2021 P1 Registration Exercise for 2022 In-take

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Terrydad\" post_id=\"2030773\" time=\"1626413582\" user_id=\"193857:

…
That said, if MOE released more data and information about the less well known schools, especially neighbourhood schools, we would not have needed to feel so much stress initially!

I’m not sure if MOE released more data and info about schools, you will feel less stress initially.

Thinking back to your kid’s example. What if the data says that his primary school has a few students scoring 270+, a few scoring 260+, a handful scoring 250+ but on average, the school’s result is below national’s average. Would you truly be less stressed?

For those old enough to remember, that used to be the problem when MOE and schools willingly shared their ‘data’. While every school is capable of producing students in the top 10% (and even top students like your son), the majority of these top 10% consistently comes from some schools. Furthermore, these said schools also consistently produce above National’s average results. Over time, it resulted in the race for some schools that we see today. Releasing a subset of data won’t make things better. It will just result in another race within the main race.

[zac's mum]

Terrydad\" post_id=\"2030830\" time=\"1626438116\" user_id=\"193857:

I am old enough to remember when Rulang Primary used to be perceived as a neighbourhood primary school in the 1990s and 1980s in the West then it produced a series of 280+ top scores for several years in the 2000s and became a top 10 popular and elite school.

Now MOE removed the PSLE data for primary schools from public view, so it's hard to tell which are the 'hidden dragons' in the neighbourhood if any.

Likewise, in Jan 2021, a top R****** sec school told us in the parents briefing that they have students from over 80 schools. Subtract out the Top 20 primary schools, and you have 60 neighbourhood schools doing well enough to send their kids to this secondary school.

My son plays basketball with some neighbour's kids from the popular school. As it turns out, it produced only about a handful of boys also going to the same school as my son. This is despite the school being multiple times oversubscribed and being much more well known.

Based on such data, I would guess that it is the caliber of the kids themselves that produces the high PSLE score. Nothing much to do with whether branded/popular school or not, cos if so, then ALL the kids from popular school would score high, while NO kids from neighborhood schools would score high.

[floppy]

Terrydad\" post_id=\"2030830\" time=\"1626438116\" user_id=\"193857:

I am old enough to remember when Rulang Primary used to be perceived as a neighbourhood primary school in the 1990s and 1980s in the West then it produced a series of 280+ top scores for several years in the 2000s and became a top 10 popular and elite school.

Now MOE removed the PSLE data for primary schools from public view, so it's hard to tell which are the 'hidden dragons' in the neighbourhood if any.

Likewise, in Jan 2021, a top R****** sec school told us in the parents briefing that they have students from over 80 schools. Subtract out the Top 20 primary schools, and you have 60 neighbourhood schools doing well enough to send their kids to this secondary school.

My son plays basketball with some neighbour's kids from the popular school. As it turns out, it produced only about a handful of boys also going to the same school as my son. This is despite the school being multiple times oversubscribed and being much more well known.

With all due respect, I won’t call Rulang a top 10 and elite school, even though it did produce the nation’s top PSLE student as recently as 2011. It is no doubt a popular school in the west, much like Chongfu is a popular school in the north and Nan Chiau is a popular school in the northeast.

Every school is capable of producing students in the top 10%. There’s no need for data on that. If you are confident in your child’s ability, he can excel anywhere. Raffles statistics (over 100 primary schools represented) is a testament to that.

However, what is unspoken and not said is that, in truth, only a handful of schools can churn out more than their fair share of these top 10% students. More than 100 primary schools are represented in Raffles BUT some schools are more represented than others. These are the data that even Raffles won’t be comfortable in sharing, let alone MOE.

[SG_KP1]

floppy\" post_id=\"2030836\" time=\"1626440184\" user_id=\"97579:

...........
Every school is capable of producing students in the top 10%. There’s no need for data on that. If you are confident in your child’s ability, he can excel anywhere. Raffles statistics (over 100 primary schools represented) is a testament to that.

However, what is unspoken and not said is that, in truth, only a handful of schools can churn out more than their fair share of these top 10% students. More than 100 primary schools are represented in Raffles BUT some schools are more represented than others. These are the data that even Raffles won’t be comfortable in sharing, let alone MOE.

Just curious, how do you define “more than their fair share?” Is it simply more than the national average?

Reason being I would say there is a huge (self) selection bias as to which students are sitting in these schools at PSLE time. The most straight-forward is the GEP kids. Even beyond that group, there is likely a bias towards underlying cognitive ability and households that value academic results that does not mirror the population as a whole. Said another way, certain schools produce far more than 10% of the cohort above 250 but what was “par” for the course?

This is not to say all are the same or it makes no difference. Many of the popular schools are highly desirable for other reasons like culture, tradition, resources, and certain demographic pulls that cannot be replicated elsewhere. Even if we can’t definitively answer the question “how much” I think we can (at least partly) understand why we see the activity we do to try and secure spots at these schools (if feasible for one to try and do so).

