2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
-
lassie girl\" post_id=\"2048486\" time=\"1637859049\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2048486 time=1637859049 user_id=35383]
Thanks so much for the explanation, it clarifies a lot. I always thought (wrongly) that the indicative 2020 PSLE score range published by MOE was based on the scores of the actual 1st and last student admitted to the school, I didn't know that they were simulated. So this means that e.g. RI AL 4-6 was a simulated COP range and not the actual 2020 COP based on t-score.
Replying to this post because my cow baby has gone to bed and I couldn’t find anything else to do tonight. For the benefit of other anxious parents who are still not so sure of how the indicative AL scores came about - here’s a recap: https://www.moe.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/press/2021/annex-d-psle-2021.pdf?la=en&hash=D9545EF210071D1E7F0B220D7C85F20C73CB8DB4
Pasting here for easy reference.
The indicative PSLE Score ranges for the individual schools were simulated using the 2020 P6 cohort’s PSLE results and school choices.
• MOE first simulated each student’s individual subject score in AL terms, based on their raw subject scores.
• Then, we added the AL scores for each PSLE subject to form a student’s total PSLE Score.
Using these simulated PSLE Scores and students’ school choices from 2020,
• MOE simulated their posting outcomes based on the new S1 Posting System and its tie-breakers (in the order of Citizenship, Choice order of Schools and
Computerised Balloting).
• The indicative PSLE Score ranges for individual secondary schools were then
generated based on the PSLE Scores of the first student and the last student who WOULD HAVE POSTED into the school UNDER THE SIMULATION.
As the 2020 PSLE cohort had their results in T-score terms, the PSLE Score ranges are indicative only, as they were simulated using the 2020 PSLE cohort results and students’ school choices in that same year.
The actual PSLE Score range for a school for a particular year is not pre-determined, and may vary from year to year, depending on the PSLE results and school choice patterns of each P6 cohort.
In short, it means students “admitted” based on the simulation may not be the actual students who went to the schools (ie sec 1 in 2021). It means the last student/students admitted to RGS (sec 1 2021) with actual t score cut off 261 may not be the same last student/students who got “admitted” with AL6 in their simulation. Same goes for all the other schools. Basically MOE did a “what if we sort them out this way” exercise. Thus all the assumptions of certain t score = certain AL are definitely not accurate.
Even if someone claims to have the correct formula for t score = AL conversion, we can never know who and how many did well or worst this year so all kinds of analysis are just meant to keep poor parents awake at night wondering which choices to put for their child’s future school, with no actual help. On top of that, we can never know what’s the choice ranking patterns this year’s cohort will make.
I do hope parents are discerning enough to make judgements for themselves and their children especially during this tight timeframe for the schools selections. We are here to help each other so let’s not have the blind leading the blind and take everyone on a wild goose chase.
Parents, have a good night rest. Most importantly, talk to your children about the schools and their thoughts on this exercise. These communications will help set the stage for your child’s transition into secondary school life, with u as their guiding light.[/quote]
However, since students in 2020 selected schools based on merit only, and not choice order, the simulation could not take into account students who might have altered their choices due to fear of being balloted out.
Take RI (AL 4-6) as example. If we are still using a posting system that considers only merit and not choice order, then students with AL6 and AL7 (and perhaps even the more gung-ho AL8's) who really like RI might choose RI as 1st choice (since choice order doesn't matter). Hence \"demand\" for RI under this hypothetical posting system would be higher and there will possibly be more balloting. The AL 4-6 for RI was simulated for the 2020 cohort who made school choices considering only merit and not choice order.
This year, since choice order matters, I suspect that the majority of AL7 and a fraction of AL6 with low-risk appetite would avoid placing RI as 1st choice, and select other \"safer\" options. What if, due to this seemingly \"reduced demand\", the actual COP for RI becomes AL 4-7, can the AL6 who did not choose RI earlier (and posted to another school) now appeal to RI when RI was not one of their earlier 6 choices? If yes, would RI be able to take in all the AL6's who appeal?
