2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
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Veyron\" post_id=\"2041190\" time=\"1633533254\" user_id=\"30663:
Here's another way to frame it. You believe the lowest AL6 is ~259 t-score, and that the lowest AL4 is ~269 t-score. ESIS is ~261, which many claim is around Top 3%. What % do you think the > 269 t-scores is?
I think what we wish to know is what is your basis in believing what you believe so that we can deliberate the credibility of what you said.
I believe most of us here are adults, and we should be able to make our own assessment of what is conjectures and facts.
I don't know the IP intake for all 17 schools but roughly I got all of IP is maybe 3,500 students. So we can still bound it. -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041191\" time=\"1633534103\" user_id=\"188234:
So now you have a new way of framing your thought.
Here's another way to frame it. You believe the lowest AL6 is ~259 t-score, and that the lowest AL4 is ~269 t-score. ESIS is ~261, which many claim is around Top 3%. What % do you think the > 269 t-scores is?Veyron\" post_id=\"2041190\" time=\"1633533254\" user_id=\"30663:
I think what we wish to know is what is your basis in believing what you believe so that we can deliberate the credibility of what you said.
I believe most of us here are adults, and we should be able to make our own assessment of what is conjectures and facts.
I don't know the IP intake for all 17 schools but roughly I got all of IP is maybe 3,500 students. So we can still bound it.
What I can tell you is that don't need to convince yourself believe AL6 COP is approx 259 because it's already statistically proven (unless you believe the MOE is giving false information about indicative AL COP) that AL6 COP is around 259 to 261.
Instead of focusing our discussion on the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools (which you claim is 1%) you are now talking about ESIS.
Before you sort out 1 variable, you are bringing new variables into the equation without providing new facts.
What you are talking about here is that before you can prove what your claim that variable X and Y is true, you are using a new variable z to justify that X and Y is true. -
I think we just forget about all the T-scores. They don’t care about 256, 260 or 270. Now school just looks at your AL scores. No need to think too much. For those who want to get in the top top school, if you got AL5 then you’ve got it. If AL6 above, then maybe just prepare for balloting.
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Wish list for MOE is if they can provide the percentage of students per AL band for each school. Then no need to guess or think too much since from there, one can calculate the probability of getting into the school.
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I don’t have any statistical evidence. Whatever I’m saying is purely due to personal experience which could well be quite limited . From my observation , 4A* is not very common even for students scoring above >268. Personally , i know of a handful of these students (about 7) n none of them are 4A* scorers . 3A1A seems to be the most common score .
From a casual chat with friends from my cohort (who took the psle more than 30 years ago!) . Amongst those who cleared the 260 level , only 1 scored 4A (T score of 260).
For this current cohort , even though moe already announced the AL system a few years ago when they were in P2, I think some parents are still taking time to adjust to the new system - stuck in old mode as we had elder children under old system . Moving on , AL4 will definitely be more common …
Again, I reiterate that these are my personal feels … -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2041194\" time=\"1633534980\" user_id=\"30663:
Well, lets just see how it shakes out. Wish your kid much luck with the results and posting.
So now you have a new way of framing your thought.
What I can tell you is that don't need to convince yourself believe AL6 COP is approx 259 because it's already statistically proven (unless you believe the MOE is giving false information about indicative AL COP) that AL6 COP is around 259 to 261.
Instead of focusing our discussion on the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools (which you claim is 1%) you are now talking about ESIS.
Before you sort out 1 variable, you are bringing new variables into the equation without providing new facts.
What you are talking about here is that before you can prove what your claim that variable X and Y is true, you are using a new variable z to justify that X and Y is true.
But to clarify, I never said the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools is 1% as you write above. I was only saying that if you believe 90-90-90-90 or the lowest AL4 is a minimum t-score of 269 it doesn't seem like there are tons of AL4s out there because supposedly there is not a large fraction of the cohort scoring above 270 (often mentioned as 1% of entire cohort).
As for the part in bold, it's not quite \"statistically proven.\" What we've all been told is this:
a) 2020 PSLE / S1 Posting T-score COP
RGS = 260
RI = 259
MGS IP(IB) = 258
b) Simulated AL COP using 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms
RGS = AL6
RI = AL6
MGS IP(IB) = AL6
Once again, b) was not derived by taking the raw marks of all students posted to RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in a) and seeing that each of them was AL6 or better. Instead, it was derived by using the raw marks of all non-DSA students, and \"simulating\" a new posting outcome (i.e. an outcome that never happened) based on 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms. All AL4s were posted to a school first, all AL5s were posted next, etc. RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in this simulation were full at AL6, but it wasn't necessarily the same students who were posted to these schools in a). MOE has definitely confirmed this (their reply is in the link below).
