floppy\" post_id=\"2037438\" time=\"1631321077\" user_id=\"97579:
Jerseyiv\" post_id=\"2037282\" time=\"1631241051\" user_id=\"54581:[quote=marshmallow96 post_id=2037277 time=1631239318 user_id=135044]
Actually those already left with 20 seats and balloting in 2B will not have a difference, but it does make a difference for quite a few cases... I've just done a calculation for my friend, using this year's data, from a sure in slot in 2B to balloting >2km. SHHK schools also will be worse.
Indeed, Plmgs would have had 19 vacancies lesser for 2B this year if this new system was applied. There were 51 applicants for 56 vacancies this year and many applicants were more than 2km. Under old system 2B was a sure in, under new system more than 2km definitely needs balloting.
I stand corrected.
Did some calculations for PLMGS based on this year’s data, a 3-year and 5-year average, and the numbers are presented below (apologies for the markdown format). Indeed, Phase 2B will be worse off as a result of this new policy - the 3 results consistently show that Phase 2B will have to ballot, whereas Phase 2C only has a marginal gain.
Applicants: Phase 2A1 and 2A2 data combined as Phase 2A.
Vacancies (old) calculated based on current policy of 20/20 reserved plus 50%/50% split.
Vacancies (new) calculated based on new policy of 20/40 reserved plus 33%/67% split.
**1-year (2021)**
| Phases | Phase 1 | Phase 2A | Phase 2B | Phase 2C |
| ----------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------- |
| Applicants | 73 | 85^ (56 + 29)| 51 | 105 |
| Vacancies (Old)| 230 | 157 | 56 | 62 |
| Vacancies (New)| 210 | 137 | 38 | 74 |
Phase 1 and Phase 2A (2A1 and 2A2) no change.
Phase 2B will have to ballot if the new system was implemented this year. Compared to the old system, difference of 18 places (lost 32%).
Phase 2C gain 12 additional places (gain 19%).
**3-year Average**
| Phases | Phase 1 | Phase 2A | Phase 2B | Phase 2C |
| ----------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------- |
| Applicants | 66 | 72 | 58 | 108 |
| Vacancies (Old)| 230 | 164 | 66 | 74 |
| Vacancies (New)| 210 | 144 | 44 | 88 |
Phase 1 and Phase 2A (2A1 and 2A2) no change.
Phase 2B will have to ballot if the new system was implemented. Compared to the old system, difference of 22 places (lost 33%).
Phase 2C gain 14 additional places (gain 19%).
**5-year Average**
| Phases | Phase 1 | Phase 2A | Phase 2B | Phase 2C |
| ----------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------- |
| Applicants | 67 | 69 | 58 | 108 |
| Vacancies (Old)| 230 | 163 | 67 | 76 |
| Vacancies (New)| 210 | 143 | 45 | 89 |
Phase 1 and Phase 2A (2A1 and 2A2) no change.
Phase 2B will have to ballot if the new system was implemented. Compared to the old system, difference of 22 places (lost 33%).
Phase 2C gain 13 additional places (gain 17%).[/quote]This is a good illustration on the effect on 2B. Those consistently with 20 seats left may be about the same, but many more will see the number of 2B seats reduce, and no longer be a safe choice.