Just wondering... -
Regarding appeals:
I am currently watching ACSBr Zoom webinar for affiliated parents/students.
Principal mentioned, first must meet the COP.
But if no vacancy, P has no power to squeeze out another seat for the appeal case(s). MOE does NOT allow. He just wanted to say that it always happens every year but he cannot override MOE’s rules.
So any stories that you hear of successful appeals (any school) would be because of the “musical chairs” effect. Somebody gives up a seat somewhere and the vacancy arises, and then all the schools will have vacancy free-ing up in turn… -
JGMum\" post_id=\"2048589\" time=\"1637898558\" user_id=\"2001:
Bingo!
Thanks so much for the explanation, it clarifies a lot. I always thought (wrongly) that the indicative 2020 PSLE score range published by MOE was based on the scores of the actual 1st and last student admitted to the school, I didn't know that they were simulated. So this means that e.g. RI AL 4-6 was a simulated COP range and not the actual 2020 COP based on t-score.lassie girl\" post_id=\"2048486\" time=\"1637859049\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2048486 time=1637859049 user_id=35383]
Replying to this post because my cow baby has gone to bed and I couldn’t find anything else to do tonight. For the benefit of other anxious parents who are still not so sure of how the indicative AL scores came about - here’s a recap: https://www.moe.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/press/2021/annex-d-psle-2021.pdf?la=en&hash=D9545EF210071D1E7F0B220D7C85F20C73CB8DB4
Pasting here for easy reference.
The indicative PSLE Score ranges for the individual schools were simulated using the 2020 P6 cohort’s PSLE results and school choices.
• MOE first simulated each student’s individual subject score in AL terms, based on their raw subject scores.
• Then, we added the AL scores for each PSLE subject to form a student’s total PSLE Score.
Using these simulated PSLE Scores and students’ school choices from 2020,
• MOE simulated their posting outcomes based on the new S1 Posting System and its tie-breakers (in the order of Citizenship, Choice order of Schools and
Computerised Balloting).
• The indicative PSLE Score ranges for individual secondary schools were then
generated based on the PSLE Scores of the first student and the last student who WOULD HAVE POSTED into the school UNDER THE SIMULATION.
As the 2020 PSLE cohort had their results in T-score terms, the PSLE Score ranges are indicative only, as they were simulated using the 2020 PSLE cohort results and students’ school choices in that same year.
The actual PSLE Score range for a school for a particular year is not pre-determined, and may vary from year to year, depending on the PSLE results and school choice patterns of each P6 cohort.
In short, it means students “admitted” based on the simulation may not be the actual students who went to the schools (ie sec 1 in 2021). It means the last student/students admitted to RGS (sec 1 2021) with actual t score cut off 261 may not be the same last student/students who got “admitted” with AL6 in their simulation. Same goes for all the other schools. Basically MOE did a “what if we sort them out this way” exercise. Thus all the assumptions of certain t score = certain AL are definitely not accurate.
Even if someone claims to have the correct formula for t score = AL conversion, we can never know who and how many did well or worst this year so all kinds of analysis are just meant to keep poor parents awake at night wondering which choices to put for their child’s future school, with no actual help. On top of that, we can never know what’s the choice ranking patterns this year’s cohort will make.
I do hope parents are discerning enough to make judgements for themselves and their children especially during this tight timeframe for the schools selections. We are here to help each other so let’s not have the blind leading the blind and take everyone on a wild goose chase.
Parents, have a good night rest. Most importantly, talk to your children about the schools and their thoughts on this exercise. These communications will help set the stage for your child’s transition into secondary school life, with u as their guiding light.
However, since students in 2020 selected schools based on merit only, and not choice order, the simulation could not take into account students who might have altered their choices due to fear of being balloted out.
