Audrey221\" post_id=\"1979023\" time=\"1591022964\" user_id=\"183442:

Hello everybody,

I am so happy to have many information about P1 registration. We are SPR and Roman Catholic family. My son will register in phase 2B.
May I ask for the chance that intakes from St Gabriel primary school? we living In Orchard that it’s over 2km.
I have noted that 2019 The vacancy in 2B Is all intakes. Is true?

Please advise, Many Thanks.

St Gabriel Primary has never been over-subscribed in Phase 2B during the last ten years. Mostly 50% subscription rate so should be quite safe.

Well summarised!


Maybe a map view too - https://balloting.xyz/vacancy_2cs

Good luck everyone.

zac's mum\" post_id=\"1927231\" time=\"1565163189\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=1927231 time=1565163189 user_id=53606]Hi all, I did this last year. Some people found it useful. Hope it helps u too. Wisest way is to pick from those with more vacancies (and is not too far away by public transport/private car). Don’t be raving mad to pick a school with only 1 vacancy left!!!

Schools with Phase 2CS vacancies, sorted from the most vacancies to the fewest vacancies:

Greendale Primary: 175
Northoaks Primary: 159
Ahmad Ibrahim Primary: 151
Boon Lay Garden Primary: 148
New Town Primary: 139
Cedar Primary: 135
Teck Whye Primary: 135
Pei Tong Primary: 133
Seng Kang Primary: 121
Pioneer Primary: 112
Lianhua Primary: 105
Xishan Primary: 103
Yio Chu Kang Primary: 103
Meridian Primary: 102
North Vista Primary: 102
Kranji Primary: 101
Bukit View Primary: 98
Bedok Green Primary: 97
Gan Eng Seng Primary: 96
Yuhua Primary: 96
Stamford Primary: 95
Fuchun Primary: 92
Marymount Convent School: 90
Xinghua Primary: 90
St Anthony’s Canossian Primary: 87
Anchor Green Primary: 85
Beacon Primary: 85
First Toa Payoh Primary: 85
Mayflower Primary: 85
Farrer Park Primary: 81
Zhonghua Primary: 80
North Spring Primary: 78
Guangyang Primary: 77
Angsana Primary: 76
Damai Primary: 75
Peiying Primary: 74
Si Ling Primary: 74
West View Primary: 74
CHIJ (Katong) Primary: 72
Telok Kurau Primary: 71
Townsville Primary: 71
Corporation Primary: 69
Valour Primary: 68
Edgefield Primary: 67
Dazhong Primary: 65
Tampines North Primary: 65
Yishun Primary: 65
Yumin Primary: 63
St Stephen’s Primary: 58
Greenridge Primary: 56
Juying Primary: 56
Fernvale Primary: 54
Blangah Rise Primary: 52
Fuhua Primary: 51
Bendemeer Primary: 50
Yew Tee Primary: 48
Bukit Timah Primary: 47
Clementi Primary: 47
Unity Primary: 47
Palm View Primary: 46
Casuarina Primary: 45
Ang Mo Kio Primary: 44
Endeavour Primary: 42
Geylang Methodist Primary: 42
Montfort Junior: 42
Park View Primary: 42
Changkat Primary: 41
Canossa Catholic Primary: 40
Eunos Primary: 39
Wellington Primary: 39
Marsiling Primary: 38
CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace: 37
Cantonment Primary: 35
Naval Base Primary: 34
Woodlands Ring Primary: 34
East Spring Primary: 32
Qihua Primary: 28
St Margaret’s Primary: 26
Waterway Primary: 25
Zhenghua Primary: 24
Kheng Cheng School: 21
Punggol View Primary: 16
Sembawang Primary: 16
Punggol Cove Primary: 13
Jing Shan Primary: 12
Ngee Ann Primary: 10
Concord Primary: 9
Xingnan Primary: 9
St Gabriel’s Primary: 8
CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel: 7
Fern Green Primary: 7
Haig Girls School: 3
CHIJ (Kellock): 1
Greenwood Primary: 1
Jiemin Primary: 1
Springdale Primary: 1[/quote]

sprout\" post_id=\"1925027\" time=\"1564580437\" user_id=\"165459:

Huanglynn\" post_id=\"1925016\" time=\"1564577635\" user_id=\"174976:

Can I ask the gurus if last day will there be a lot of changes to the numbers?

Here's some data derived from 2018 (if similar pattern holds).

New Borns:
2012: 42,663\t(SC+PR)
2013: 39,654 (SC+PR)

Vacancies:
2018: 41,820 (800 less than new borns)
2019: 39,058 (600 less than new borns)

Registered after 2B:
2018: 23,002 (53.9% of new borns)
2019: 21,148 (53.3% of new borns)

Registered after 2B + Applied at 2C:
2018: 38,542 (90.3% of new borns)
2019: ~35808 (Expected, assuming 90.3% of new borns)

As of today (Day2 @ 2C), total registered after 2B + Applied at 2C Day2:
2019: 34505

So if my assumption is right, we shall still expect around 1,300 new registrations (35808-34505) on the last day of 2C.

We will verify the data tmr!

FYI:
Registered after 2C + Applied at 2CS:
2018: 38,622

So in the end,
Registered after 2B + Applied at 2C:
2019: 35,563 (89.7% of new borns, compared to projected 35,808 an 90.3%)

New applicants on the last day is 1060.
Happy data mining!

Huanglynn\" post_id=\"1925016\" time=\"1564577635\" user_id=\"174976:

Can I ask the gurus if last day will there be a lot of changes to the numbers?

Here's some data derived from 2018 (if similar pattern holds).

New Borns:
2012: 42,663\t(SC+PR)
2013: 39,654 (SC+PR)

Vacancies:
2018: 41,820 (800 less than new borns)
2019: 39,058 (600 less than new borns)

Registered after 2B:
2018: 23,002 (53.9% of new borns)
2019: 21,148 (53.3% of new borns)

Registered after 2B + Applied at 2C:
2018: 38,542 (90.3% of new borns)
2019: ~35808 (Expected, assuming 90.3% of new borns)

As of today (Day2 @ 2C), total registered after 2B + Applied at 2C Day2:
2019: 34505

So if my assumption is right, we shall still expect around 1,300 new registrations (35808-34505) on the last day of 2C.

We will verify the data tmr!

FYI:
Registered after 2C + Applied at 2CS:
2018: 38,622

mirkat\" post_id=\"1923764\" time=\"1564379704\" user_id=\"158320:

floppy\" post_id=\"1923741\" time=\"1564376505\" user_id=\"97579:

[quote=mirkat post_id=1923735 time=1564376244 user_id=158320]Hi,

We are having difficulty deciding which school to choose. First choice is Punggol Green but the vacancy is low and competition is hot! Thinking if we should just go for Horizon without going for balloting. Balloting is stressful haha.

Horizon Primary - 164 available (We live 1-2km)
Punggol Green - 47 available (We live less than 1km)

Like to hear from experienced folks here. Thanks much!

If you don’t want balloting, why are you going for Horizon? :?
At best, Horizon will also be balloting for between 1-2km. So it’s a choice of balloting for Punggol Green or balloting for Horizon.

Oh, cause we feel even if it goes into balloting for Horizon for 1-2km, there’s a higher chance to get in as compared to Punggol Green unless we interpret the data wrongly.[/quote]I will interpret the historical data differently. Predicted Number of Application (Or Oversubscription rate) is never a simple approximation to historical numbers (e.g. last year's number). In fact it should be a function of \"Vacancy\", \"Other Nearby Schools\" and \"Households within 1km\". When oversubscribed, the number of applicants is mainly affected by the average risk appetite of nearby households.

Make it short - you probably won't see another over 240+ applicants this year for Punggol Green. To be frank I don't think any school in Punggol \"worth\" an oversubscription rate > 200% given the increase of school supplies and limited \"rewards\" when enrolling in one school rather than another.

In your case, Punggol View might be another choice if you live within 1km.

https://balloting.xyz has updated an *estimated* vacancy number for Phase 2C (can be different from the actual number by +1 in theory, actually number will be reflected on Friday Morning). Hope it can help some anxious parents.


Literally my personal P1 registration journey should just finish today. The website will run on its own with automatic updates until the end of Phase 2CS. I wish all parents good luck.

daze12\" post_id=\"1919128\" time=\"1562896161\" user_id=\"129377:

sprout\" post_id=\"1918793\" time=\"1562752648\" user_id=\"165459:

I made a p1-registration statistics page to keep track schools in a watch list.

https://balloting.xyz/

Happy balloting!

Thank you Sprout. What does the green colors numbers mean at the bottom of each cell? Thanks for clarifying.

They are the differences between the number of Vacancies (or Applicants) in 2019 and as in 2018. For example, Ai Tong has 30 less total vacancies but gains 39 more vacancies for Phase 2A2, because it received less applicants at Phase 1 and Phase 2A1(44 and 25 respectively).

Green - good for this year
Red - bad for this year

The grey-out approximated numbers are the number of applicants in 2018 at the indicated stage.

https://postimg.cc/rDgWtrz4

I made a p1-registration statistics page to keep track schools in a watch list.


https://balloting.xyz/

Happy balloting!