2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[Veyron]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2048837\" time=\"1637941150\" user_id=\"3:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048818\" time=\"1637938291\" user_id=\"30663:

NYGH COP for 2020 was 261 AL7(M), which is why I have indicated its 259+2

Why 259 is not AL6? That is just that because AL7 score range can be as high as 275 if AL1 subject are in the high 90s.

Will that all change for 2021? That is highlight possible because a 257 AL6 is now rank ahead of 259+2

Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.

Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.

e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.

Why?

1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M

What this mean?

There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.

At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.

In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.

However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result

One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.


e.g. student with AL11

choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP

At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.

However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.

So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.

Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.

[zac's mum]

MOE has mentioned that the actual COPs are expected to move up or down by 1.


The simplest way is to choose very carefully, similar to DSA, don’t put a school that you’re half-hearted in just because it’s an elite school, or just because your merit allowed you to. Then when you get stuck there, regret big time and try to get out.

[m3i_m3i]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2048837\" time=\"1637941150\" user_id=\"3:

[quote=Veyron post_id=2048818 time=1637938291 user_id=30663]NYGH COP for 2020 was 261 AL7(M), which is why I have indicated its 259+2

Why 259 is not AL6? That is just that because AL7 score range can be as high as 275 if AL1 subject are in the high 90s.

Will that all change for 2021? That is highlight possible because a 257 AL6 is now rank ahead of 259+2

Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.

Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.

e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.

Why?

1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M

What this mean?

There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.

At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.

In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.

However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result

One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.


e.g. student with AL11

choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP

At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.

However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.

So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.

Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.[/quote]The increase for S1 posting express should be from decreasing C from 50 to 45 at AL6
So if we talk about AL18 or better, I think there will be little changed only.
If we talk about AL19-22, there may be bigger fluctuation.

[Veyron]

shaunee\" post_id=\"2048852\" time=\"1637946283\" user_id=\"56538:

Hi, my girl has AL7 (no HCL) and we live in the west.

She is keen on IP and her first choice is MGS (IP). However, MGS (IP) has COP of 6.

What are the chances of getting in? Thanks in advance.

There may be a good chance for MGS IP at AL7 as the new AL system may sway some potential AL6 applicants from MGS to RGS. In the past, if students doesn't get 259 and above, they will be less inclined to apply for RGS, but under AL system, 258 students will be eligible. FYI, the difference between 2020 MGS 258 AL6 and 257 AL7 is only 1 t-score. So it's definitely possible.

What is most important is your DD 2nd and 3rd choice. I would assume NJC and possible SCGS will be among them.

[MerlionInGermany]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048866\" time=\"1637972498\" user_id=\"56690:

Anyone has views on choosing between Bukit Panjang Govt High and Swiss Cottage?

The two schools are nearby and have the same indicative AL cut-off (11)

Swiss in the past was a 23x COP school but has gained popularity over the years and slowly rose to 24x COP. It seem very popular amongst the kids too as I hear a lot of them aiming for this school.

BP has a good reputation and used to be high 24x COP and seem to have dropped a bit in popularity.

Which one is a better choice?

BP is autonomous and Swiss is not? Or is Swiss also autonomous?

BP has a red uniform and is in the cck residential area. I dont know where is Swiss. Is accessibility the same for you, for both schools?

What about cca?

[soloestoy]

m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048872\" time=\"1637974449\" user_id=\"18745:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:

[quote=ChiefKiasu post_id=2048837 time=1637941150 user_id=3]

Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.

Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.

e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.

Why?

1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M

What this mean?

There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.

At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.

In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.

However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result

One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.


e.g. student with AL11

choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP

At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.

However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.

So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.

Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.

The increase for S1 posting express should be from decreasing C from 50 to 45 at AL6
So if we talk about AL18 or better, I think there will be little changed only.
If we talk about AL19-22, there may be bigger fluctuation.[/quote]Someone in another thread calculated the absolute number qualified for express is about the same as last year. Higher percentage is actually due to smaller cohort size in 2021:

2019 = 40,256 x 66.3% = 26,690
2020 = 39,995 x 66.3% = 26,517
2021 = 39,119 x 68.4% = 26,757

[Veyron]

m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048872\" time=\"1637974449\" user_id=\"18745:

The increase for S1 posting express should be from decreasing C from 50 to 45 at AL6
So if we talk about AL18 or better, I think there will be little changed only.
If we talk about AL19-22, there may be bigger fluctuation.