I guess everyone can decide for themselves whether they think the above proves all AL6 are 259+.
MOE reply on Indicative AL COPs:
https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=93831&p=2022991#p2022991
Good luck! -
Apologies to all if I have clogged up the thread (will drop out from here). Good luck to all those who are waiting on the results.
I do agree with the following though.pearl8\" post_id=\"2041196\" time=\"1633538826\" user_id=\"171681:
.....
I think we just forget about all the T-scores. They don't care about 256, 260 or 270. Now school just looks at your AL scores.
.....Marina Collection\" post_id=\"2041199\" time=\"1633555650\" user_id=\"91099:[quote=\"Marina Collection\" post_id=2041199 time=1633555650 user_id=91099]I don’t have any statistical evidence. Whatever I’m saying is purely due to personal experience which could well be quite limited . From my observation , 4A* is not very common even for students scoring above >268. Personally , i know of a handful of these students (about 7) n none of them are 4A* scorers . 3A*1A seems to be the most common score .
.....
For this current cohort , even though moe already announced the AL system a few years ago when they were in P2, I think some parents are still taking time to adjust to the new system - stuck in old mode as we had elder children under old system . Moving on , AL4 will definitely be more common …
.....[/quote] -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2041201\" time=\"1633558388\" user_id=\"188234:
My comment is that AL4 students are not uncommon in IP schools because the lowest possible t-score for AL4 is around 269 and MOE has already published that IP schools with AL8 COP (251) and above all have AL4 students among the cohort and I am certain that for schools like RI RGS HCI and NYGH, that percentage of AL4 students will be higher.
Well, lets just see how it shakes out. Wish your kid much luck with the results and posting.
But to clarify, I never said the percentage of AL4 students in IP schools is 1% as you write above. I was only saying that if you believe 90-90-90-90 or the lowest AL4 is a minimum t-score of 269 it doesn't seem like there are tons of AL4s out there because supposedly there is not a large fraction of the cohort scoring above 270 (often mentioned as 1% of entire cohort).
As for the part in bold, it's not quite \"statistically proven.\" What we've all been told is this:
a) 2020 PSLE / S1 Posting T-score COP
RGS = 260
RI = 259
MGS IP(IB) = 258
b) Simulated AL COP using 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms
RGS = AL6
RI = AL6
MGS IP(IB) = AL6
Once again, b) was not derived by taking the raw marks of all students posted to RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in a) and seeing that each of them was AL6 or better. Instead, it was derived by using the raw marks of all non-DSA students, and \"simulating\" a new posting outcome (i.e. an outcome that never happened) based on 2020 raw marks and 2020 S1 Option Forms. All AL4s were posted to a school first, all AL5s were posted next, etc. RGS, RI, and MGS IP(IB) in this simulation were full at AL6, but it wasn't necessarily the same students who were posted to these schools in a). MOE has definitely confirmed this (their reply is in the link below).
I guess everyone can decide for themselves whether they think the above proves all AL6 are 259+.
MOE reply on Indicative AL COPs:
https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=93831&p=2022991#p2022991
Good luck!
And now you are making sound like I am saying there are tons of AL4 in IP schools? May I know what is your definition of TONS? 1000?
AL COP is derived using the last student admission with the lowest PSLE raw scores and its consistent when past years t-score COP, which for RGS/RI/HCI/NYGH case is around 258 to 261. And yes, the lowest possible T-score estimate for AL6 is around 258 to 261 and the highest possible t-score estimate for an AL6 could hit as high as 286 if a student score 100 100 100 84. (which is much higher than the lowest range of AL4 which is around 269) -
Pegasus08\" post_id=\"2041197\" time=\"1633541170\" user_id=\"41264:
Ah, but you are forgetting this is the first year they are doing this
Wish list for MOE is if they can provide the percentage of students per AL band for each school. Then no need to guess or think too much since from there, one can calculate the probability of getting into the school.
Only simulated data. No real data.
In any case, even if the data exist, do you think MOE will release it? No... all schools are good schools... so no need to compare
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BTW, things are getting a bit heated up with highly scientific discussion over t-scores and AL scores. I don’t really follow what is happening, but you should all enjoy the end of this psle along with the children. After all, how often do kids really have a month to really relax?
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