COE trends
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Typically Singaporeans will think of changing cars earliest after 3 yrs, when the common warranty period of 3 yr is up.
The COE was at rock bottom during the last recession in 08/09. Hence those who bought cars at that time, when COE was less than $5K or $10K, would likely hold the cars till the end (for eg., the $101 COE for small car batch, all the cars were driven to the very end 2-3 mth ago).
COE started to hit $30K i think last year. Only when these batch of owners find it worthwhile to scrap in a few years down the road, will there be more scraps and therefore more going back to be recycled every month.
I think that will not happen until maybe 4-6 yr later…
Or maybe when LTA suddenly said they are going to tweak formula again to allow more growth, affecting (increasing) the supply and then trigger all the owners of high-COE cars to change cars in a repeat of the mid-2000s period. -
atrecord:
Yup, yours is familiar tooMadScientist:
Hey bro, you driving a Stream or Toyota? Your nick is very familiar... Almost as if we did \"meet\" before...
Anyways, am quite confident that you should see a chance in about 3 years time, so get ready!
I drive a toyota wish.
Pls share where did you get the confidence from. If really so, then I'll get ready... car would be 8-9 yo then, just abt right time to explore...
tks.
That's right!
TWCSG!
I was about to buy a Wish at that time... then decided against it.
My confidence lies in the analysis I did from a number of angles. It is in my blog, listed in my profile.
Happy reading!
Cheers! -
MMM:
Just want to get some perspective.
I also heard that due to the high no. of COE issued at certain year, in 2-3 years time, there will be a higher availability of COE as some people decide to scrap their car when it's 10 yrs ago. By then the COE is expected to drop/ moderate. On the other hand, I am unsure if the government might change their formula and some of these \"scrapped cars\" COE are not recycled back into the system since the objective is to cap car population. :?
Personally, I don't think COE will fall back to the old level. In any case.... we're already committed already. Too late to think about it.
I stated before, that we would see a \"fair value\" of about $40K or above... reaching there soon.
However, I still think that there is an increasing chance of it getting to a low COE of 10-20K. It will happen... not now, not tomorrow, but that day is coming, given a set of criteria.
My analysis is in my http://trendspottingmadscientist.blogspot.com/2011/07/coe-trend-analysis-by-madscientist-july.html... -
MadScientist:
Interesting read. You're really thorough. I had only analysed the COE trends, when are owners likely to change cars, plus the economy. Didn't factor in taxi fleet changing and interest rates, etc.
That's right!
TWCSG!
I was about to buy a Wish at that time... then decided against it.
My confidence lies in the analysis I did from a number of angles. It is in my blog, listed in my profile.
Happy reading!
Cheers!
If COE is going to come down around 2015, then it is just the right time for me. Pray pray... But if the JPY is still going to be high then maybe will consider other makes... -
atrecord:
Thanks. Glad you enjoyed the read. Hope it works out....
Interesting read. You're really thorough. I had only analysed the COE trends, when are owners likely to change cars, plus the economy. Didn't factor in taxi fleet changing and interest rates, etc.
If COE is going to come down around 2015, then it is just the right time for me. Pray pray... But if the JPY is still going to be high then maybe will consider other makes... -
we are also holding it out...
atrecord:
Interesting read. You're really thorough. I had only analysed the COE trends, when are owners likely to change cars, plus the economy. Didn't factor in taxi fleet changing and interest rates, etc.MadScientist:
That's right!
TWCSG!
I was about to buy a Wish at that time... then decided against it.
My confidence lies in the analysis I did from a number of angles. It is in my blog, listed in my profile.
Happy reading!
Cheers!
If COE is going to come down around 2015, then it is just the right time for me. Pray pray... But if the JPY is still going to be high then maybe will consider other makes... -
krazy:
Aiyah, there goes the spare rims...we are also holding it out...
Bro, we do GB when the time comes, ok? :boogie: -
Going by the transport minister’s speech about reducing the vehicle growth allowed, it looks like COE premium will continue to grow in the future… ouch…
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atrecord:
Going by the transport minister's speech about reducing the vehicle growth allowed, it looks like COE premium will continue to grow in the future... ouch...
Yes, it sure does...
Thing is, it seems that our ministers are really fulfilling the Roman Empire model of imploding our country.
In that same reported article, the Professor commented that they are tackling the wrong issue at hand, by looking at vehicle number growth, when they should be looking at vehicle usage, particularly, when all users are on the roads at the same time.
I see a little beyond that...
That by doing so, that ministry would join the housing ministry in stabbing our fertility rate to drop below 1.0. (This to me is another example of Team Singapore not talking to each other and get mis-coordinated in their efforts)
Here's why... as parents, I am sure many of us here would prefer to have the use of a car, be it at some point of time, if not always. This is particularly true if we have more than 2 children. Now, first we limited the number of housing by messing up the supply, surging the demand (discussion in other threads already), importing inflation (not that we can help that very much as it is a global tsunami, IMHO). Now, we make it even more difficult for parents to have a family transport... let alone, about the transport usage.
The young generation whose numbers have been almost halved due to policies, face globalization pressures, etc. and now contend with another form of inflation in their home expenditures, which will in turn impact their decision on mutiple births.
Imagine this... we have a smaller number of fertile married couples, and there are two ways to increase fertility rate, one is to increase the number of married couples ( which is incoherent in concept as we already reduced the numbers or critical mass a generation ago ), and the other, to encourage current mass to have more children.
By working for national policies, and against large(r) family requirements, anything tweaking that perturbs the natural laws of population growth can easily have negative impacts on our fertility rates.
Higher COEs is one thing... having other repercussions is another.
PS. In my model, the mean at current supply and demand should have COEs about 40K, although it is a bit inflated just now... if they cut, then the curve would just shift. -
may I suggest to the minister of transport mr lui ($$) that one free coe be given to family with 3 children and 2 free coe to be given to family with 5 children and above. given singaporeans’ addiction to cars, it will sure help raise population fertility rate.
once the target population / fertility rate has been reached, phase out the second free COE
lidat can help families who really need the car when the kids are still young
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