2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
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Veyron\" post_id=\"2041591\" time=\"1633865127\" user_id=\"30663:
There are a few things that I think is important to clarify to avoid getting other parents confused.lassie girl\" post_id=\"2041562\" time=\"1633848586\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2041562 time=1633848586 user_id=35383]I have been a silent reader on this platform for some years now, having had children under both the T score and the new AL. It is interesting to note how parents with no prior knowledge and experience regarding the old psle t score can use their limited knowledge to link the t score to the new AL. It is clear from MOE’s published info (and many KS parents from this forum have pointed out as well) that the last t score student of a particular school may not be equivalent to the AL cut off in MOE’s simulation. It has been known that t score is the addition of each subjects’ t score, which is a factor of the bell curve and the cohorts strength/averages. Personally I have also heard (from some educators although this info was never verified or confirmed by official sources) of how the A stars might have been moved year on year, ie eg A* may or may not be 91 and above, depending on difficulty of paper. Since we can never know the raw score of papers under the old t score system, we can never link them to the new AL system or make any correct predictions out of it. Instead of wasting time and energy misleading and confusing each other, let’s aim to spend our time wisely. What we can do right now for our first batch of AL kids is to have a game plan where we narrow down with them the school choices and ranking, taking into considerations our kids’ preferences and strengths and what the matching school has to offer - this is also a form of bonding during this free time where we have an open communication with our children on their goals and aspirations for the new journey ahead.
1) Are you sure that the grading band for A* (which we know is 91 and above) can change from year to year?
Perhaps you have mistaken T-score for Primary School Grading because subject grading doesnt yo-yo like t-score and the passing grade is always 50.
2) It will be difficult to link t-score to raw score if MOE didn't publish the AL range of 2020 S1 posting. And since we already know that T-score cut of point for 2020 S1 posting, it will not be difficult to link AL COP to T-score, simply by calculating the lowest possible raw score within each AL band.
3) You can't really have any game plan if you don't have historical data to help assess risk and chance in S1 posting. In the past, parents can rely on past year t-score COP pattern, so they know exactly what is the chances.
Under AL system, you may know what is 2020 AL COP, but you can't really assess the balloting risk unless you dig deeper into the raw score and try to figure out what is the estimated t-score equivalent.
For example. If I am to ask you, for a student with AL6 combine score, what do think will be the balloting risk when applying for schools for AL6 COP?[/quote]
We had the good fortune of learning from this KS community through all the sharing and value added info from parents here. Objective and constructive opinions, as well as real personal experiences shared by other parents have certainly helped us. I do not see the point of debating on the fallacy of certain t score = certain AL, especially since information and facts have already been presented to debunk the myth. We are all adults who learn what we want to learn, and will in turn benefit from what we want to focus on.
Parents need to understand the game has changed. Under the AL system, students gain entry to schools based on a maximum of 29 possible scores (from the best possible score of 4 to the worst of 32), compared to more than 200 possible aggregates under the old system. Gone are the days of t score where we can “try until we hit the ‘best’ school our t score can get’, simply because now choice ranking matters. MOE has told us to look beyond schools’ psle score ranges when choosing a sec school, and look for the best fit. These other factors include schools’ programmes and initiatives, CCAs, culture as well as home-school distance. In other words, when choosing between two or three schools with the same entry score range, pick the one you and your child like best! Competition is always tougher at the top. Someone with the exact AL cut off, eg AL6 (although this is only known after the posting exercise) will certainly stand a better chance of getting the slot if their choice ranking is higher than their competitors who can’t decide which one of the 3 schools they want and thus decide to put all 3 to “just try”. This brings me back to - choose a school that best suits your child simply because now choice ranking matters.
Like I always tell my kids, adapt and change game plan when the game changes. This will be the sure win way. All the best to everyone for the school postings. -
Yes, indeed! Good post. Just want to add… even though MOE simulated that 10% of students will probably need to ballot, it is very likely that this involves the top students and the best schools. I think this is the worst aspect of the new scheme, as it actually disincentivize students to try their best. Why try harder when "just enough" (scoring 90s vs scoring 100s for all subjects) will give you the same AL, plus you are probably going to have to ballot to get into that coveted school?
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Here is a good article for those who are looking for ideas on what their kids can do over the break. Not saying you need to setup the next Amazon in 2 months, but trying to sell something/run a business encourages risk taking, creativity, and solving real problems.
If you are lucky, they will be able to buy their own handphone
https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/women/day-girl-united-nations-young-women-entrepreneurs-singapore-283246 -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041651\" time=\"1633917327\" user_id=\"188234:
Good idea! Maybe they will treat their phones with more care if they have buy them themselves.
...
