fvonny\" post_id=\"2073730\" time=\"1657255758\" user_id=\"198669:

Hi, Our family is PR and our house is around 5 minutes from Dakota MRT. I'm not sure how big is the chance for us to get our girl to TKPS. Anyone can give feedback how likely is the chance for this year P1 registration? Also if anyone can give suggestion with another school near by with a better chance at phase 2C? Thank you.

TKPS is situation in Marine Parade area, with at least 20 more places for Tao Nan, more 2C may try to enrol for Tao Nan. TKPS intake of 200 since 2019 has resulted in at best result within 1km Ballot for PR (2019) and 2km ballot for SC for 2020 and 2021. Current numbers seems to be pointing to a similar outcome. It looks likely your current location is 1-2km from TKPS, at PR + >1-2km, it's not so safe.

Near your area, there are Geylang Methodist (GMPS) and Haig Girls', GMPS has increased phase 1 applicants, may translate into lesser places in 2C (need the 2A final numbers for confirmation) (last year not full at 2C but available places need to be around 145), whilst Haig Girls' seems to be roughly same as last year (Haig Girls' required balloting for 1-2km for PR). As Kong Hwa will have some increase in places in 2C, it means more people around the area may go for it, leaving some opportunities for you to go for Haig girls).

If you fine with just girls' school, you can consider CHIJ Katong under 2C and St Anthony's Canossian under 2C or 2Cs.

As you may notice the SC/PR and distance priority ranking, the disadvantage is that if the application become full somehow, you may be pushed out. So you can select say between HG or CHIJ Katong under 2C with a backup plan of gg for SAC under 2Cs. Please use onemap to confirm your distance from the various schools, as I am using the map using Dakota MRT as point of reference.

Lexy\" post_id=\"2073512\" time=\"1657129728\" user_id=\"12180:

This is a reasonable explanation. Putting some perspective to the day 1 of phase 2A number, it probably make up of around 40% of the eventual total 2A applications. Around 50 schools are currently 20-50 applicants below last year numbers and 22 schools are currently 51-99 applicants less than last year's numbers and 3 schools have difference of more than 100. It's still a long way to go.

Another 2k+ were added today. 16 schools are oversubscribed so far:

Catholic High School
Chongzheng Primary School
Frontier Primary School
Horizon Primary School
Methodist Girls’ School
Nan Hua Primary School
Oasis Primary School
Pei Chun Public School
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School
Punggol Green Primary School
Punggol View Primary School
Rosyth School
South View Primary School
Temasek Primary School
West Spring Primary School
Westwood Primary School

Another 10 schools are currently with less than 10 spots left. Of those 10, Wellington caught my eye as it could be a MK effect, up from 48 to 74 so far in 2A. SCGS and Admiralty are also not in the shortlist of 35.

When I compared this year's applicants so far vs last year's applicants in 2A, around 10 schools have >40 lesser applicants so far with Rulang recording only 39 vs last year's 132. Hopefully it's not a case of 2A2 folks not knowing they can apply under the merged 2A phase

Given that phase 2 becoming more competitive due to the 1/3 rule, I think more people would apply under 2A if they are eligible. Reckon we still have another approximately 2k applicants to go.

The one week wait till 14 July may not be so pleasant for some.

beatbo\" post_id=\"2073504\" time=\"1657116216\" user_id=\"178388:

Actually I don’t think most of it is due to parents adopting “wait and see”, there isn’t much alternative at phase 2A for most people anyway it’s try and if fail try again at 2B and / or 2C.

I think a possible explanation for the differences in number could be due to difference in how a school treats an application as duly received.

Some schools report the number of all applications first before verifying / asking for supporting documents (it’s an interim number anyway if there’s any applications rejected later on for lack of supporting documents or mismatch of information it will be adjusted downwards).

Other schools may adopt a more cautious approach and only report the number of applications for which they have received and verified supporting documents to be proper. They don’t deem online applications to be duly completed until they have verified everything.

The school that I have applied for emailed for supporting documents only in the afternoon. Some parents might have not prepared everything before hand (or not prepared well enough for example my school asked for all documents to be combined together in single pdf and it took me a while to get this done and i think there are some who could take longer for being even less tech savvy than me. Some may have submitted but might have some issues and the school have asked them to rectify / include more complete documentation.

This is a reasonable explanation. Putting some perspective to the day 1 of phase 2A number, it probably make up of around 40% of the eventual total 2A applications. Around 50 schools are currently 20-50 applicants below last year numbers and 22 schools are currently 51-99 applicants less than last year's numbers and 3 schools have difference of more than 100. It's still a long way to go.

