2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2041182\" time=\"1633531283\" user_id=\"30663:

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041179\" time=\"1633530814\" user_id=\"188234:

Please look at what I wrote again, I am talking IP. 269 t-score is ~1% of entire cohort. IP is ~10% of entire cohort. Hence, > 269 t-score is ~10% of IP. The > 269 t-score or ~10% of IP includes both AL4 and the lopsided scores that were AL5, AL6, etc. Doesn't seem like AL4 is a large composition of the IP students.

1) 269 is 1% of the entire cohort.
May I know how did you derive this figure of 1%.?

2) 10% of the entire IP cohort
May I know how did you derive this figure of 10%.?

3) As I have mentioned, there are many ways to achieve 269 T-score. At best you only have t-scores as reference. Hence how do you know that majority of those who score 269 and above are not AL4?

1) Generally 270 is believed to be ~1% but it varies each year. I can't prove if that's what you mean.

2) The IP cutoffs are around 250 or low 250s which is ~Top 10%. Maybe I should have wrote \"eligible for IP\" although in the original reply I did say \"qualify\" for IP. Of course, some who are eligible decide to stay in O-Level and are not in IP.

3) I don't know how many > 269s are AL4. But even assume all of them are. The ratio / percentage mentioned above isn't that large. Previously, there was very little focus for students to push up a weak subject if they were very strong in two subjects, pretty good in a third. 98-100 math, ~95 science, 90+ English, and an 80s or even high 70s MT wasn't unheard of because these students would have no problem to clear the t-score COP. Or 98+ Math, ~95 Science, and 80s both languages. Talk to people or read old forum pages and there's a lot more of this mentioned than kids that were 90+ across the board.

The question now is how many AL5s, AL6s, and AL7s can improve as they adjust to the new scoring system. As you say, I no longer need to worry about \"losing ground\" to people because I get 90-95 in Math. 90 or 100 is still AL1.

I guess we are quibbling over the difference between \"not uncommon\" and common, often, frequent, meaningful portion, etc. But for reference, MOE use to publish the Median t-score along with the COP and max for those student who entered via S1. In 2019 the Median at RGS was \"only\" 265. While the max extended all the way to 282, any reasonable statistical distribution would probably suggest a lot of the students were between 261 (COP) and 269 (same distance above Median as COP is below Median). Of course, many of the DSA students could have been very high t-score and this isn't accounted for.

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041188\" time=\"1633532712\" user_id=\"188234:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2041182\" time=\"1633531283\" user_id=\"30663:

[quote=SG_KP1 post_id=2041179 time=1633530814 user_id=188234]Please look at what I wrote again, I am talking IP. 269 t-score is ~1% of entire cohort. IP is ~10% of entire cohort. Hence, > 269 t-score is ~10% of IP. The > 269 t-score or ~10% of IP includes both AL4 and the lopsided scores that were AL5, AL6, etc. Doesn't seem like AL4 is a large composition of the IP students.

1) 269 is 1% of the entire cohort.
May I know how did you derive this figure of 1%.?

2) 10% of the entire IP cohort
May I know how did you derive this figure of 10%.?

3) As I have mentioned, there are many ways to achieve 269 T-score. At best you only have t-scores as reference. Hence how do you know that majority of those who score 269 and above are not AL4?

1) Generally 270 is believed to be ~1% but it varies each year. I can't prove if that's what you mean.

2) The IP cutoffs are around 250 or low 250s which is ~Top 10%. Maybe I should have wrote \"eligible for IP\" although in the original reply I did say \"qualify\" for IP. Of course, some who are eligible decide to stay in O-Level and are not in IP.

3) I don't know how many > 269s are AL4. But even assume all of them are. The ratio / percentage mentioned above isn't that large. Previously, there was very little focus for students to push up a weak subject if they were very strong in two subjects, pretty good in a third. 98-100 math, ~95 science, 90+ English, and an 80s or even high 70s MT wasn't unheard of because these students would have no problem to clear the t-score COP. Or 98+ Math, ~95 Science, and 80s both languages. Talk to people or read old forum pages and there's a lot more of this mentioned than kids that were 90+ across the board.

The question now is how many AL5s, AL6s, and AL7s can improve as they adjust to the new scoring system. As you say, I no longer need to worry about \"losing ground\" to people because I get 90-95 in Math. 90 or 100 is still AL1.

