2018 PSLE Discussions & Strategies (Born in 2006)

[floppy]

fable:

So 39,672 students sat for the PSLE this year(number taken from ST). If 260 represents the top 3%, that means 1,190 students (rounded down all decimals for convenience) scored at least 260. Just for convenience, lets make some assumptions:

1) the same number of boys and girls in the top 3%, i.e. 595 from each gender.
2) RI intake is 500 students a year (based on an old post somewhere in ksp), and 20% of the places are allocated via DSA
3) About 30% of the students who are in the top 3% already have a place in a school of their choice via DSA - that works out to a little over 400 boys looking for schools via S1 posting.

Based on these assumptions (and please keep in mind that they are just back of envelope), if all of them apply to RI, the COP will be 260 as number of places match number of boys. But since it is unlikely that they will all apply to one school the COP is likely to be lower than ESIS score.

Hence, it is not useful to say that COP has never gone above ESIS or hover around +- x of ESIS and deemed that there is a correlation.

Since this dataset: https://wwwdontmesswith6a.blogspot.com/2011/09/p6-prelim-results-and-expected-psle.html was highlighted, and we were talking about statistics and excel yesterday :evil: , I will try and pay tribute to my teachers by compiling the following:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyz92mJC/Screenshot-2018-11-29-at-12-15-13-PM.png\">

As can be seen by the table, correlation between ESIS and COP of the respective schools range from 0.079 (TJC, super-outlier) to 0.985 (ACS (I), nearly perfect). Not all schools will move in the same degree as ESIS.

For HCI, correlation coefficient is 0.854, and RI is 0.668. Graphically on a scatter diagram (x-axis: EEIS, y-axis: COP):

https://i.postimg.cc/bJX0TZxV/Screenshot-2018-11-29-at-12-13-08-PM.png\">

https://i.postimg.cc/FRjynhGr/Screenshot-2018-11-29-at-12-13-16-PM.png\">

By regression, with ESIS at 260, HCI COP should be between 257 and 258 (essentially no change from last year) and RI COP to be 259 (+2 increase from last year). Unfortunately, this is emotionless guestimation (i.e. math), without taking into account the human factors, i.e. preference of this cohort. Moral of the story: don't waste time guessing the COP from ESIS :rotflmao:

P/S: don't shoot me if the above is wrong. It has been a while
P/S: can get A for math?

[pirate]

phtthp:

Amongst all the SAP secondary schools so far in Sg, which is the SAP school, that has the lowest Cut-off-point ? It is ... Maris Stella (MS)


And what is Maris Stella Cut-off-point ?
Around 235 or 236 ?

This means that, if students can enter MS (SAP) at 236, one can interpret that the Top 30 percent Cut-off, is somewhere around here (236 T-score)

No lah. Mean T-score per subject is 50. 60 is by definition one standard deviation away. One standard deviation puts 60 at top 15.9%. 4 x 60 = 240. By that reckoning, top 30% cut-off should be significantly below 236. In other words, not within top 30% highly unlikely to be able to get into SAP school anyway. Unless got some SAP school with very generous affiliation cut-off...

[pengpeng]

Thanks Shuangbaoma!

[lee_yl]

MrsKiasu:

ngl2010:

I think rather than spend so much time in HCL, it is better to just take CL and spend more time on other subjects. The child may get 10 points higher than a miserable 3 points (maximum) which he/she may not be able to use it to apply for admission to SAP schools. JMHO

true and I agree..told kid before, and reply received was same same, cl and hcl :? and surviving so I thought just let it be if offered.

MKS, You DD read Chinese comics like 小叮当 right? Maybe she got interest leh.

Both my girls from non-SAP primary schools and we encourage them to go for it!

@LeeTaiTai, if offered HCL, don’t give up.

[LeeTaiTai]

lee_yl:

MrsKiasu:

[quote=\"ngl2010\"]I think rather than spend so much time in HCL, it is better to just take CL and spend more time on other subjects. The child may get 10 points higher than a miserable 3 points (maximum) which he/she may not be able to use it to apply for admission to SAP schools. JMHO

true and I agree..told kid before, and reply received was same same, cl and hcl :? and surviving so I thought just let it be if offered.

MKS, You DD read Chinese comics like 小叮当 right? Maybe she got interest leh.

Both my girls from non-SAP primary schools and we encourage them to go for it!