Take RI (AL 4-6) as example. If we are still using a posting system that considers only merit and not choice order, then students with AL6 and AL7 (and perhaps even the more gung-ho AL8's) who really like RI might choose RI as 1st choice (since choice order doesn't matter). Hence \"demand\" for RI under this hypothetical posting system would be higher and there will possibly be more balloting. The AL 4-6 for RI was simulated for the 2020 cohort who made school choices considering only merit and not choice order.
This year, since choice order matters, I suspect that the majority of AL7 and a fraction of AL6 with low-risk appetite would avoid placing RI as 1st choice, and select other \"safer\" options. What if, due to this seemingly \"reduced demand\", the actual COP for RI becomes AL 4-7, can the AL6 who did not choose RI earlier (and posted to another school) now appeal to RI when RI was not one of their earlier 6 choices? If yes, would RI be able to take in all the AL6's who appeal?
Just wondering...[/quote]
That’s why I said - Parents, please choose wisely and judge for yourself if anyone has a special agenda for propagating certain AL=certain t score fallacy. Not sure what are the rules and procedures for appeal after the posting results are out (eg whether the school needs to be one of your choices or not). I guess we will only have more clarity after other parents who went through the process this year share their experiences for future AL cohorts. -
Pegasus08\" post_id=\"2048528\" time=\"1637888978\" user_id=\"41264:
Hi Pegasus08, would you mind if I port the conversation over to the https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=52179&start=22570 thread? Thanks...
-
If ESIS is not by raw score and all AL5 and better will get it, how then can it be top 3%. Unless the no. Of AL5 and better falls so nicely to be the top 3%. Then, moving forward whatever no. (Top 3%) that meets that particular year’s ESIS cut off would have to fall nicely within that cutoff AL. Hence I wonder if MOE takes the top 3% of raw score and not based on AL.
-
JGMum\" post_id=\"2048589\" time=\"1637898558\" user_id=\"2001:
MOE has gone through some revisions on their FAQ.Thanks so much for the explanation, it clarifies a lot. I always thought (wrongly) that the indicative 2020 PSLE score range published by MOE was based on the scores of the actual 1st and last student admitted to the school, I didn't know that they were simulated. So this means that e.g. RI AL 4-6 was a simulated COP range and not the actual 2020 COP based on t-score.
However, since students in 2020 selected schools based on merit only, and not choice order, the simulation could not take into account students who might have altered their choices due to fear of being balloted out.
Take RI (AL 4-6) as example. If we are still using a posting system that considers only merit and not choice order, then students with AL6 and AL7 (and perhaps even the more gung-ho AL8's) who really like RI might choose RI as 1st choice (since choice order doesn't matter). Hence \"demand\" for RI under this hypothetical posting system would be higher and there will possibly be more balloting. The AL 4-6 for RI was simulated for the 2020 cohort who made school choices considering only merit and not choice order.
This year, since choice order matters, I suspect that the majority of AL7 and a fraction of AL6 with low-risk appetite would avoid placing RI as 1st choice, and select other \"safer\" options. What if, due to this seemingly \"reduced demand\", the actual COP for RI becomes AL 4-7, can the AL6 who did not choose RI earlier (and posted to another school) now appeal to RI when RI was not one of their earlier 6 choices? If yes, would RI be able to take in all the AL6's who appeal?
Just wondering...
Under Annex B
Using these simulated PSLE Scores and students’ school choices from 2019,
• We simulated their posting outcomes based on the new S1 Posting System and
its tie-breakers.
• Thereafter, the indicative AL COP for each school was determined by the PSLE
score of the last student admitted.