I guess we are quibbling over the difference between \"not uncommon\" and common, often, frequent, meaningful portion, etc. But for reference, MOE use to publish the Median t-score along with the COP and max for those student who entered via S1. In 2019 the Median at RGS was \"only\" 265. While the max extended all the way to 282, any reasonable statistical distribution would probably suggest a lot of the students were between 261 (COP) and 269 (same distance above Median as COP is below Median). Of course, many of the DSA students could have been very high t-score and this isn't accounted for.[/quote]I think what we wish to know is what is your basis in believing what you believe so that we can deliberate the credibility of what you said.

I believe most of us here are adults, and we should be able to make our own assessment of what is conjectures and facts.

And what you believe cannot be used as basis because they may not be facts.

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2041190\" time=\"1633533254\" user_id=\"30663:

I think what we wish to know is what is your basis in believing what you believe so that we can deliberate the credibility of what you said.

I believe most of us here are adults, and we should be able to make our own assessment of what is conjectures and facts.

Here's another way to frame it. You believe the lowest AL6 is ~259 t-score, and that the lowest AL4 is ~269 t-score. ESIS is ~261, which many claim is around Top 3%. What % do you think the > 269 t-scores is?

I don't know the IP intake for all 17 schools but roughly I got all of IP is maybe 3,500 students. So we can still bound it.

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041191\" time=\"1633534103\" user_id=\"188234:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2041190\" time=\"1633533254\" user_id=\"30663:

I think what we wish to know is what is your basis in believing what you believe so that we can deliberate the credibility of what you said.

I believe most of us here are adults, and we should be able to make our own assessment of what is conjectures and facts.

Here's another way to frame it. You believe the lowest AL6 is ~259 t-score, and that the lowest AL4 is ~269 t-score. ESIS is ~261, which many claim is around Top 3%. What % do you think the > 269 t-scores is?

I don't know the IP intake for all 17 schools but roughly I got all of IP is maybe 3,500 students. So we can still bound it.

So now you have a new way of framing your thought.

What I can tell you is that don't need to convince yourself believe AL6 COP is approx 259 because it's already statistically proven (unless you believe the MOE is giving false information about indicative AL COP) that AL6 COP is around 259 to 261.

Instead of focusing our discussion on the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools (which you claim is 1%) you are now talking about ESIS.

Before you sort out 1 variable, you are bringing new variables into the equation without providing new facts.

What you are talking about here is that before you can prove what your claim that variable X and Y is true, you are using a new variable z to justify that X and Y is true.

[pearl8]

I think we just forget about all the T-scores. They don’t care about 256, 260 or 270. Now school just looks at your AL scores. No need to think too much. For those who want to get in the top top school, if you got AL5 then you’ve got it. If AL6 above, then maybe just prepare for balloting.

[Pegasus08]

Wish list for MOE is if they can provide the percentage of students per AL band for each school. Then no need to guess or think too much since from there, one can calculate the probability of getting into the school.

[Marina Collection]

I don’t have any statistical evidence. Whatever I’m saying is purely due to personal experience which could well be quite limited . From my observation , 4A* is not very common even for students scoring above >268. Personally , i know of a handful of these students (about 7) n none of them are 4A* scorers . 3A1A seems to be the most common score .


From a casual chat with friends from my cohort (who took the psle more than 30 years ago!) . Amongst those who cleared the 260 level , only 1 scored 4A (T score of 260).

For this current cohort , even though moe already announced the AL system a few years ago when they were in P2, I think some parents are still taking time to adjust to the new system - stuck in old mode as we had elder children under old system . Moving on , AL4 will definitely be more common …

Again, I reiterate that these are my personal feels …

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2041194\" time=\"1633534980\" user_id=\"30663:

So now you have a new way of framing your thought.

What I can tell you is that don't need to convince yourself believe AL6 COP is approx 259 because it's already statistically proven (unless you believe the MOE is giving false information about indicative AL COP) that AL6 COP is around 259 to 261.

Instead of focusing our discussion on the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools (which you claim is 1%) you are now talking about ESIS.

Before you sort out 1 variable, you are bringing new variables into the equation without providing new facts.

What you are talking about here is that before you can prove what your claim that variable X and Y is true, you are using a new variable z to justify that X and Y is true.

Well, lets just see how it shakes out. Wish your kid much luck with the results and posting.

But to clarify, I never said the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools is 1% as you write above. I was only saying that if you believe 90-90-90-90 or the lowest AL4 is a minimum t-score of 269 it doesn't seem like there are tons of AL4s out there because supposedly there is not a large fraction of the cohort scoring above 270 (often mentioned as 1% of entire cohort).