If you are lucky, they will be able to buy their own handphone
... -
lassie girl\" post_id=\"2041646\" time=\"1633914214\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2041646 time=1633914214 user_id=35383]
Veyron\" post_id=\"2041591\" time=\"1633865127\" user_id=\"30663:
There are a few things that I think is important to clarify to avoid getting other parents confused.[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2041562 time=1633848586 user_id=35383]I have been a silent reader on this platform for some years now, having had children under both the T score and the new AL. It is interesting to note how parents with no prior knowledge and experience regarding the old psle t score can use their limited knowledge to link the t score to the new AL. It is clear from MOE’s published info (and many KS parents from this forum have pointed out as well) that the last t score student of a particular school may not be equivalent to the AL cut off in MOE’s simulation. It has been known that t score is the addition of each subjects’ t score, which is a factor of the bell curve and the cohorts strength/averages. Personally I have also heard (from some educators although this info was never verified or confirmed by official sources) of how the A stars might have been moved year on year, ie eg A* may or may not be 91 and above, depending on difficulty of paper. Since we can never know the raw score of papers under the old t score system, we can never link them to the new AL system or make any correct predictions out of it. Instead of wasting time and energy misleading and confusing each other, let’s aim to spend our time wisely. What we can do right now for our first batch of AL kids is to have a game plan where we narrow down with them the school choices and ranking, taking into considerations our kids’ preferences and strengths and what the matching school has to offer - this is also a form of bonding during this free time where we have an open communication with our children on their goals and aspirations for the new journey ahead.
1) Are you sure that the grading band for A* (which we know is 91 and above) can change from year to year?
Perhaps you have mistaken T-score for Primary School Grading because subject grading doesnt yo-yo like t-score and the passing grade is always 50.
2) It will be difficult to link t-score to raw score if MOE didn't publish the AL range of 2020 S1 posting. And since we already know that T-score cut of point for 2020 S1 posting, it will not be difficult to link AL COP to T-score, simply by calculating the lowest possible raw score within each AL band.
3) You can't really have any game plan if you don't have historical data to help assess risk and chance in S1 posting. In the past, parents can rely on past year t-score COP pattern, so they know exactly what is the chances.
Under AL system, you may know what is 2020 AL COP, but you can't really assess the balloting risk unless you dig deeper into the raw score and try to figure out what is the estimated t-score equivalent.
For example. If I am to ask you, for a student with AL6 combine score, what do think will be the balloting risk when applying for schools for AL6 COP?[/quote]
We had the good fortune of learning from this KS community through all the sharing and value added info from parents here. Objective and constructive opinions, as well as real personal experiences shared by other parents have certainly helped us. I do not see the point of debating on the fallacy of certain t score = certain AL, especially since information and facts have already been presented to debunk the myth. We are all adults who learn what we want to learn, and will in turn benefit from what we want to focus on.
Parents need to understand the game has changed. Under the AL system, students gain entry to schools based on a maximum of 29 possible scores (from the best possible score of 4 to the worst of 32), compared to more than 200 possible aggregates under the old system. Gone are the days of t score where we can “try until we hit the ‘best’ school our t score can get’, simply because now choice ranking matters. MOE has told us to look beyond schools’ psle score ranges when choosing a sec school, and look for the best fit. These other factors include schools’ programmes and initiatives, CCAs, culture as well as home-school distance. In other words, when choosing between two or three schools with the same entry score range, pick the one you and your child like best! Competition is always tougher at the top. Someone with the exact AL cut off, eg AL6 (although this is only known after the posting exercise) will certainly stand a better chance of getting the slot if their choice ranking is higher than their competitors who can’t decide which one of the 3 schools they want and thus decide to put all 3 to “just try”. This brings me back to - choose a school that best suits your child simply because now choice ranking matters.
Like I always tell my kids, adapt and change game plan when the game changes. This will be the sure win way. All the best to everyone for the school postings.[/quote]For the sake of clarification, I hope you can answer Q1 of my earlier post. -
ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2041596\" time=\"1633866559\" user_id=\"3:
Guess have to check with phpBB or alternatively embed a 3rd party poll script.
Very interesting comment. Not very sure how to set up this \"poll\" yet. Won't we have to list all the secondary schools also for parents to state their choice schools?putien\" post_id=\"2041553\" time=\"1633847093\" user_id=\"29927:
T-score is over, we just keep it simple.
Come Nov when PSLE results are out, setup a poll for all 29 (4-32) possible AL scores.
The KS community can help one another by indicating the score of their P6 child/children truthfully and anonymously. A high participation rate will give us an idea of the % distribution of the AL scores for 2021 cohort. This way, we can make an informed decision when choosing the secondary schools and hopefully avoid balloting.
