Population woes
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It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn’t increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn’t choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors. -
WeiHan:
You have completely stood logic on its head.It is easy.
Easy credit and low interest rate is the condition favorable for property price increase. However, without fundamental demand, there is no way that high property price can be supported. Thus, increase of population is an important supporting fundamental factor.
The US has an extremely low interest and easy credit too but their housing bubble has burst because there isn't increasing population and a growing economy as a support.
If we were to artificially raise our housing loan to high level, I am sure many foreigners wouldn't choose to migrate to Singapore too since it will so difficult to get a new home. Thus, there is a dynamical interplay between these factors. -
Way2GO:
Way2Go, my dear debating partner
Whoa, since u put it dat way, I must first distance n disqualify myself as an arm-chair expert.3Boys:
So, to all the arm-chair experts out there casting bricks at government policy, which is the greater culprit for property price rise. Easy credit and low interest rates, or population influx?
Suggest you check out the rise in landed property prices over the last 3 years, where there is minimal foreign participation.
<http://blog.iproperty.com.sg/landed-property-reserved-for-singaporeans/>
As an observer
, d main culprits r both local n foreign property speculators n investors, aggravated by d gahmen's policy of accentuating FT influx, PR approvals n allowing foreigners to purchase certain landed property asset class eg Sentosa Cove in recent years.
Look at dis graph fr URA:![](\"http://i49.tinypic.com/2nl688y.jpg\")
http://i49.tinypic.com/2nl688y.jpg\">
We hv always had comparative easy credit n low interest rates, but nvr d kinda price spike seen fr Q1 2009 which was also ard d time d floodgates were opened to more FT intake till it was scaled down after GE 2011.
If you plot a straight line of population growth again the property price index in that same period, what sort of correlation would you see?
A pretty poor one I'd say.
From 1996 through 2012, there is a steady growth of population and foreigners, yet, in that period, you had various bubbles and crashes, 1999, 2001, 2009, and a flat period in the noughties. All related to economic and credit cycles. Who's to say we won't see a price crash in 2013-14?
That is the far greater driver. -
Dora1:
Of course there will be cases where the 2 are in conflict, then the million dollar ministers and the expensive senior civil servants have to give alternatives. Why else are they the highest paid politicians and senior civil servants in the world? [/quote]They are always in conflict, and the ministers HAVE made their decisions. The problem is that people refuse to accept them.
And if the 2 are in conflict?3Boys:
[quote=\"Dora1\"]
Bottom line is, look at what Singaporeans want and what the businesses need.
The only criteria for a GOOD decision I see being bandied around is that ministers make decisions that make people HAPPY. No consideration to logic, long term planning, saving for our future, just make sure the MRT is not crowded. -
limlim:
Well, that's your HOPE.
SMEs that relies on cheap labor instead of increasing productivity should make way for those who can do better.. The extinction of such business should not affect locals much because they are not relying on local workers to survive in the first place.3Boys:
Well, the SMEs are suffering already. Lets see where this new fangled population tightening takes our industries in the future.
Where this leads to..? maybe narrowing of the income gap.
In my view, an equally likely outcome is constrained growth and competitiveness as our SMEs starve of talent, MNCs relocate because they are unable to bring in middle level managers/experts (it has already happened and continues to happen), and Singaporeans get complacent and lazy due to a lack of competition and protectionist labour policies.
Singaporean workers are still good in general, but they are nowhere as superior to foreign worker to the extent that you and others have deluded yourselves into believing.
Which economic strata will suffer most from low growth environment? Take a wild guess.... -
limlim:
So, why is it that COE prices were higher in the early 1990s when there were far fewer foreigners?
:goodpost:mamago:
Whether they are better or worse... they contribute to our nation's growth. Let's give them their due credit.
We're already giving them credit.. for their contribution.. to the growth of congestion, skyrocketing HDB prices, overcrowded MRTs, ballooning COEs, wage suppression etc.. :evil: :evil:
Hint: Its got something to do with supply. -
pirate:
limlim, you forgot to address this point.
In addition, you are assuming that our neighbouring countries do not also have highly skilled workers or workers who can be trained to be highly skilled. Singaporeans are not inherently smarter or more hardworking than people of other nationalities. That is hubris. -
Everything also blame the foreigner. Why? They are the the easy bogeyman right?
Property prices? How do you account for the fact that the 1996 peak occurred well before there was an influx and with population at 3.6M? A record that was not touched until 2008 when there were 4.8M? Economic growth and easy credit got nothing to do with it?
COEs? Peak was in 1994 with COE at 110K. What was the population then?
Those people with investment properties and renting them out for cash flow, how many of you are renting to Singaporeans?
The exact opposite of the Gold 90.5 ad, people only want to hear the bad stuff.
As if shutting the flow of foreigners will suddenly solve all our employment issues. -
3Boys:
:goodpost:Everything also blame the foreigner. Why? They are the the easy bogeyman right?
Property prices? How do you account for the fact that the 1996 peak occurred well before there was an influx and with population at 3.6M? A record that was not touched until 2008 when there were 4.8M? Economic growth and easy credit got nothing to do with it?
COEs? Peak was in 1994 with COE at 110K. What was the population then?
Those people with investment properties and renting them out for cash flow, how many of you are renting to Singaporeans?
The exact opposite of the Gold 90.5 ad, people only want to hear the bad stuff.
As if shutting the flow of foreigners will suddenly solve all our employment issues.
3boys, you have elephant memory. :salute:
If not mistaken, the rise in ppty price during that period was also due to hot money in Asia, which disappeared with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. -
3Boys:
from personal encounters.. some FTs just CMI.
Singaporean workers are still good in general, but they are nowhere as superior to foreign worker to the extent that you and others have deluded yourselves into believing.
on the other hand.. I tend to agree that FWs tend to be more hard-working and more committed to the job.
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