As for the part in bold, it's not quite \"statistically proven.\" What we've all been told is this:

a) 2020 PSLE / S1 Posting T-score COP
RGS = 260
RI = 259
MGS IP(IB) = 258

b) Simulated AL COP using 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms
RGS = AL6
RI = AL6
MGS IP(IB) = AL6

Once again, b) was not derived by taking the raw marks of all students posted to RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in a) and seeing that each of them was AL6 or better. Instead, it was derived by using the raw marks of all non-DSA students, and \"simulating\" a new posting outcome (i.e. an outcome that never happened) based on 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms. All AL4s were posted to a school first, all AL5s were posted next, etc. RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in this simulation were full at AL6, but it wasn't necessarily the same students who were posted to these schools in a). MOE has definitely confirmed this (their reply is in the link below).

I guess everyone can decide for themselves whether they think the above proves all AL6 are 259+.

MOE reply on Indicative AL COPs:
https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=93831&p=2022991#p2022991

Good luck!

[SG_KP1]

Apologies to all if I have clogged up the thread (will drop out from here). Good luck to all those who are waiting on the results.


I do agree with the following though.

pearl8\" post_id=\"2041196\" time=\"1633538826\" user_id=\"171681:

.....
I think we just forget about all the T-scores. They don't care about 256, 260 or 270. Now school just looks at your AL scores.
.....

Marina Collection\" post_id=\"2041199\" time=\"1633555650\" user_id=\"91099:[quote=\"Marina Collection\" post_id=2041199 time=1633555650 user_id=91099]I don’t have any statistical evidence. Whatever I’m saying is purely due to personal experience which could well be quite limited . From my observation , 4A* is not very common even for students scoring above >268. Personally , i know of a handful of these students (about 7) n none of them are 4A* scorers . 3A*1A seems to be the most common score .
.....
For this current cohort , even though moe already announced the AL system a few years ago when they were in P2, I think some parents are still taking time to adjust to the new system - stuck in old mode as we had elder children under old system . Moving on , AL4 will definitely be more common …
.....[/quote]

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041201\" time=\"1633558388\" user_id=\"188234:

Well, lets just see how it shakes out. Wish your kid much luck with the results and posting.

But to clarify, I never said the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools is 1% as you write above. I was only saying that if you believe 90-90-90-90 or the lowest AL4 is a minimum t-score of 269 it doesn't seem like there are tons of AL4s out there because supposedly there is not a large fraction of the cohort scoring above 270 (often mentioned as 1% of entire cohort).

As for the part in bold, it's not quite \"statistically proven.\" What we've all been told is this:

a) 2020 PSLE / S1 Posting T-score COP
RGS = 260
RI = 259
MGS IP(IB) = 258

b) Simulated AL COP using 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms
RGS = AL6
RI = AL6
MGS IP(IB) = AL6

Once again, b) was not derived by taking the raw marks of all students posted to RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in a) and seeing that each of them was AL6 or better. Instead, it was derived by using the raw marks of all non-DSA students, and \"simulating\" a new posting outcome (i.e. an outcome that never happened) based on 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms. All AL4s were posted to a school first, all AL5s were posted next, etc. RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in this simulation were full at AL6, but it wasn't necessarily the same students who were posted to these schools in a). MOE has definitely confirmed this (their reply is in the link below).

I guess everyone can decide for themselves whether they think the above proves all AL6 are 259+.

MOE reply on Indicative AL COPs:
https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=93831&p=2022991#p2022991

Good luck!

My comment is that AL4 students are not uncommon in IP schools because the lowest possible t-score for AL4 is around 269 and MOE has already published that IP schools with AL8 COP (251) and above all have AL4 students among the cohort and I am certain that for schools like RI RGS HCI and NYGH, that percentage of AL4 students will be higher.

And now you are making sound like I am saying there are tons of AL4 in IP schools? May I know what is your definition of TONS? 1000?

AL COP is derived using the last student admission with the lowest PSLE raw scores and its consistent when past years t-score COP, which for RGS/RI/HCI/NYGH case is around 258 to 261. And yes, the lowest possible T-score estimate for AL6 is around 258 to 261 and the highest possible t-score estimate for an AL6 could hit as high as 286 if a student score 100 100 100 84. (which is much higher than the lowest range of AL4 which is around 269)