2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[lassie girl]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2050096\" time=\"1638320549\" user_id=\"56690:

I think no point arguing with the strong believer of t-score and AL correlation, any other sane person would have rest their case if there are so many people speaking up against them, unless one is deriving strong (and strange) pleasure from it. So you are only feeding into that strange pleasure by continuing. Only step in if there are unknowing parties who appear to be have been misled.

Totally agree.

Not correcting a misconception doesn’t mean the strong believer is right. It simply means we decided to stop trying. Parents please make your own judgement and be guided accordingly.

:boogie:

[SpongyBobs]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2050106\" time=\"1638321132\" user_id=\"56690:

Not all of the 3% eligible for ESIS choose to go independent schools.

You are right. It makes sense if you think like that..

[Liew Nga Wing]

Frankly speaking, I am quite disappointed with this morning discussion.


Despite my advices last night, my findings are :

1. Parents are still insist that the other parties is "not correct and their believe is a misconception"
2. No Stepping Stone or "Face" are given to each others.
3. Some wordings are even involved some degree of "Personal Attacks"
4. An original 2 persons fight become multi parties fight.

As our kids will learn and follow how their parents deal with people and tackle disputes with other.
Cannot imagine how they can operate with their future colleagues. Sigh.

[radiant00]

I am surprised to see this topic turned to a brawl of "who is right". In my honest opinion, there is not right or wrong - S1 registration is a process involving supply and demand - and students/parents’ perceptions towards the process will change the process itself.

I see no point arguing further and every piece of past information can only be "indicative", and that’s why each student is given 6 choices. Use them wisely and every student shall have a relatively matching school to go.

The only thing that I believe is certain to happen - there will be some parents/students (although in small percentage) who will get disappointed at being balloted out of their dream school. However if we keep our mind open and don’t hang on one tree, the life will be much easier. An AL6 student who doesn’t manager to get into big4 but instead enters DHS, CHS is equally successful.

Cheers up lads.

[ChiefKiasu]

Much as I hate doing this, I will have to close this thread as it is getting too contentious. Anyway, the decision on what to do for S1 registration is over until December 22-24 and we'll reopen this thread then.


Thank you.

[SG_KP1]

putien\" post_id=\"2049540\" time=\"1638153852\" user_id=\"29927:

The poll results: https://share.getcloudapp.com/nOu54yPN
NOTE:
This is just a poll, in other words, GIGO.
Only MOE has the distribution of PSLE AL scores.
The following figures are used:
68.4% for the Express course: AL4-20
18.9% for the Normal (Academic): AL21-24 where AL21-22 has the option to choose Express / N(A).
and 11.1% for the Normal (Technical): AL25-30 where AL25 has the option to choose N(A) / N(T).
Assumption: AL8 is the top 10%

Noted on the GIGO, but here is one other way to interpret the data.

#1. Of the students scoring AL4-AL8, 33.4% of them scored AL4 or AL5. % of AL4-AL8 Responses:
AL4 = 17%
AL5 = 16%
AL6 = 24%
AL7 = 21%
AL8 = 22%

#2. If we assume the AL8 or better is the Top 10%, this puts AL5 or better at the Top 3.34%. Thoughts about this:

a) The KSP pool certainly has a response bias to it with more responses to the right hand side of the distribution. But do we believe the KSP pool is significantly more biased than the general pool of students/parents that score AL4-AL8? Of course we don't know but I'm not sure the bias here would be large (i.e. we've corrected much of the bias by rebasing the % to only consider those who scored AL8 or better).

b) The distribution is surprisingly uniform. I don't want to ignite the whole t-score to AL debate but I think as you went from 250-259, 260-269, 270-279, etc the percentage of cohort kept getting significantly smaller (which makes sense in the context of most statistical distributions).

c) I would propose that the \"uniform\" like distribution of AL4-AL8 scores above is either due to i) KSP still has response bias to those scoring AL4-AL5 or ii) students responded to the new scoring system and tried to get more AL1s or AL2s for each subject or specifically tried to pull up their weaker subject(s). Like many things, it could be a mix of both.