Sillyjc\" post_id=\"2073467\" time=\"1657102257\" user_id=\"180120:

floppy\" post_id=\"2073490\" time=\"1657107708\" user_id=\"97579:[quote=floppy post_id=2073490 time=1657107708 user_id=97579]1. You won’t have a chance at SNGS in Phase 2B. Too late to move houses. I think you can forget about that option.

2. HIPS 88 vacancies for Phase 2A is the lowest it has ever been. If it doesn’t carry enough places to Phase 2B (and I seriously doubt it will), you are also unlikely to have a chance for HiPS given that you are > 2km.

3. If you are planning ahead, you have two possible pairing for your boy and girls in Phase 2B, assuming the situation doesn’t change:
Combo A - CHIJ OLN & Montfort
Combo B - CHIJ OLGC & St. Gabriel
Both schools are relatively close by.

4. You can, of cos, choose Valour (no ballot) or Punggol Green (ballot for SC < 1km) in Phase 2C. No need to worry about different schools and will be close by. Once the eldest get in, the other two will follow in Phase 1.

Sillyjc

Floppy has very given very sound combos, do consider. Another combo can be CHIJ Katong + St Stephen

Based on the choices and option you are considering:

SNGS will sure be balloting within 1km for 2B, based on your distance, there is no chance.
HIPS will most probably have also 20 spots left for 2B which will translate to balloting within 1km, so based on your distance, there is no chance.

As for Punggol Green, its most probably be balloting within 1km for 2C and for Valour, since the Phase 1 applicants increased by alot, I would think its a balloting within 1km in 2C for Valour as well. Its indicating ard 2 times oversubscription for Punggol Green and 1.5 times for Valour

You can consider your options for the 2B then see if you want to register them first of all under the available options/combo. Ultimately do consider if you want to exercise the 2B options or you prefer to go for the ones near you, as you may notice, its quite dense in your area, I see around 7 to 8 schools need balloting in 2C and mostly balloting within 1km.

All the best

floppy\" post_id=\"2073415\" time=\"1657088031\" user_id=\"97579:

St. Gabriel is a good call.

St. Stephen may be worth a look as well. If I stick to the 'look east' approach, I will keep an eye on Ngee Ann at the same time. I'll probably position myself within < 1km from Ngee Ann, and if the school is available for PR < 1km, I'll go for it. Else, I'll go for St. Stephen. However, if I prefer single gender schools, I'll stick to St. Stephen.

For co-ed schools, I will add De La Salle and Geylang methodist.

As you need to use your current address for registration, on take up for St Gabriel this year is comparable to last year so far, it may be quite close to full capacity at 2C and since you are >2km away, there is some risk.

Geylang methodist take up so far is 16 more than last year 103 vs 87, so look likely to be full capacity at 2C and seems to be >2km from your location as well.

De La Salle and St Stephen will have lower risk of gg to ballot in 2C.

All the above schools have some form of affiliation to secondary school.

Whether to choose a co-ed or boy's schools also depends if he has a younger sister or brother.

Tiongbahrumum\" post_id=\"2073360\" time=\"1657069777\" user_id=\"143725:

From 45-45 to 30-60, this could be the case for ACSJ. Effectively, the odds for P2B will be worse for schools for most of the competitive schools and the odds for P2C very much improved. So many unknowns for the Monkey kids this year! It would be interesting to see the fight in golden triangle for ACSJ-ACSP-SJIJ. The P2C battle for SJIJ would likely be a lot more sane this year for P2C.

At the moment the projected figures assuming last year 2A application numbers for the 3 schools in your order:
2B: this year 26-20-36 vs last year 33-26-59
2C: this year 50-40-70 vs last year 33-25-59

Looks likely 2B will be all <1km ballot

For 2C, it will be highest vacancies available for ACSP and SJIJ throughout the records that I can see. Nevertheless, I briefly remember potential applicants within 1km of ACSJ and ACSP are more than 50 and 40 respectively. Whilst a balloting zone for SJIJ of 1-2km. As it becomes prevalent that the distance factor is more important, we may see more people moving closer in coming years.

Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=\"2073263\" time=\"1656995152\" user_id=\"195250:[quote=\"Liew Nga Wing\" post_id=2073263 time=1656995152 user_id=195250]
Could help to arrange the above information on the projection of Phase 2A in a more systematic way? Maybe according to their area.

For example :

1. Jurong West - Schools likely Balloting in Phase 2A : ---,---,---,--- Schools with some buffer in Phase 2A : ---, ---, ---,---
2. Punggol - Schools likely Balloting in Phase 2A : ---,---,---,--- Schools with some buffer in Phase 2A : ---, ---, ---,---[/quote]

As systematic as I want it to be, it's actually everywhere. West Spring is in Bukit Panjang, West wood is in Jurong West. Almost every area has one or 2. Only the Punggol ones seem like a cluster.

