2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[SG_KP1]

eaglewing95\" post_id=\"2053246\" time=\"1640361217\" user_id=\"191495:

Hi Parents,

Pertaining to the moderation of PSLE scores, I checked in SEAB website and the following is the explanation, if you can see, there was one part that mentioned this
\"grading takes into consideration paper difficulty and the quality of candidates’ work....\"


1.
Are bell curves used in grading the PSLE?

We would like to clarify that grades awarded to candidates taking the PSLE are not based on pre-determined percentage of candidates for certain grades (i.e. bell curves). Instead, grading takes into consideration various factors such as the paper difficulty and the quality of candidates’ work, so as to maintain standards across years

This (SEAB FAQ) is definitely left over from the t-score days (I remember seeing it previously). I always thought \"grades\" referred to the issuance of letter grades (see page 18 of the PDF below where \"grades\" are A*, A, etc) and not the \"grading\" of the paper as to issue 89, 90, 91, etc marks for work.

https://www.seab.gov.sg/docs/default-source/national-examinations/psle/2020_psle_instructions_for_candidates.pdf

[SG_KP1]

For me, clustering of choices is still OK but I think it is largely trying to get lucky. For example with AL7,


#1. AL7
#2. AL7
#3. AL7
#4. AL8

If ballot out at #1, #2 and #3 may have no chance, as any ballot for them happens at "first choice." However, regardless of whether the AL8 school is #2 or #4, it will catch me so not much additional risk taken or loss here.

While I do think schools at the same COP have different odds (and past t-score COPs can shed some light here as to both vacancy and demand), I don’t always agree with the advice to pick the school with the highest chance. First, if everyone or many people think this way, the odds won’t be so much "higher" anymore. Second, not everyone assumes an ALX COP school is better for them than an ALX+1 COP school. For example, if I want to go to a SAP school and score AL7 something, I will try HCI first. If miss COP due to HCL grade or ballot out, I will go DHS, CHS IP, or RVHS second. Getting into ACS(I) or NJC just because they are a higher ranking COP does nothing for me, even if they had better odds than HCI.

At AL8, the game may be different IF getting into IP is more important to me than the offerings of any particular school (or type of school).

[ChiefKiasu]

I have merged \"2021 PSLE Results\" into the \"2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies\" thread as they seem to be the same discussions.

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2053249\" time=\"1640362824\" user_id=\"188234:

For me, clustering of choices is still OK but I think it is largely trying to get lucky. For example with AL7,

#1. AL7
#2. AL7
#3. AL7
#4. AL8

If ballot out at #1, #2 and #3 may have no chance, as any ballot for them happens at \"first choice.\" However, regardless of whether the AL8 school is #2 or #4, it will catch me so not much additional risk taken or loss here.

While I do think schools at the same COP have different odds (and past t-score COPs can shed some light here as to both vacancy and demand), I don't always agree with the advice to pick the school with the highest chance. First, if everyone or many people think this way, the odds won't be so much \"higher\" anymore. Second, not everyone assumes an ALX COP school is better for them than an ALX+1 COP school. For example, if I want to go to a SAP school and score AL7 something, I will try HCI first. If miss COP due to HCL grade or ballot out, I will go DHS, CHS IP, or RVHS second. Getting into ACS(I) or NJC just because they are a higher ranking COP does nothing for me, even if they had better odds than HCI.

At AL8, the game may be different IF getting into IP is more important to me than the offerings of any particular school (or type of school).

According to MOE,
More than 80 per cent of pupils were posted to one of their first three choices of schools.
More than 90 per cent of them were posted to a school within their six listed choices,

If I read this correctly, it may mean
a) around 80% got posted to (#1,#2,#3)
b) around 10% got posted to (#4, #5, #6)
c) Less than 10% did NOT get posted to their choices of schools.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/parenting-education/over-80-posted-to-one-of-first-3-choices-of-schools

Strategically speaking putting a bunch of AL7 COP schools at #1, #2, #3 is not going to increase an applicant's chance of getting into AL7 schools simply because the indicative COP of schools is determined using the result of the last student posted into the school, What this means is the majority of students in the cohort will have higher raw scores than the last student. (ie, have better AL grade). So if you missed out of #1, #2 and #3 will be a goner

Under 2020 simulation, these are the possible AL7 COP schools to consider (I have included the T-score COP as a reference because this is an important consideration to access balloting success rate)

NYGH AL7(M) - 257 + 2
HCI AL7(M) - 256 + 2
CHIJ AL7(M) - 255 + 2
ACS (I) AL7 - 256
NJC AL7 - 255

For girls = NYGH, CHIJ, NJC
For boys = HCI, ACS(I), NJC

If a girl has AL7 (M) and places her choice in the below order, she will likely to missed out on all AL7 choices in 2021 because NYGH COP has been raised to AL7 (D), and balloting for CHIJ and NJC (although AL7 (M) and AL7) would have given the priority students who placed the school as #1 choice.

#1 NYGH (257+2)
#2 CHIJ (255+2)
#3 NJC (255)

Similarly, for boys, the student may miss out all the AL7 choices if he fails to secure HCI. (I believe there was a parent here who shared this unfortunate outcome) https://kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2052591#p2052591

#1 HCI (256+2)
#2 ACS (I) (256)
#3 NJC (255)

If I am to make a choice with AL7 and hope to get into IP school, I would certainly skip NYGH (259) and HCI (258) and place NJC (255) as #1 choice or #2 as the first choice.

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053261\" time=\"1640393917\" user_id=\"30663:

According to MOE,
More than 80 per cent of pupils were posted to one of their first three choices of schools.
More than 90 per cent of them were posted to a school within their six listed choices,

If I read this correctly, it may mean
a) around 80% got posted to (#1,#2,#3)
b) around 10% got posted to (#4, #5, #6)
c) Less than 10% did NOT get posted to their choices of schools.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/parenting-education/over-80-posted-to-one-of-first-3-choices-of-schools

Strategically speaking putting a bunch of AL7 COP schools at #1, #2, #3 is not going to increase an applicant's chance of getting into AL7 schools simply because the indicative COP of schools is determined using the result of the last student posted into the school, What this means is the majority of students in the cohort will have higher raw scores than the last student. (ie, have better AL grade)

Under 2020 simulation, these are the possible AL7 COP schools to consider (I have included the T-score COP as a reference because this is an important consideration to access balloting success rate)

NYGH AL7(M) - 257 + 2
HCI AL7(M) - 256 + 2
CHIJ AL7(M) - 255 + 2
ACS (I) AL7 - 256
NJC AL7 - 255

For girls = NYGH, CHIJ, NJC
For boys = HCI, ACS(I), NJC

If a girl has AL7 (M) and places her choice in the below order, she will likely to missed out on all AL7 choices in 2021 because NYGH COP has been raised to AL7 (D), and balloting for CHIJ and NJC (although AL7 (M) and AL7) would have given the priority students who placed the school as #1 choice.

#1 NYGH (257+2)
#2 CHIJ (255+2)
#3 NJC (255)

Similarly, for boys, the student may miss out all the AL7 choices if he fails to secure HCI

#1 HCI (256+2)
#2 ACS (I) (256)
#3 NJC (255)

If I am to make a choice with AL7 and hope to get into IP school, I would certainly skip NYGH (259) and HCI (258) and place NJC (255) as #1 choice or #2 as the first choice.

If everyone does this, the odds at NYGH and HCI won't be any worse than NJC. In fact, they may be better.

Also, if I am unlucky and get ballot out I can get any AL8 IP school I want. Not everyone is so concerned about going to the so called \"best\" or highest COP school available.

Lastly, SNGS IP is supposedly AL7(P) so AL7(M) ballot out/missed COP at NYGH didn't miss all of them this year.

I do agree that have #1 - #3 at AL7 isn't going to increase your chances a lot at getting an AL7 school. But since you have six choice you aren't harmed much by this strategy unless you only goal is to secured an AL7 school with your AL7 score.

[SG_KP1]

Said another way ,under t-score and old S1 posting, or any S1 posting system for that matter, I would still put:


#1. HCI
#2. DHS
#3. RVHS
#4. xxx

I don’t want to go to ACS(I) or NJC, but now I’m supposed to put them there because they have better odds? Makes a lot of sense.

[ChiefKiasu]

It’s Christmas.

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2053263\" time=\"1640394752\" user_id=\"188234:

If everyone does this, the odds at NYGH and HCI won't be any worse than NJC. In fact, they may be better.

Also, if I am unlucky and get ballot out I can get any AL8 IP school I want. Not everyone is so concerned about going to the so called \"best\" or highest COP school available.

Lastly, SNGS IP is supposedly AL7(P) so AL7(M) ballot out/missed COP at NYGH didn't miss all of them this year.

I do agree that have #1 - #3 at AL7 isn't going to increase your chances a lot at getting an AL7 school. But since you have six choice you aren't harmed much by this strategy unless you only goal is to secured an AL7 school with your AL7 score.

This year S1 posting has confirmed that under AL the popularity order of IP schools did not change. With RGS and RI being at the top, followed closely by NYGH, HCI, ACSI SNG etc

Balloting risk for IP schools is not just determined by the pool of students balloting (A), but more importantly how many places are available for balloting (B).

For (A), its impossible to tell as no one can predict how other parents or students will rank their school choice,
But for (B), it's possible to gauge by using 2020 T-score COP as reference.

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053266\" time=\"1640395978\" user_id=\"30663:

This year S1 posting has confirmed that under AL the popularity order of IP schools did not change. With RGS and RI being at the top, followed closely by NYGH, HCI, ACSI SNG etc

Balloting risk for IP schools is not just determined by the pool of students balloting (A), but more importantly how many places are available for balloting (B).

For (A), its impossible to tell as no one can predict how other parents or students will rank their school choice,
But for (B), it's possible to gauge by using 2020 T-score COP as reference.

All of that is true but if I don't want to go to ACS(I) or NJC, why should I put them there? That was the specific advice that I said I don't always agree with (pick school with highest chance as first choice).

Still, regardless of what we know about (B), if enough people move from School A (higher historical t-score COP) to School B (lower historical t-score COP) I am quite sure the odds will get closer together, not further apart. Any if everyone follows your advice, the one brave student that selects School A will be a lock because they have no competition while School B will still need to ballot.

Of course, this is an extreme example and unlikely to happen, but unless MOE publishes the actual ballot data (which they never will) if I have a strong preference I will still try for it. Preference could be academic offerings, curriculum track (A Level, IB), secular or religious school, or travel distance. I am 100% sure I won't put a school I don't want to go to as first choice just because it may have more spots available, especially when there are schools I like at the ALX+1 COP available.

[mystique_j]

I just heard of someone who scored AL10 but didn’t get into a school with COP of AL11. Put as first choice. Another classmate with AL11 got in the same school. Non SAP school.

Is this even possible?