#3. What does all of this mean?

a) First, let's remember the data could all be rubbish and not worth a darn (people lying, significantly biased).
b) Second, everything depends on AL8 = Top 10%. As this moves, so will the implied percentages of total cohort.
c) There are many changes this year beyond what's discussed here. MTL exemption, choice patters on S1 option forms, others schools becoming more popular, etc

#4. I am not saying RGS is the \"Top\" or \"Best\" School but let's just look at it for a few moments since it seemed to get everyone fired up.

a) RGS COP is usually very close to ESIS. For the last three years I have:
2020 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 260
2019 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 261
2018 PSLE: ESIS = 260, RGS = 259

b) I don't care what AL 259-261 is. But what 2019 says to me is that among the students who scored ESIS threshold or higher (1,200 or so?), enough of them selected one particular school to fill it up (i.e. of this group there was demand for ~280 seats at RGS).

c) I know there are plenty of other great schools that attract high scoring girls, and it may not seem like it is possible for there to be enough AL5s for one school to have its COP at AL5.

But what has to happen for RGS to be AL5 COP? It just needs to match ESIS like it did in 2019 :yikes:

This is why I've mentioned earlier it would be very important to know exactly how many people or what % of the cohort ESIS or AL4-AL5 covers (could be noticeably lower or higher than it was in the past due to the wider AL bands) and whether this is larger or smaller than the historical figure (under t-score). People mention 3% before (I don't know if this is precisely correct or not) vs. our rebased survey implying 3.34% :yikes: :yikes:

Is RGS going to ballot at AL5? I don't know but it isn't so obvious to me that it can't or won't in one of the coming years.

Any constructive comments are welcome.

[SpongyBobs]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2050237\" time=\"1638371651\" user_id=\"188234:

Noted on the GIGO, but here is one other way to interpret the data.

#1. Of the students scoring AL4-AL8, 33.4% of them scored AL4 or AL5. % of AL4-AL8 Responses:
AL4 = 17%
AL5 = 16%
AL6 = 24%
AL7 = 21%
AL8 = 22%

#2. If we assume the AL8 or better is the Top 10%, this puts AL5 or better at the Top 3.34%. Thoughts about this:

a) The KSP pool certainly has a response bias to it with more responses to the right hand side of the distribution. But do we believe the KSP pool is significantly more biased than the general pool of students/parents that score AL4-AL8? Of course we don't know but I'm not sure the bias here would be large (i.e. we've corrected much of the bias by rebasing the % to only consider those who scored AL8 or better).

b) The distribution is surprisingly uniform. I don't want to ignite the whole t-score to AL debate but I think as you went from 250-259, 260-269, 270-279, etc the percentage of cohort kept getting significantly smaller (which makes sense in the context of most statistical distributions).

c) I would propose that the \"uniform\" like distribution of AL4-AL8 scores above is either due to i) KSP still has response bias to those scoring AL4-AL5 or ii) students responded to the new scoring system and tried to get more AL1s or AL2s for each subject or specifically tried to pull up their weaker subject(s). Like many things, it could be a mix of both.

#3. What does all of this mean?

a) First, let's remember the data could all be rubbish and not worth a darn (people lying, significantly biased).
b) Second, everything depends on AL8 = Top 10%. As this moves, so will the implied percentages of total cohort.
c) There are many changes this year beyond what's discussed here. MTL exemption, choice patters on S1 option forms, others schools becoming more popular, etc

#4. I am not saying RGS is the \"Top\" or \"Best\" School but let's just look at it for a few moments since it seemed to get everyone fired up.

a) RGS COP is usually very close to ESIS. For the last three years I have:
2020 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 260
2019 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 261
2018 PSLE: ESIS = 260, RGS = 259

b) I don't care what AL 259-261 is. But what 2019 says to me is that among the students who scored ESIS threshold or higher (1,200 or so?), enough of them selected one particular school to fill it up (i.e. of this group there was demand for ~280 seats at RGS).

c) I know there are plenty of other great schools that attract high scoring girls, and it may not seem like it is possible for there to be enough AL5s for one school to have its COP at AL5.

But what has to happen for RGS to be AL5 COP? It just needs to match ESIS like it did in 2019 :yikes:

This is why I've mentioned earlier it would be very important to know exactly how many people or what % of the cohort ESIS or AL4-AL5 covers (could be noticeably lower or higher than it was in the past due to the wider AL bands) and whether this is larger or smaller than the historical figure (under t-score). People mention 3% before (I don't know if this is precisely correct or not) vs. our rebased survey implying 3.34% :yikes: :yikes:

Is RGS going to ballot at AL5? I don't know but it isn't so obvious to me that it can't or won't in one of the coming years.

Any constructive comments are welcome.