Regardless, it is not possible for everyone to get a spot at these schools. Hence, I think it is more important that the kids receive support wherever they end up. There are always opportunities (and great teachers) wherever you are - I would argue it is more important to make the most of whatever opportunities are presented to you.

Good luck to everyone that is still trying to secure a spot in the P1 registration system for next year!

[Sherfernw]

Hi anyone know where i can find the chat group for 2021 registration for holy innocents primary school?

[Sherfernw]

Hi anyone know where i can find the chat group for 2021 registration for holy innocents primary school?

[glitterpen]

2A2 results are out. Good luck to everyone balloting in this phase, or registering in the subsequent phases!


https://www.moe.gov.sg/primary/p1-registration/vacancies-and-balloting

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glitterpen\" post_id=\"2031284\" time=\"1626861385\" user_id=\"187525:

2A2 results are out. Good luck to everyone balloting in this phase, or registering in the subsequent phases!

https://www.moe.gov.sg/primary/p1-registration/vacancies-and-balloting

Quick glance.
The MK effect is real and is going to be worrisome for those aiming MK schools in Phase 2C. Have to hope there ain’t many applicants in Phase 2B.

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floppy\" post_id=\"2030239\" time=\"1626061919\" user_id=\"97579:

This is my take:
- Taking in the total number of applications for Phase 2A1 and Phase 2A2 in 2020 (potential no. of former students)
- Less the number of applications for Phase 2A2 in 2021
- Remainder (potential incoming) compared to the vacancy for Phase 2A2 in 2021

Very High Risk, i.e. potential incoming > vacancy
1. Temasek Primary School (-33)
2. Rulang Primary School (-26)
3. Gongshang Primary School (-9)
4. St. Hilda’s Primary School (-9)
5. Fairfield Methodist School (Primary) (-4)
6. Tao Nan School (-4)
7. Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) (-1)

High Risk, i.e. less than 10 places between potential incoming and vacancy
1. Chongzheng Primary School (4)
2. Henry Park Primary School (6)
3. Yu Neng Primary School (6)
4. Red Swastika School (8)
5. Nan Hua Primary School* (9)
6. Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary School (9)

*Nan Hua is an interesting case.
No. of applicants for Phase 2A1 in 2021 (88) has already exceeded last year's (84). That suggests it may not have many potential applicants for Phase 2A2 as most would have been spooked enough to sign up. Thankfully, the number of vacancy for Phase 2A1 in 2021 (93) is significantly more (+20.3%) than last year's (77) which helps to absorb all the applicants for Phase 2A1. Notwithstanding, I won't discount the possibility of some alumni who might not have signed up but could decide to jump into the mix once Phase 2A2 opens.

Based on MOE updated data, 12 schools heading to the ballot for Phase 2A2:
1. Frontier (82 vacancies / 111 applicants) - SC 1-2km
2. Gongshang (25 / 61) - SC 1-2km
3. Holy Innocents' (55 / 66 ) - SC > 2km
4. Horizon (62 / 102) - SC < 1km
5. Nan Hua (5 / 21) - SC < 1km
6. Pei Chun (31 / 39) - SC > 2km
7. Punggol Green (92 / 96) - SC 1-2km
8. Rulang (25 / 61) - SC < 1km
9. South View (73 / 79 ) - SC > 2km
10. St Hilda (30 / 33) - SC > 2km
11. Tao Nan (27 / 31) - SC > 2km
12. Temasek (11 / 35) - SC 1-2km

The model in the earlier post suggests 13 schools were at risk. 6 of them eventually had to ballot while the following (mostly) 'survive' by the skin of their teeth:
1. Fairfield (31 / 27) - 4 places remaining
2. Methodist Girls' (23 / 9) - 14 (!) places
3. Chongzheng (53 /50) - 3 places
4. Henry Park (32 / 25) - 7 places
5. Yu Neng (39 / 38) - 1 (!) place
6. Red Swastika (19 / 15) - 4 places
7. Singapore Chinese Girls' (31 / 10) - 21 (!) places

6 schools weren't identified:
1. Frontier - MK
2. Holy Innocents'
3. Horizon - MK
4. Pei Chun
5. Punggol Green - MK
6. South View

Notwithstanding, the https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=91589&start=490#p2030718 as a high risk due to the MK effect. 2 of the 3 schools (Holy Innocents' and Pei Chun) are traditional favourites, so it shouldn't come as a surprise. South View (also a future MK school) is going to a HOT 'battleground' moving forward.

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floppy\" post_id=\"2030734\" time=\"1626400547\" user_id=\"97579:

...
Notwithstanding, my point is this:
I believe MK schools, which carry Phase 2A2 priority, will be causing a shock to the system in time to come (probably very soon).
...

Just a sense of how many applicants a MK school can add to Phase 2A(2):

https://i.postimg.cc/vBvpGvFq/r-Wlrv-existing-mk-schools-2021.png\">

Note that not all schools listed above have a full K1 / K2 cohort. Some of them are relatively new, therefore, may not have K2 students yet.

If you are aiming for these schools in Phase 2C or as a backup for Phase 2CS, either for this year or for subsequent years, you may want to make sure you have more than 1 alternative / backup.