For parents interested in IP schools for their child, take note that around 4,000 Sec 1 students enter the IP each year, which is roughly 10% of the PSLE cohort. The top 1/3 of this group who are Singapore citizens qualify for ESIS which is about 3% of the cohort. The poll results will help you to decide on the odds of getting into IP.
Listing the AL scores will suffice. Thanks Chief! -
putien\" post_id=\"2041696\" time=\"1633930010\" user_id=\"29927:
Guess have to check with phpBB or alternatively embed a 3rd party poll script.
Very interesting comment. Not very sure how to set up this \"poll\" yet. Won't we have to list all the secondary schools also for parents to state their choice schools?ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2041596\" time=\"1633866559\" user_id=\"3:
[quote=putien post_id=2041553 time=1633847093 user_id=29927]T-score is over, we just keep it simple.
Come Nov when PSLE results are out, setup a poll for all 29 (4-32) possible AL scores.
The KS community can help one another by indicating the score of their P6 child/children truthfully and anonymously. A high participation rate will give us an idea of the % distribution of the AL scores for 2021 cohort. This way, we can make an informed decision when choosing the secondary schools and hopefully avoid balloting.
For parents interested in IP schools for their child, take note that around 4,000 Sec 1 students enter the IP each year, which is roughly 10% of the PSLE cohort. The top 1/3 of this group who are Singapore citizens qualify for ESIS which is about 3% of the cohort. The poll results will help you to decide on the odds of getting into IP.
Listing the AL scores will suffice. Thanks Chief![/quote]I agree. No point polling for school choices (which can change at the drop of a hat, or depending if neighbor want/don’t want same school as you). The PSLE score OTOH won’t change, so can be polled. -
One issue polling here is that there’s likely a huge reporting bias. I’m guessing there will be differences vs the national average.
But we can definitely try. -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041606\" time=\"1633870296\" user_id=\"188234:
What I think is very important is to highlight that other than converting t-score to AL score using student actual raw score, MOE did not change or modify the S1 option form, such as school choices and order of school choices in the simulation. This mean MOE simulation did not simulate how the order or choice of schools may change based on predetermined AL COP. The impact of the simulation may be bigger for schools with lower AL COP range due to possible AL5 or AL6 subject, but not so for IP schools with COP range of A6 to A8
Why don't you just check with MOE yourself if you don't believe anyone (people have been trying to tell you the below since May. Most have given up but I guess I'm the only :stupid: :stupid: :stupid: ). I've posted the question I sent to MOE and their reply. And they don't need a super computer or AI to run what I mentioned.
#1. Took 2020 Actual PSLE Raw Marks and Converted to AL Terms.
#2. Took 2020 Actual S1 Option Forms
#3. Post all AL4s to a school based on their S1 Option Form, then AL5s, etc, etc, etc
#4. See when the school is full. That's the Indicative AL COP.
My last reply on this topic. Thank you and good luck to your child with the PSLE Results and S1 Posting.
According to MOE website, AL COP for each school is based on the actual last student admitted to the particular school and course, and the only way to determine the COP is to track the result of the student with the lowest combine raw score or t-score within the same AL COP score band. Hence we can then say the raw score of these last students from the various schools will be close to or equal to the lowest possible raw score within the AL COP band. E.g. AL6 = 350
Once these facts and conditions are established, we can start looking at how we can track the estimated t-score equivalent for AL COP.
To reduce the margin of error, we can use the actual 2020 t-score COP of AL6 COP school in MOE simulation. The advantage of using AL6 COP schools is the lower margin of error since AL6 can only be achieved with 1122 or 1113 combination subjects.
(NOTE : The purpose of this exercise is to track the Cut Of Point, which mean the LOWEST raw scores)
1) What is the lowest possible raw score for AL6 PSLE score?
350 (90 90 90 80 / 90 90 85 85)
2) What is the lowest possible raw score for AL5 PSLE score?
355 (90 90 90 85)
3) Which are the schools with indication COP of AL6 in 2020?
MGS (AL6), HCI(AL6), RGS(AL6), RI(AL6)
4) What are their actual t-score COP in 2020?
MGS (257), RI (259), HCI (257), RGS (261)
5) If 350 is the lowest possible raw score, what will be the most likely t-score equivalent?
Since 350 is the lowest possible raw score for AL6 and 257 is the lowest t-score among the AL6 COP school, we can then say that 350 is approx. 257 in terms of T-scores.
6) Can we determine the raw score / t score conversation multiplying factor?
Yes, we can make a reasonably accurate estimate for 2020 simply by 257/350 = 0.7342
7) What will be the margin of error?
Unfortunately, T-score doesn't show the decimal point, which mean MGS 257 and HCI 257 could be anything between 256.5 to 257.4 Hence margin of error will be around +0.4/-0.5 t-score
What are the lowest possible raw scores for AL4, AL5, AL6, AL7 band?
