What's with COEs nowadays?

[limlim]

coolbaby:

I'm really disappointed with the Government, especially Minister Liu. They never take into consideration for those who really 'need' a car and those who 'want'.

How to put that into consideration? What are the factors?

Household size? income? distance from workplace? job nature? family members with medical condition? What efforts in needed by the authorities to regulate these?

if job nature, then, the company shd be the ones to provide the transport.

Almost every housing estate in Sg got access to public transport..

Hence.. I'm curious how to differentiate a \"need\" from a \"want\"?

Actually, this seems like a good suggestion in theory.. but in practice how to implement?

[KSP]

how about having to pay half the COE price in cash… can’t take loan together with the car and spread over 10yrs…and bidders have to pay what their bid price and not the lowest successfully bid price… would this help to reduce COE price? but i also worry there is no impact to the rich lah…

[NY1969]

With the increase in quota, what do u think the premium will be by end of this year?

[atrecord]

So far the increase in quota for cars is not significant, so any reduction in the premium is also not expected to be significant. If the trend continues, and the govt doesn’t lift the car loan curb, then there is a chance that the premium might drop by hopefully $5-8 K.


If the quota increases significantly, then there is a chance for the premium to drop significantly.

And I am hoping that it happens within the next 18 mth…

[whizzard]

atrecord:

So far the increase in quota for cars is not significant, so any reduction in the premium is also not expected to be significant. If the trend continues, and the govt doesn't lift the car loan curb, then there is a chance that the premium might drop by hopefully $5-8 K.


If the quota increases significantly, then there is a chance for the premium to drop significantly.

And I am hoping that it happens within the next 18 mth...

The quota will increase fairly significantly predominantly due to the expiry of existing COEs. These people would need to bid for a new COE if they wish to continue driving.

Hence, I don't expect prices of COE to drop significantly because the increase in supply of COEs comes with an increase in demand for COEs.

[atrecord]

whizzard:

atrecord:

So far the increase in quota for cars is not significant, so any reduction in the premium is also not expected to be significant. If the trend continues, and the govt doesn't lift the car loan curb, then there is a chance that the premium might drop by hopefully $5-8 K.


If the quota increases significantly, then there is a chance for the premium to drop significantly.

And I am hoping that it happens within the next 18 mth...

The quota will increase fairly significantly predominantly due to the expiry of existing COEs. These people would need to bid for a new COE if they wish to continue driving.

Hence, I don't expect prices of COE to drop significantly because the increase in supply of COEs comes with an increase in demand for COEs.

I am hoping that the govt made a mistake at calculating the renewal of COEs again. Previously they gave too many, so COEs $ dropped; then later tightened it years later, and COEs $ shot up. Hopefully this time relax some more, then once demand not so much more than supply, could drop a fair bit.

And if they continue with the loan curb, then it will further control the buying, so increasing chances of COE dropping. So it is not a given that everyone whose car is expiring, will have the means to get a new car.

If the OMV of a mid sized car (Latio) is $16K, the PARF is $8K. Offset this against a new mid sized car (Sylphy) price of $106K, which requires 40% downpayment in cash (i.e. $42K), and one will still need to fork out $34K cash…

There are still a lot of rich people in Singapore who can afford, but there should be some who find it tough...

[NY1969]

I think if the economy continue to do well, the rich will still be the rich. Hence for big cars premium will still remain relatively high. There will be new car models rolling into the mkt. and continue to attract this rich buyers. Come 1Aug, bmw is going to have its own exhibition, show casing their range of cars. Called Bmw world. Sounds like rich man playground. So unless there is a significant increase in supply of quota, the premiums abv 1600cc will still be high. Agree?

[isetan]

NY1969:

I think if the economy continue to do well, the rich will still be the rich. Hence for big cars premium will still remain relatively high. There will be new car models rolling into the mkt. and continue to attract this rich buyers. Come 1Aug, bmw is going to have its own exhibition, show casing their range of cars. Called Bmw world. Sounds like rich man playground. So unless there is a significant increase in supply of quota, the premiums abv 1600cc will still be high. Agree?

:goodpost:

[atrecord]

NY1969:

I think if the economy continue to do well, the rich will still be the rich. Hence for big cars premium will still remain relatively high. There will be new car models rolling into the mkt. and continue to attract this rich buyers. Come 1Aug, bmw is going to have its own exhibition, show casing their range of cars. Called Bmw world. Sounds like rich man playground. So unless there is a significant increase in supply of quota, the premiums abv 1600cc will still be high. Agree?

Quite true… but it is provided the rich men are keeping all the cars, i.e. collecting cars. If they are changing cars, then in theory, they are giving up the old ones, which will either be scrapped, or go into resale market - which is another monster altogether…

Or govt can tweak the COE system further, to see how to limit any family from owning too many cars… but they had said that this is too difficult to impose.

[whizzard]

Loan curbs will only serve to moderate demand for COEs and will affect those at the margin more than others. It will not choke off demand.


For COE prices to drop significantly, either the govt needs to increase the supply of COE substantially more than the expiring COEs (which wouldn't happen - look at how crowded the roads are these days) or for the economy to hit a downturn.