@LeeTaiTai, if offered HCL, don’t give up.[/quote]Ok ! Signed on the form already and will persevere til PSLE at least and see if it can be put to good use later ... :xedfingers:

[LeeTaiTai]

Wow…we have so many talents here for the Department of Statistics. They need to hire parents. Look at the graphs…omg

[laughingcat]

6thisnthat9:

Parents stress is self induced lah

pls lah. Parent stress on the secondary school selection is not self induced. Look at the forum, parents are equally headache over the selection of secondary school. The use of PSLE is a ticket to the choice secondary school. Even the thought of wanting to go next door secondary school is already a fear for parents.

[pirate]

.zeit:

I don't know if you understand what MrsKS and I are talking about. You're talking about the option of taking HCL/CL in various SAP schools.


We're talking abt the so called top 30% (estimated t-score of 225, per pirate's calculation) who are eligible to take HCL. Suppose they happen to score between 225 and 235, where can they pursue HCL if they cannot qualify for the 'lowest-ranking' SAP sch in Singapore, which is MSHS for boys or the next 'lowest-ranking' SAP schools - AHS/CCHSM for co-ed?

One ex-forummer's kid was very strong in HCL, but alas her overall t-score didn't qualify her for the IPs or the higher-ranking SAP schools like NHHS/NCHS, but was fortunately high enough for AHS/CCHSM with the bonus points, so she had to make do with the hour-long commute to the East to pursue HCL.

Where can the 225-235 kids (top 30% yah?) with no affiliation to MSHS go to?

Non SAP school lah. Non-SAP schools also offer HCL nowadays. I just randomly picked secondary schools on SIS and see that many offer HCL, eg Ahmad Ibrahim (218-240), Boon Lay (188-233), Gan Eng Seng (223-249), Pasir Ris Secondary (216-232) all offer HCL. North, south, east, west, all have. Minister really not joking when he says all schools are good schools, parents only need to pick school with the right fit for their child.

[laughingcat]

MrsKiasu:

ngl2010:

I think rather than spend so much time in HCL, it is better to just take CL and spend more time on other subjects. The child may get 10 points higher than a miserable 3 points (maximum) which he/she may not be able to use it to apply for admission to SAP schools. JMHO

true and I agree..told kid before, and reply received was same same, cl and hcl :? and surviving so I thought just let it be if offered.

Guess what MKS.... I contemplated it after DC was offered HCL. But my DC's ex-school teacher advice not to proceed. Thinking about it, my DC will never go SAP school. So I have decided to drop it.

[.010675zeit]

MrsKiasu:

.zeit:

Per 2017 stats, the SAP school that has the lowest COP is MSHS which is an all boys school, so does it mean girls within the cohort's top 30% who want to take HCL can only pick AHS or CCHSM whose COPs are 238?

Can one go to another SAP sec to take his/her HCL lessons? How does this HCL 30% thingy work?

the 30% thingy is a new one day old info to me more qns ..if kid flung hcl in PSLE, will it affect the chances of kid to choose hcl in sec1 say compared to a kid same points but no attempt for hcl in PSLE assuming both within the 30%?

only SAP secondary schools will offer hcl ie if not in SAP school cant take hcl?

OK, I dug out this list of non-SAP sec schools which look to me can open a Chinese Special Prog class for CL-proficient kids within the school, if there are at least 15 pupils?

https://www.moe.gov.sg/docs/default-source/document/education/admissions/secondary-one-posting/files/schools-offering-hmtl.pdf

An old media release on this Special Programme dated 2002 underscores the criteria:

http://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/speeches/view-html?filename=2002033013.htm

The Chinese (Special Programme) is offered to students:
i) in the top 10% of a PSLE cohort, or
ii) in the top 11 to 30% of a PSLE cohort with A* in their Mother Tongue Language (MTL) or Distinction in their Higher Mother Tongue Language (HMTL) and at least A in their English Language (EL) at the PSLE.
...
The Chinese (Special Programme) will be conducted in schools if there are at least 15 students. Students in schools that do not offer the subject will attend classes in other secondary schools within their cluster or in a nearby cluster.

https://www.moe.gov.sg/docs/default-source/document/education/syllabuses/mother-tongue-languages/files/chinese-special-programme-secondary-2015.pdf

The strange thing is this Chinese Special Prog doesn't culminate in HCL O level exams in Sec 4. It's still CL O level, meaning students won't enjoy the 2 bonus point deduction from L1R5.