2022 P1 Registration Exercise for 2023 In-take

[jellytjelly]

Thank you everyone for the advice. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

[ChiefKiasu]

I posted a new article here because I couldn't post any pictures. Please comment.


https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/article/p1-registration-at-chij-family-of-schools-over-the-years/

[ChiefKiasu]

https://i.imgur.com/ri3onUB.png\">


I just looked at the data again. I listed the total number of places taken at each phase for each year from 2006 all the way to 2021. I placed Phase 2A1 with Phase 2A2 together since they will no longer be distinct from next year onwards.

The results is startling. As you can see, the numbers at Phase 2A1+2A2 has been increasing, from 4377 in 2006, almost doubling to 7314 in 2021. Noticeably, demand for Phase 2B has dropped by almost a thousand, and Phase 2C has been muted since 2006. Phase 2CS remains about the same. So it goes to show that parents were recently homing into popular schools at the earliest stages of the registration.

It is no wonder that MOE has decided to lump Phase 2A1 and 2A2 together and subject it for balloting. I also think the balloting is going to be intense, since the number of places for Phase 2A is smaller by 20 places! :nailbite:

[zac's mum]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2046170\" time=\"1636777792\" user_id=\"3:

https://i.imgur.com/ri3onUB.png\">

I just looked at the data again. I listed the total number of places taken at each phase for each year from 2006 all the way to 2021. I placed Phase 2A1 with Phase 2A2 together since they will no longer be distinct from next year onwards.

The results is startling. As you can see, the numbers at Phase 2A1+2A2 has been increasing, from 4377 in 2006, almost doubling to 7314 in 2021. Noticeably, demand for Phase 2B has dropped by almost a thousand, and Phase 2C has been muted since 2006. Phase 2CS remains about the same. So it goes to show that parents were recently homing into popular schools at the earliest stages of the registration.

It is no wonder that MOE has decided to lump Phase 2A1 and 2A2 together and subject it for balloting. I also think the balloting is going to be intense, since the number of places for Phase 2A is smaller by 20 places! :nailbite:

Just some thoughts:
- from 2017 to 2018 sudden spike probably due to Dragon year baby boom
- from 2019 to 2020 sudden spike probably due to SG50 baby boom
- from 2020 to 2021 sudden spike probably due to SG51 baby boom

So it may be more meaningful if we see the percentage of the total take up (rather than the raw numbers).

[Liew Nga Wing]

Don’t understand as "a decrease birthrate in recent year" is stated in the original article but "baby boom from 2017" is also stated in the forum, so which one is correct?

[ChiefKiasu]

zac's mum\" post_id=\"2046174\" time=\"1636780337\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=2046174 time=1636780337 user_id=53606]
Just some thoughts:
- from 2017 to 2018 sudden spike probably due to Dragon year baby boom
- from 2019 to 2020 sudden spike probably due to SG50 baby boom
- from 2020 to 2021 sudden spike probably due to SG51 baby boom

So it may be more meaningful if we see the percentage of the total take up (rather than the raw numbers).[/quote]

https://i.imgur.com/YWgzu76.png\">

Thanks for the suggestion! We have plotted the percentage of the total take up rate here.

As seen, the only column with significant increase in take up rate (from 8.41% to 17.46%) over the years is the Phase 2A phases. No other column has the same type of increase.

I've also listed the number of empty places remaining after Phase 2CS each year. While the value in 2021 is indeed lower than the 13.09% in 2006, there are even lower values like in 2018 when it was only 7.38% left (probably due to Dragon year babies).

[zac's mum]

Fantastic!


- Siblings take up % has been fairly consistent
- 2B take up % has declined probably due to fewer PV opportunities during Covid years
- and the 2A shift is truly (as you said; sorry for doubting) shocking

[ChiefKiasu]

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2046176\" time=\"1636782408\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2046176 time=1636782408 user_id=195250]
Don't understand as \"a decrease birthrate in recent year\" is stated in the original article but \"baby boom from 2017\" is also stated in the forum, so which one is correct?[/quote]

The increase due to Dragon year babies is only momentary. It is an abnormal year.

[Liew Nga Wing]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2046025\" time=\"1636694525\" user_id=\"3:

I posted a new article here because I couldn't post any pictures. Please comment.

https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/article/p1-registration-at-chij-family-of-schools-over-the-years/

Why does the Government increases the balloting requirements for P1 registration and even the secondary entries?

I think the reason as below:

After the 2008 financial crisis, most western countries including Singapore are facing the issue of \"worsening of disparity between the rich and the poor\". In Singapore, it manifested as the topic of whether \"Foreigners takes away Singaporeans rice bowl\" during 2011 General elections. And in some western countries, there is even the increase of \"Hatred against the Rich\" phenomenon.

As Education can be considered as a powerful driver of Social Mobility, therefore the Government has to make sure all kids are having the same chance to go into those \"Good schools\" despite whether their parents are alumni or volunteer of the \"Good Schools\" or whether their parents can afford to pay the expensive tuition fee to increase their kids' chance of getting a good PSLE results.

For the intensify of competition for \"Good schools \" during P1 Registration, I think due to the decrease of birthrate in the recent year, most couple are planning to have only 1 or max 2 kids therefore they are more willing to push their \"only\" kid into the \"Good Schools\" where they believe their kids will achieve a good PSLE results.

Remember the time for our generation where most families are having more than 4 kids, most parents just want to send their kids to their neighbour schools so that they no need to spend so much time on the transportation between home and schools.

[ChiefKiasu]

Not very sure why. But from the data, it is clear that while demand is indeed increasing for the earlier Phase 2A, actually, things are the same or even dropping in the other Phases. So it seems that parents are now more concerned with getting their kids earlier in at the earlier Phases, using all available means like joining the alumni. So by removing that incentive, I think things will go back to what it was. But they also decreased the Phase 2A vacancies by a whopping 20 seats. THAT is the big unknown here.


I think for the 1st year, competition will be very intense at Phase 2A, since a lot of parents were caught off guard, having paid to join the alumni before the announcement of the changes, so they will have to continue with going for Phase 2A. As years go on, assuming no change to status quo, I think the intensity for Phase 2A will go down a little, but not much especially if the school is reputable. But competition for Phase 2B and 2C will intensify as those that failed in Phase 2A will drop to these later stages.

One thing is for sure... school alumnis are going to suffer. How are they going to get funded? :?: