2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
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Veyron\" post_id=\"2048876\" time=\"1637975197\" user_id=\"30663:
Let's examine this statement: AL 1 + 1 + 1 + 6 = AL9. (approx >231)
Not exactly, Under AL system, 45 is now equal to 64, because AL6 covers 45 to 64. If a student score 45, he or she is as good as 64 for that subject.m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048872\" time=\"1637974449\" user_id=\"18745:
The increase for S1 posting express should be from decreasing C from 50 to 45 at AL6
So if we talk about AL18 or better, I think there will be little changed only.
If we talk about AL19-22, there may be bigger fluctuation.
As long as it is possible to include a AL6 subject within the AL COP, that possibility cannot be excluded.
e.g. at the top, its now possible to score AL9 with AL 1 + 1 + 1 + 6 = AL9. (approx >231)
if we move further down at AL14 COP, its now possible to have 2 AL6 subjects, e.g. AL6 + 6 + 1 + 1 (approx >198)
As we are dealing with a cohort size of around 39,500 students, any sort of permutation is highly possible, perhaps not so much to the extreme.
You are assuming the subject mean score is the same every year, although MOE tries very hard to set their papers so to fit the scores into a natural bell curve, mean score across different years may be close but can't be the same. If you look at the examples in the link below, t-scores can swing violently on different subject mean score. So it is totally pointless to correlate the two. (ref: https://mothership.sg/2018/10/how-to-calculate-psle-t-score-aggregate/)
But how likely is someone who scores 90 on every subject scores 45 on the last? What's the statistical confidence level? If say this paper is very hard and the national average swings violently (extreme case as unlikely as the 90, 90, 90, 0 scenario). Then 45 marks on this subject may not yield a very low t-score. -
Pegasus08\" post_id=\"2048839\" time=\"1637942354\" user_id=\"41264:
I personally like both Crescent and TKGS. i would skip Nan Chiau, but that is just me. With this sequence, I think if she doesnt get into Cedar, she will get in CCHM, so whatever below is useless. So she needs to think very hard if cchm is ok.
My girl got 10(M) and she is thinking of
1) Cedar Girls O level (4 to 9)
2) Chung Cheng main (6M to 11M)
3) Nan Chiau (4M to 11M)
4) Crescent girls (6 to 12) 11
5) TKGS (5 to 13)
6) Anglican (5D to 12P)
Any views if crescent girls or TKGS is better in terms of studying environment, teachers etc? Thank you in advance. -
radiant00 wrote: ↑
Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:20 am
LuckyM wrote: ↑
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:51 am
My son scored AL 5 .We are confused between IP A level and IB programs.Whether to choose RI or ACS(I)
All top students will definitely choose RI , I am worried how he will cope up in the competitive environment.He is from the neighbourhood school. I feel ACS(I) less competitive environment(may be i am wrong)
Please guide
I can't say I really understand the difference between IP and IB (former is UK style and latter US style) program but I don't think you should worry too much whether your son is able to cope in ANY top tier schools. My boy was admitted into RI last year from a very mediocre neighbourhood primary school (ranked 100+ if you believe in such ranking list) and he is doing well there. Teachers are caring and helpful and his friends there, unlike a lot of hearsays, are just a bunch of \"silly\" boys exactly like my son
I believe ACS is same.
So no worries, let your son make his decision and go with his heart.
I think ACS (I) IB program can be as competitive as RI. Not sure if it is true, from what I was told, students who choose IB route generally will end up pursuing further studies in US, some may not even complete the full 6 years of the IP program.
Thank you -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048879\" time=\"1637976265\" user_id=\"30663:
The increase in 240 in 2021 is probably due to widening of score band from 50 to 45, it doesn't affect the top.
Interesting stats.soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048875\" time=\"1637974967\" user_id=\"56690:
Someone in another thread calculated the absolute number qualified for express is about the same as last year. Higher percentage is actually due to smaller cohort size in 2021:
2019 = 40,256 x 66.3% = 26,690
2020 = 39,995 x 66.3% = 26,517
2021 = 39,119 x 68.4% = 26,757
1) Number of students going into express in 2021 actually higher than the 2019 cohort.
2) There is an increase of 240 students for 2021 over 2020.
If supply (vacancy) remains constant, any increase or decrease in demand, will naturally lead to changes in COP.
In 2020, there was a slight drop in COP for the top IP schools and this could be due to smaller express cohort size.
If the same principle is being applied to 2021, an increase in express stream cohort size should naturally also push up the overall COP for 2021 S1 posting.
In 2022 and 2023 PSLE, the cohort size will drop further to ~37,000 (see https://www.moe.gov.sg/about-us/publications/education-statistics-digest), but MOE will allocate cohort size to each sch based on overall cohort size. -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.
Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2048837\" time=\"1637941150\" user_id=\"3:
[quote=Veyron post_id=2048818 time=1637938291 user_id=30663]NYGH COP for 2020 was 261 AL7(M), which is why I have indicated its 259+2
Why 259 is not AL6? That is just that because AL7 score range can be as high as 275 if AL1 subject are in the high 90s.
Will that all change for 2021? That is highlight possible because a 257 AL6 is now rank ahead of 259+2
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.[/quote]Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score. -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048876\" time=\"1637975197\" user_id=\"30663:
If 1 + 1 + 1 + 5 = 8 with B now is increase from 60 to 65 at AL5 + no more exempted MT kids can get AL8 or better
Not exactly, Under AL system, 45 is now equal to 64, because AL6 covers 45 to 64. If a student score 45, he or she is as good as 64 for that subject.m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048872\" time=\"1637974449\" user_id=\"18745:
The increase for S1 posting express should be from decreasing C from 50 to 45 at AL6
So if we talk about AL18 or better, I think there will be little changed only.
If we talk about AL19-22, there may be bigger fluctuation.
As long as it is possible to include a AL6 subject within the AL COP, that possibility cannot be excluded.
e.g. at the top, its now possible to score AL9 with AL 1 + 1 + 1 + 6 = AL9. (approx >231)
if we move further down at AL14 COP, its now possible to have 2 AL6 subjects, e.g. AL6 + 6 + 1 + 1 (approx >198)
As we are dealing with a cohort size of around 39,500 students, any sort of permutation is highly possible, perhaps not so much to the extreme.
So we can say the number of kids with AL8 or better decreases
The number of kids with AL21-22, who definitely have at least 1AL6 increases -
soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:
[quote=ChiefKiasu post_id=2048837 time=1637941150 user_id=3]
Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.[/quote]If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..) -
SpongyBobs\" post_id=\"2048896\" time=\"1637978529\" user_id=\"196018:
If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
[quote=Veyron post_id=2048868 time=1637972828 user_id=30663]
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..)[/quote]Ok thanks for the explanation, so the premise is again on possibility of outlier cases (22x and 23x) fitting into AL11 band. But the reverse can be true too, 24x and 25x fit into AL12 and AL13 bands (random numbers on reverse logic, no math involved here). So it's a complete toss-up. -
m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048890\" time=\"1637977866\" user_id=\"18745:
I don't think the change from B's lower bound to AL5's lower bound has any bearing on the (loose) mapping of the different scores. The letter grade in t-score was just for show; by itself it did not impact the actual subject t-score. You are correct that removing the MT exemption knocks some kids out of AL8 or better. However, I assume MOE already accounted for this when they converted 2020 PSLE raw marks to AL Terms, and thus removal of the exemption is already factored in to the Indictive AL COPs (notwithstanding all of the other problems/uncertainties associated with this). I.e. if the student did not take MT, it would have made a lot more sense to assign AL6-AL8 for MT instead of translating the \"derived MT score\" (which appears to have been based on one's EMS scores and the MT score of similar students) to AL terms (which likely would have been at least AL5 or better). If so (assign AL6-AL8), the question then is whether there are more AL8s or better this year from what MOE already gave us (as in last year). Still, I acknowledge that how the MT Exemption was dealt with in the simulation is not entirely clear from everything I've seen.
If 1 + 1 + 1 + 5 = 8 with B now is increase from 60 to 65 at AL5 + no more exempted MT kids can get AL8 or better
So we can say the number of kids with AL8 or better decreases
The number of kids with AL21-22, who definitely have at least 1AL6 increases -
soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048897\" time=\"1637978852\" user_id=\"56690:
Ok thanks for the explanation, so the premise is again on possibility of outlier cases (22x and 23x) fitting into AL11 band. But the reverse can be true too, 24x and 25x fit into AL12 and AL13 bands (random numbers on reverse logic, no math involved here). So it's a complete toss-up.[/quote]Correct to say that.
If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:SpongyBobs\" post_id=\"2048896\" time=\"1637978529\" user_id=\"196018:
[quote=soloestoy post_id=2048889 time=1637977710 user_id=56690]
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..)
We do not have enough data on hand to formulate different hypothesis and analyse. Plus a lot of things is not within our control (demand and supply).
We just follow MOE’s estimates and select the 6 choices with care. AL8 is top 10%, use it as the basis. This is more accurate than all the pseudo-analysis
1st choice can be child’s dream school (even if 1 point difference from the simulated COP)
2nd to 4th choice select schools with child’s COP.
5th and 6th choices use as safety nets.
That’s it. No need to over analyze else one risks being paralyzed by over-analysis.
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