1m mortgage when instalments go back up to $6,000 a month? They should also bear in mind that if they can't and get into trouble, many others will also be in the same boat at the same time - which means prices may drop and they may find themselves underwater in a property they can neither afford to service or sell. Then what?
Think it was in 1997. Many went underwater. -
pirate:
I have no issue with some SMEs having to relocate out of Singapore due to a reduction of FW quota. However, do bear in mind that these SMEs also employ SCs. When they relocate their operations, these SCs will lose their jobs.
The fittest survive, and the species will grow stronger and more resilient. Some SME will survive and grow stronger. They will invest in upgrading of Local workers to execute higher level function and/or operate high tech machinery.limlim:
[quote=\"mamago\"]
If no FT/FW, many many many local SME will move to Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar... or fold!
SG will grow into highly efficient, high tech society with highly skilled workers. Necessity is the mother of success. Look at SAF again, for inspiration.
I also have no issue if it causes the remaining SMEs to invest.
What I do have an issue with is the selective application of \"let the fittest survive, and the species will grow stronger and more resilient.\" Tighten the FT/FW quotas. So long as the locals in MNCs and large corporations can have less competition from foreigners, it doesn't matter if the SMEs have to move out and the locals there lose their jobs. This is what I refer to as the NIMBY symdrome. Because a lot of these noises are coming from PMEs in large corporations.[/quote]The weaker SMEs will be eliminated, the stronger SME will survive. The locals who lose their jobs at the weaker SMEs can consider it a blessing in disguise as they could subsequently work in the fitter SMEs. Because there is no FTs, the fitter SMEs will employ these locals to make up the workforce.. and keep it lean.
For e.g. instead of 1 skilled local + 10 cheap \"FT\"s, they could employ 5 skilled local workers. The labor need not necessarily go up if they know how to manage properly. If they cannot manage, give way to those that can.
Of course, it would require more effort to manage an operation efficiently with 5 skilled workers, than one with 10~20 unskilled workers.
Many SMEs (construction) just take the easy way out.pirate:
If you take away the FW, there would not be enough workers in the service sector. Note that these sectors, are by nature, labor intensive.I have said before in other threads that if anything should be reduced, it should be the unskilled FWs. Their influx depresses low-end local wages.
But as I have also commented before, this is not what the people advocating tightening foreign labour want. They want a tightening of PMEs on higher level work passes and employment passes, while at the same time they want the ample supply of unskilled FWs to continue. Why? So they can continue to enjoy low prices at hawker centres, cheap maids, and low conservancy charges. They are educated and highly trained PMEs for goodness sake. They should be lean, mean and able to hold their own against foreign competition. So, how is this not the NIMBY syndrome?
Even if you pay high salary, say, same as office white collar worker, are you sure you can get enough pple to do the work? I doubt so.
Next, talking about the pricing. If you pay higher for blue collar worker than white collar jobs, how much higher? If the prices goes up to unbearable level, pple would rather eat at home. Demand will drop. And the hawker stall can go bust.
That's why, I feel that, FW is a necessity..
But PMET is different. If you pay reasonably, there'll be enough locals to want to take the job. -
limlim:
You oversimplify. Not every Singaporean worker can be re-trained to a higher skill level or different skill set. You cannot assume that people who lose their jobs in SME 1 can just move on to SME 2. There will be skill mismatches.
The weaker SMEs will be eliminated, the stronger SME will survive. The locals who lose their jobs at the weaker SMEs can consider it a blessing in disguise as they could subsequently work in the fitter SMEs. Because there is no FTs, the fitter SMEs will employ these locals to make up the workforce.. and keep it lean.
For e.g. instead of 1 skilled local + 10 cheap \"FT\"s, they could employ 5 skilled local workers. The labor need not necessarily go up if they know how to manage properly. If they cannot manage, give way to those that can.
Of course, it would require more effort to manage an operation efficiently with 5 skilled workers, than one with 10~20 unskilled workers.
Many SMEs (construction) just take the easy way out.
In addition, you are assuming that our neighbouring countries do not also have highly skilled workers or workers who can be trained to be highly skilled. Singaporeans are not inherently smarter or more hardworking than people of other nationalities. That is hubris.
If the SME's business can be upgraded through innovation or investment, then it can be upgraded in JB as well. We used to have a significant advantage in infrastructure, but this is being eroded, as is our advantage of having an English speaking workforce. The primary advantages Singapore has now is just political stability, clear rule of law and a business friendly government.
Your SME that is 'fit' in Singapore will find that it can be even fitter if it bases its production elsewhere.
We sell to the world. We don't just sell to Singapore.limlim:
The problem with the labour intensive sector you mention is that, FW or no FW, that work still has to be done here in Singapore. If we continue to import so many FWs to do those work, then it will not solve the population issue. We are just increasing the population of unskilled, lowly educated workers.If you take away the FW, there would not be enough workers in the service sector. Note that these sectors, are by nature, labor intensive.
Even if you pay high salary, say, same as office white collar worker, are you sure you can get enough pple to do the work? I doubt so.
Next, talking about the pricing. If you pay higher for blue collar worker than white collar jobs, how much higher? If the prices goes up to unbearable level, pple would rather eat at home. Demand will drop. And the hawker stall can go bust.
That's why, I feel that, FW is a necessity..
But PMET is different. If you pay reasonably, there'll be enough locals to want to take the job.
Will we still need FWs if we increase the wages of blue collar workers to make it more attractive for locals? Yes, but we won't need as many.
It is not a matter of whether there are enough locals to want to take the job. It is a matter of staying competitive. I can pay somebody $5,000 a month to do nothing in the office but read Kiasuparents. I am sure there will no shortage of locals who want that kind of PME job. But that is not how to run a business.
PMEs are the leaders of a business. They are the business world's commissioned officers. If they cannot withstand foreign competition, how can the company they lead withstand competition? It will only be a matter of time before that company dies. And if all our companies are like that, it will only be a matter of time before our economy dies.
The most vulnerable members of our society are the blue collar workers, not the PMEs. One does not formulate a policy of protecting the strong at the expense of the weak and call ourselves a compassionate society. -
pirate:
That is not necessarily true.
Your SME that is 'fit' in Singapore will find that it can be even fitter if it bases its production elsewhere.
If that is the case, why are the SMEs still here? coz now got cheap FT? if they relocated, can't they get the same cheap FT in that host country? What logic are you talking about? I really catch no ball.pirate:
So? At least the numbers will not be so great.We are just increasing the population of unskilled, lowly educated workers.
And locals remain relevant and skilled workforce.pirate:
If somebody can get that salary and still manage to read KSP, it means that someone is very highly skilled and efficient such that all task are completed with too much time to spare.
It is not a matter of whether there are enough locals to want to take the job. It is a matter of staying competitive. I can pay somebody $5,000 a month to do nothing in the office but read Kiasuparents. I am sure there will no shortage of locals who want that kind of PME job. But that is not how to run a business.
It could also mean there are excess inefficient FTs doing other work, or that someone is waiting for the FTs to complete they work.
The company could trim the excess FTs and manage properly to allow better productivity from the skilled local, and reward accordingly.
That is lean management. Trim off the excess fats.pirate:
It's not that locals cannot withstand competition. It's that some SMEs are not looking at skilled, but cheap. They may get cheap, but not necessarily better and faster. But they don't care.PMEs are the leaders of a business. They are the business world's commissioned officers. If they cannot withstand foreign competition, how can the company they lead withstand competition? It will only be a matter of time before that company dies. And if all our companies are like that, it will only be a matter of time before our economy dies.
The most vulnerable members of our society are the blue collar workers, not the PMEs. One does not formulate a policy of protecting the strong at the expense of the weak and call ourselves a compassionate society.
Anyway, I don't want to talk about business. Maybe your argument applies for business, but I am not trained in that field and not in a position to comment in that sector. Like I said before, some FTs may be necessary.
And I believe, most in the technical field, are not necessary.
Protect the blue collars, chase away the FWs, import the FTs, let the white collar perish? And you get, on local soil, FTs white collar lording over local blue collars.. oh.. what a disgusting scenario. Are you local?
I would rather want to see my fellow countryman holding majority of PME positions.. and have FW supplement the workforce and help our economy grow. At least, on local soil.
A \"compassionate\" society where the citizens got no pride? No thanks. -
It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn’t increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn’t choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors. -
WeiHan:
You have completely stood logic on its head.It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn't increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn't choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors.
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