Not exactly, Under AL system, 45 is now equal to 64, because AL6 covers 45 to 64. If a student score 45, he or she is as good as 64 for that subject.

As long as it is possible to include a AL6 subject within the AL COP, that possibility cannot be excluded.

e.g. at the top, its now possible to score AL9 with AL 1 + 1 + 1 + 6 = AL9. (approx >231)
if we move further down at AL14 COP, its now possible to have 2 AL6 subjects, e.g. AL6 + 6 + 1 + 1 (approx >198)

As we are dealing with a cohort size of around 39,500 students, any sort of permutation is highly possible, perhaps not so much to the extreme.

[JGMum]

MerlionInGermany\" post_id=\"2048720\" time=\"1637919770\" user_id=\"2964:

JGMum\" post_id=\"2048696\" time=\"1637916177\" user_id=\"2001:

[quote=MerlionInGermany post_id=2048646 time=1637908573 user_id=2964]

I think you should have been informed about the AMR. If the AMR is 8M, then you put nygh as first choice, and the total number of nyps who put nygh as first choice is within the quota, then you should get in. If quota set aside for nyps who put nygh as first choice, is filled by 8D and better, then you will not get in.

Do affliated students get priority over other students who scored better AL scores?
Nygh sets aside a fixed number of vacancies for the nyps students, this number is according to the percentage dictated by MOE. This percentage thing is the same as 2019 and 2020 psle.

I was wondering how affiliation works under the new AL system. Thanks for clarifying.
Would affiliated schools like St Nicks OP, Catholic High OP, Paya Lebar Methodist, etc. use the same system?
That is, set aside a fixed percentage dictated by MOE for affiliated students, and not admit all students who meet the indicative affiliated COP, unless number of affiliated students who choose the sec school < MOE quota?

You are right.
Same system for all sec schools taking in students from their affiliated pri sch under affiliation route.
The flow chart is, meet AMR? Yes.
Put as first choice? Yes.
Ranked by score.
Quota reached? Not yet. Welcome.
Quota reached? Yes. Join S1 posting with everyone else.[/quote] :thankyou: Thanks MerlionInGermany!

[Veyron]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048875\" time=\"1637974967\" user_id=\"56690:

Someone in another thread calculated the absolute number qualified for express is about the same as last year. Higher percentage is actually due to smaller cohort size in 2021:

2019 = 40,256 x 66.3% = 26,690
2020 = 39,995 x 66.3% = 26,517
2021 = 39,119 x 68.4% = 26,757

Interesting stats.

1) Number of students going into express in 2021 actually higher than the 2019 cohort.
2) There is an increase of 240 students for 2021 over 2020.

If supply (vacancy) remains constant, any increase or decrease in demand, will naturally lead to changes in COP.
In 2020, there was a slight drop in COP for the top IP schools and this could be due to smaller express cohort size.
If the same principle is being applied to 2021, an increase in express stream cohort size should naturally also push up the overall COP for 2021 S1 posting.

[ChiefKiasu]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:

Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with COP AL score.

e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
...

Thank you for trying to get me to understand. I'm sure you meant well, but this was exactly where I stopped understanding what you are saying, because it gets too deep for me.

Yes, we know it is very possible for schools' COP to change either up or down, and it doesn't require an understanding of the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores to know that. It is a matter of demand and supply, and this year its random, because if 2 kids are vying for the same place, and even though one is consistently slightly better than the other, they might end up with the same grades and bidding for the same school. In a bid, it might so happen that the one with slightly better grades lose out.

That is the key difference between t-scores and AL-scores, at least based on my understanding. So even if we are sure about how AL-scores are related to t-scores and we plan accordingly, things might turn out to be very different because of this uncertainty.

I'm sure t-scores and AL-scores are somewhat related, and you might have found the link. But how will it reduce concerns of parents getting their kids into their desired school? How can we defeat the randomness of balloting?

That's the last thing I'll say on this subject based on my limited knowledge, so no need to try to get me to understand. I'm stupid, I know, but sometimes it's a good thing...