Anyway for 2A, alternative choices are limited, maybe parents' alma mater, siblings' or MK. Its not like I am in MK of Springdale, but I want to change my choice to enrol to Punggol View under 2A. Those who enrolled into the MK actually would have a rough idea the size of the graduating cohort of the MK.

floppy\" post_id=\"2073239\" time=\"1656984961\" user_id=\"97579:

I think the MKs and Punggol schools are generally safe in Phase 2A (note: I didn't examine in detail all of them). Most of these schools do not have generations of alumni with offsprings waiting to apply to the school.

I have these under watchlist:

MK:
Balloting likely this year:
West Spring
West wood
Frontier
Horizon (not as bad as last year but should still be oversubscribed)
Punggol Green
Punggol View
Oasis
Fern green (but maybe due to reduction in intake number)
Gongshang
Riverside
Temasek (MK effect kick in next year)
Princess Elizabeth (MK effect kick in next year)
SouthView (MK effect only from 2024)



With some buffer:
Punggol Cove
Valour - Phase 1 number increased the most in the area
Waterway - Phase 1 number dropped so maybe able to escape ballot
Springdale - Phase 1 number dropped so maybe able to escape ballot
Huamin - Phase 1 number dropped so maybe able to escape ballot
Fengshan - MK effect should kick in next year
Dazhong - buffer seems thinner
Alexandra - MK effect to kick in next year
Punggol primary - 2024
Yangzheng - intake dropped by 20, MK effect 2024, very thin buffer.
Jurong west primary - last year numbers may not be reflective for this year. so can watch this for effect
Junyuan - last year numbers may not be reflective for this year. so can watch this for effect
Sembawang Primary - last year numbers may not be reflective for this year
Hougang Primary - 2025
Tanjong Katong - 2023
Casuarina - 2024
Elias park - 2025

floppy\" post_id=\"2073246\" time=\"1656987569\" user_id=\"97579:

FWIW,

MOE: TXXXXXXXX has secured a place in XXX at PHASE 1. School will provide reporting details.

Congratulations!

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2072512\" time=\"1656560187\" user_id=\"3:

Thank you for your detailed analysis!

I'll list your projected Phase 2A schools that needs balloting in order:
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary)
Catholic High
CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls’ School
Chongzheng Primary
Fairfield Methodist
Fern Green Primary
Frontier Primary
Gongshang Primary
Holy Innocents’ Primary
Horizon Primary
Methodist Girls’ School
Nan Hua Primary
Pasir Ris Primary
Pei Chun Public
Pei Hwa Presbyterian
Punggol Green Primary
Punggol View Primary
Radin Mas
Rulang Primary
South View Primary
Tao Nan
Temasek Primary
West Spring Primary
Westwood Primary
Yu Neng Primary

Only 2 schools are not in our list of projections:
Fern Green Primary
Punggol View Primary

Fern Green Primary did suffer a -40 seat reduction in its vacancies, while Punggol View lost -30 seats.
So they might become more competitive this year.
We shall see... :nailbite:

Chief

Day 2 of phase 1 result is out. Total applicants are comparable to last year’s numbers.
Computing the 2A available numbers and comparing it to last year 2A’s applicants, 34 schools would be oversubscribed in 2A. I added NYPS to the list (making it 35) as last year application number was just on 2A1, perhaps a range of 180 would a more reasonable number. PHPPS, SNGS, Rosyth, CHS and ATS are the usual suspects who gets balloting in 2A1. We can watch the MKs + Punggol ones this year.

The most hotly contest ones should be PHPPS, Riverside, Gongshang, Chongzheng, Frontier, SNGS (in terms of % oversubscribed)

Below are the additional 10 schools (on top of the 25 listed previously):
ATS
HPPS
NYPS
Northland
Oasis Primary
Princess Elizabeth Primary
Red Swastika School
Riverside Primary School
Rosyth School
St. Hilda’s Primary School

To put it into context, last year 17 schools were oversubscribed in 2A1 and 2A2, a total of 300+ were balloted out. Whilst this year, projected 35 schools to be oversubscribed and around 800 applicants to be balloted out in 2A.

I can further add some observation to phase 2B. Projected 36 schools to be oversubscribed (assuming 2A and 2B applicants per last year) as compared to 28 schools last year. It is not too bad considering the total available vacancies in 2B projected to drop by 6k. But I think the intensity of some schools will be worse especially:

1. SJIJ
2. St Hilda
3. Admiralty
4. MSHS
5. HIPS
6. Chongfu
7. MGS
8. ACSP
9. CHIJ TPY
10. ACSJ
11. MBS
12. SCGS
13. KCPPS
14. PLMGS

All the best to everyone planning for the next phase.