Finally, based on the score of the last student admitted, we took the lowest and the
highest indicative AL COPs of schools within each school type (Government and
Government-aided Schools, Autonomous Schools and Independent Schools) to
obtain the range of indicative AL COPs.
https://www.moe.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/press/2020/annex-a-further-updates-to-psle-2021.pdf?
la=en&hash=418189C8FA6CF3830CE7D8AD57720469B3F06F11
Hence its not wrong to say that AL COP is predominantly based on actual first and last student, and of course there may be some possibility of otherwise. e.g. a 257 score student rejected by RI under t-score could have gained entry under AL system because he is AL6. And the existence of such case is small and will not affect the overall statistics
2020 COP for RI was 259, or indicative COP AL6.
Under t-score s1 posting, students with 257 will unlikely to have wasted their 1st choice on RI because historically RI COP is always around 258/259. However, under the current AL system, a 257 score could now consider RI because 257 maybe AL6 (e.g. 2020 MGS 257 = AL6)
For this reason, I am expecting the pool of students vying for RI will be bigger than 2020 simply because AL system has somewhat lowered the t-score equivalent standard by around 2.
So for AL7 students vying for RI, better make a wise decision on your 2nd choice -
JGmum, u raised a good point that last year’s decision-making did not consider school choice ranking. Big question is how significant will this be to deter parents/students from applying, in your scenario RI?
My opinion,
If get AL6, just go for it. Nobody can calculate the probability now (least of all by people correlating AL and COP using random multipliers). Perhaps just 10% chance or 80%? Only god knows. Most importantly, be very ready to accept choice 2 or 3 (>AL6).
Think about it, if this is a school ur kid really desires and u let go the opportunity, how’s everyone gonna feel when ur neighbour/ friend who got AL6 gets accepted? -
chervin\" post_id=\"2048597\" time=\"1637900296\" user_id=\"8802:
Is there any AL5 students who didnt receive ESIS?
If ESIS is not by raw score and all AL5 and better will get it, how then can it be top 3%. Unless the no. Of AL5 and better falls so nicely to be the top 3%. Then, moving forward whatever no. (Top 3%) that meets that particular year’s ESIS cut off would have to fall nicely within that cutoff AL. Hence I wonder if MOE takes the top 3% of raw score and not based on AL.
Is there an AL6 student who receive ESIS?
If the answer above is No and No, then we can say that ESIS COP will be determined by AL and not combined raw score.
Will that be top 3%? I think so because mini score for AL5 is 90 90 90 85 which is around t-score 261. And of course, it will not be top 3.00000% just like under t-score, it cannot be 3.0000% -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048464\" time=\"1637854774\" user_id=\"30663:
your 3/4 raw to tscore conversion is incorrect[/quote]Can you share the source of data that al8 can be as low as 247? Also pls share the correct calculation method, thanksokie\" post_id=\"2048462\" time=\"1637854383\" user_id=\"44307:
[quote=Veyron post_id=2048400 time=1637847975 user_id=30663]
NJC COP for 2020 was 254 or AL7. Under AL system, AL8 can go as low as 247 if there is an AL5 subject in the mix.
Very low chance for NJC partly also due to its centralized location.
In the west, better choose RVHS
Just wondering, how do u know AL8 can be as low as 247? The lowest permutation i can get is 251 (65 + 90 + 90 + 90 )/4*3 -
okie\" post_id=\"2048603\" time=\"1637902256\" user_id=\"44307:
Can you share the source of data that al8 can be as low as 247? Also pls share the correct calculation method, thanks[/quote]Lowest possible raw score for AL8 is AL 1 1 1 5 ( 90+90+90+65) = 335
your 3/4 raw to tscore conversion is incorrectVeyron\" post_id=\"2048464\" time=\"1637854774\" user_id=\"30663:
[quote=okie post_id=2048462 time=1637854383 user_id=44307]
Just wondering, how do u know AL8 can be as low as 247? The lowest permutation i can get is 251 (65 + 90 + 90 + 90 )/4*3
If we translate that to 2020 t-score it will be around 246.4
The reason why its so low is because AL5 cover a wider score band of 65 to 74.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login
Online Users
Statistics
Popular Topics