Interesting analysis. :goodpost: I thought about it before. This is what I thought, but conclusion is the same as yours:
* Assuming ESIS threshold = 3% → 1200 or so students
* Assuming girls : boys ratio = 55 : 45 (girls tend to do better, and from MOE simulation last year RGS, MGS, NYGH had slightly higher COP then RI, ACSI, HCI) → 660 girls
* Assume out of 660, 20% would have been posted by DSA (random number here, since I do not have data), that left 528 girls vying for S1 posting.
* Let's say we have 280 vacancies at RGS

From there, it would have been possible mathematically that we will see ballot at ESIS threshold (like you said , 2019 scenario). For this to happen:
* Large % of the girls need to put RGS as their first choice (280/528 ≈ 53%), about more than 53% of them have to do so. I don't know the impact towards other schools if this were to happen (will COP of NYGH, MGS, SNGS swing towards AL7?). Have the feeling that MGS has even higher chance to see balloting at AL5, given limited intake and the allure of IB.

If we look into students profiling based on sentiments from the ground:
* Portion of foreign students achieving AL4 - AL5 are mainly Chinese. For these students, maybe they will lean towards NYGH than RGS? Or, at least, if their choice order is RGS, NYGH, ..., I don't think they will resent to be posted to NYGH.
* The pressure will be on the non-chinese students, the high achieving Indian students, since they are most likely RGS, MGS, NJC, ? I don't see much options for them.

Unfortunately, when MOE announced AL system were to relieve pressure of PSLE students, for not chasing the last points, it is now true only for 91 - 100. The 86 to 89 (4-5 points) are now extremely important, and one can always argue that it causes even more stress.

Maybe independent schools should be allowed to conduct their own entrance tests or interview, decoupling them entirely from PSLE, like NUSH SIE. Maybe entire cohort stress level can now lower. But again, ones can again argue that, why should we let our kids sit for PSLE? :roll:

[phinehas]

skii\" post_id=\"2047640\" time=\"1637715706\" user_id=\"82603:

Need 4D, 4M and 4P?

By the way,what mean for D M and P?

[manorway]

Distinction, Merit and Pass for HMT

[lee_yl]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2050237\" time=\"1638371651\" user_id=\"188234:

a) RGS COP is usually very close to ESIS. For the last three years I have:
2020 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 260
2019 PSLE: ESIS = 261, RGS = 261
2018 PSLE: ESIS = 260, RGS = 259

b) I don't care what AL 259-261 is. But what 2019 says to me is that among the students who scored ESIS threshold or higher (1,200 or so?), enough of them selected one particular school to fill it up (i.e. of this group there was demand for ~280 seats at RGS).

c) I know there are plenty of other great schools that attract high scoring girls, and it may not seem like it is possible for there to be enough AL5s for one school to have its COP at AL5.

But what has to happen for RGS to be AL5 COP? It just needs to match ESIS like it did in 2019 :yikes:

This is why I've mentioned earlier it would be very important to know exactly how many people or what % of the cohort ESIS or AL4-AL5 covers (could be noticeably lower or higher than it was in the past due to the wider AL bands) and whether this is larger or smaller than the historical figure (under t-score). People mention 3% before (I don't know if this is precisely correct or not) vs. our rebased survey implying 3.34% :yikes: :yikes:

Is RGS going to ballot at AL5? I don't know but it isn't so obvious to me that it can't or won't in one of the coming years.

Any constructive comments are welcome.

Too bad MOE did not release the AL simulation for 2019 cohort else we can have a clearer picture.

As it is, even for the 2020 simulation outcome, we can’t tell much. Those with can meet minimum Tscore 260 and eligible for RGS, a handful of them could have scored more than AL5. As an example:

Student A
Math=100% (AL1)
Eng=98% (AL1)
Science = 89%(AL2)
Chinese= 79% (AL4)

Student A under tscore system could be eligible for RGS but under AL banding simulation, her score of AL8 would not be eligible for RGS. I supposed more of such cases which allows the RGS COP to be AL6 although ESIS at AL5.

The only time I can think of when RGS needs to ballot at AL5 is when the PSLE papers’ difficulty level is set at an easy level and there are more AL4 and AL5 students for that particular year.

Under tscore, ESIS was given to top 3% and from ksp survey seems like ESIS is around 3.34%? That’s possible because likely the entire band of AL5 is considered equal and there is no cut off in-between the AL5s at the exact 3% student (based on raw score ranking).