The difference between each band is only 5 raw marks
AL4 = 360
AL5 = 355
AL6 = 350
AL7 = 345
9) What is 5 raw scores in terms of t-score?
Using the estimated multiplying factor from Q6, 5 raw marks will be around 3.67 t-score (for 2020)
10) What will be the estimated t-score for AL5 (355)?
257(350) + 3.67 = Approx 261.
11) If 261 = AL5 COP, why isnt RGS AL COP AL5?
AL6 raw score can range from 350 to 378 (100, 100, 89, 89 or 100 100 100 84) or 257 to 278 t-score.
12), what will be the estimated t-score equivalent for other AL band
Based on MOE official 2020 AL COP indication and 2020 t-score COP
AL6\t257-261
AL7 254-257
AL8\t251-255
AL9\t250
The lowest t-score for each AL band are
AL6 : 257
AL7 : 254
AL8 : 251
AL9 : 250 (only 1 school, hence this cannot be taken as lowest)
Earlier we have also established that 5 raw mark is around 3.67 t-score,
Assuming AL6 = 257.00, the lowest possible t-score are
AL 6 = 257.00
AL 7 = 253.33
AL 8 = 249.66
AL9 = 245.99
13) What can we learn from this exercise?
Using historical t-score COP as a reference, we can almost see which schools have got higher risk for balloting.
e.g.
1)\tback in 2020 the t-score COP for TJC was 250, whereas this year we can expect AL9 students with 246 t-score equivalents to apply for AL9 COP school with AL9 results. Which mean confirmed balloting for AL9 balloting at TJC will small chance that TJC may end up to be AL8 COP
2)\t2020 RGS 261 COP is already touching or surpass the minimum possible score for AL5, hence AL6 balloting risk for RGS will likely be high with a small chance of AL5 COP
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Veyron\" post_id=\"2041689\" time=\"1633926330\" user_id=\"30663:
For the sake of clarification, I hope you can answer Q1 of my earlier post.[/quote]My post was very clear. I think all these while quite a no of us have proven u don’t need clarifications at all as u believe u have all the correct answers, whether real or perceived. The cow babies are coming home soon so time might be better spent playing some music for them while they relax after school. :siam:lassie girl\" post_id=\"2041646\" time=\"1633914214\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2041646 time=1633914214 user_id=35383]
There are a few things that I think is important to clarify to avoid getting other parents confused.
1) Are you sure that the grading band for A* (which we know is 91 and above) can change from year to year?
Perhaps you have mistaken T-score for Primary School Grading because subject grading doesnt yo-yo like t-score and the passing grade is always 50.
2) It will be difficult to link t-score to raw score if MOE didn't publish the AL range of 2020 S1 posting. And since we already know that T-score cut of point for 2020 S1 posting, it will not be difficult to link AL COP to T-score, simply by calculating the lowest possible raw score within each AL band.
3) You can't really have any game plan if you don't have historical data to help assess risk and chance in S1 posting. In the past, parents can rely on past year t-score COP pattern, so they know exactly what is the chances.
Under AL system, you may know what is 2020 AL COP, but you can't really assess the balloting risk unless you dig deeper into the raw score and try to figure out what is the estimated t-score equivalent.
For example. If I am to ask you, for a student with AL6 combine score, what do think will be the balloting risk when applying for schools for AL6 COP?
We had the good fortune of learning from this KS community through all the sharing and value added info from parents here. Objective and constructive opinions, as well as real personal experiences shared by other parents have certainly helped us. I do not see the point of debating on the fallacy of certain t score = certain AL, especially since information and facts have already been presented to debunk the myth. We are all adults who learn what we want to learn, and will in turn benefit from what we want to focus on.
Parents need to understand the game has changed. Under the AL system, students gain entry to schools based on a maximum of 29 possible scores (from the best possible score of 4 to the worst of 32), compared to more than 200 possible aggregates under the old system. Gone are the days of t score where we can “try until we hit the ‘best’ school our t score can get’, simply because now choice ranking matters. MOE has told us to look beyond schools’ psle score ranges when choosing a sec school, and look for the best fit. These other factors include schools’ programmes and initiatives, CCAs, culture as well as home-school distance. In other words, when choosing between two or three schools with the same entry score range, pick the one you and your child like best! Competition is always tougher at the top. Someone with the exact AL cut off, eg AL6 (although this is only known after the posting exercise) will certainly stand a better chance of getting the slot if their choice ranking is higher than their competitors who can’t decide which one of the 3 schools they want and thus decide to put all 3 to “just try”. This brings me back to - choose a school that best suits your child simply because now choice ranking matters.
Like I always tell my kids, adapt and change game plan when the game changes. This will be the sure win way. All the best to everyone for the school postings.
Edited to add: 对牛弹琴 :rotflmao:
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