Crisis Around the World -War/Health/Weather/Economy/Society

[Liew Nga Wing]

floppy\" post_id=\"2086311\" time=\"1666280003\" user_id=\"97579:

I don't think so. They were favourites for the Sentate before the election season starts because they have so many pick up opportunities. Unfortunately, they had shot themselves in the foot by nominating some weak (i.e. awful) candidates.

Score before voting starts is 50-50. These would be the 3 most critical states (cos the rest are likely to be very boring and win by the same party / people):

1. Nevada
- Cortez Masto (incumbent) vs Adam Laxalt (former State Attorney General)
- Toss-up. Probably the most 'normal' GOP candidate around. Will be critical to GOP chances of winning the Senate
- Voters in the state are suffering badly due to high inflation and a rocky economy
- Possibly 49-51 in GOP favour.

2. Georgia
- Raphael Warnock (incumbent) vs Herschel Walker (football star)
- Star candidate, Trump endorsed, anti-abortionist, a conservative in a conservative leaning state... sounds like baojiak right?
- Unfortunately, turns out in 2009, Walker had paid his then-girlfriend to get an abortion
- Now, polls are pointing to a DEM win
- Possibly back to 50-50 with DEM in control

3. Pennsylvania
- John Fetterman (State Lt Gov) vs Mehmet Oz (famous TV personality and yes, he's a real doctor)
- First, Trump endorsed Sean Parnell in the primary, who had to suspend his campaign due to abuse allegations. Trump then switch camp to endorse Dr Oz over former Bridgewater CEO David McCormick, which probably got the TV personality over the line in the primary... but seriously, that's a awful choice for a Senator
- McCormick would probably have given Fetterman a run for his money
- Nonetheless, the open seat is now leaning in Fetterman's direction
- Possibly 51-49 overall in DEM favour

Considering the direction of the wind, that DEM could emerge from the midterm with a +1 in the Senate is nothing short of amazing. That said, the House will definitely be controlled by the GOP after the midterm. Let's Go Brandon is still going to be screwed big time. Furthermore, the House is way more populistic than the Senate. Expect to see a lot of posturing while nothing gets done in the US of A (that is, apart from anything that has got to do with whacking China - these will be done in double quick time).

You are correct. With the winning of Nevada, the DEM manages to continue control the Senate. 真是料事如神.

[floppy]

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2088674\" time=\"1668341180\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2088674 time=1668341180 user_id=195250]
You are correct. With the winning of Nevada, the DEM manages to continue control the Senate. 真是料事如神.[/quote]

I think anyone who's watching the midterm elections with interest will not be surprised that it will come down to these 3 states:
1. NV
2. PA
3. GA

As it stands, it's likely to be a 51-49 because Warnock (D) has an advantage over Walker (R) in the GA Dec runoff election. I think the 'exciting' thing after the midterm is to see how the two parties will strangle each other while pretending to do real work until the next election in 2024.

[floppy]

For those still following the US midterms, the score for the House is now:

GOP 217 : DEM 204
218 FTW.
GOP has more paths to victory and will likely control the House.

Going to be a messy / exciting two years in Washington.

[floppy]

With the tactical withdrawal of the Russians from Kherson, the new boundary is pretty much drawn. Given that the US midterm is more or less settled, and Winter is definitely coming / here, I think it’s time for the final phase of war and the negotiation of peace.


I expect Zelensky and Ukraine to be given up and sold by the West.

[newkeynesian]

floppy\" post_id=\"2088803\" time=\"1668479984\" user_id=\"97579:

With the tactical withdrawal of the Russians from Kherson, the new boundary is pretty much drawn. Given that the US midterm is more or less settled, and Winter is definitely coming / here, I think it's time for the final phase of war and the negotiation of peace.

I expect Zelensky and Ukraine to be given up and sold by the West.

Meaning what? Will Zelensky be placed under house arrest? Or Zelensky to pick up the pieces in the aftermath? Or Zelensky to take flight and escape to somewhere else?

[floppy]

newkeynesian\" post_id=\"2088815\" time=\"1668492791\" user_id=\"5441:

Meaning what? Will Zelensky be placed under house arrest? Or Zelensky to pick up the pieces in the aftermath? Or Zelensky to take flight and escape to somewhere else?

Very likely, he will be asked to pick up the pieces and move on. If Zelenskyy is telling the https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-tells-g20-dear-g19-leaders-dont-ask-ukraine-to-compromise-russia/, that means the world leaders are already asking him to compromise. Right now, he wants his allies / supporters to provide him with $55b for Ukraine's next year's budget, in additional to millions of weaponry to continue fighting Russia. but I doubt anyone in the west, especially Europe, has that kind of stomach / budget / funds / resources to continue fighting.

[Zeal mummy]

floppy\" post_id=\"2088798\" time=\"1668478695\" user_id=\"97579:

For those still following the US midterms, the score for the House is now:
GOP 217 : DEM 204
218 FTW.
GOP has more paths to victory and will likely control the House.

Going to be a messy / exciting two years in Washington.

I was told that during a recession (or an impending one) the GOP would rule, dominate the elections, as majority of the Americans are still rather conservative. The DEM fare better during boom times.

[floppy]

Zeal mummy\" post_id=\"2088824\" time=\"1668502196\" user_id=\"58173:[quote=\"Zeal mummy\" post_id=2088824 time=1668502196 user_id=58173]
I was told that during a recession (or an impending one) the GOP would rule, dominate the elections, as majority of the Americans are still rather conservative. The DEM fare better during boom times.[/quote]

TBH I don't think that holds true.

The way their congressional districts are drawn (i.e. gerrymandered), you can easily break down their 435 house districts (as well as their states) into deep blue / red, light blue / red and purple districts - which is what many political observers have done every election season. From there, you can easily see which ones are winnable and which are not, based on candidate quality, economic factors, turn out etc. In many deep blue / red districts, the DEM / GOP will win regardless of economic situation or their candidate quality (hence, you can get people like AOC or MTG elected, even though they are really unqualified and experienced enough to be considered).

[floppy]

\"American comeback starts right now.\"


Former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as POTUS.

USA! USA! USA!
:rotflmao:

[newkeynesian]

USA vs USB nearing?