2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[SG_KP1]

Here’s a simple game where one is offered the chance to pick Task #1, Task #2, or Task #3 and if successful get a prize.


-Task #1. Low chance of success but get $1 billion if successful. If unsuccessful, try task Task #4.
-Task #2. Moderate chance of success, get $2.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #3. Good chance of success but not guaranteed, get $1.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #4. Very high chance of success but not guaranteed, get $0.50 if successful. If unsuccessful, Try Task #5.
-Task #5. Nearly impossible to fail. Get $0.01 if successful.

While #2 and #3 clearly rank ahead of #4, some will still go for #1 because the payoff of getting it is big and the benefit of #2 or #3 vs. #4 is not much in their mind (and #5 not that different from #4).

To me, it is very risk averse to take Task #3 if the payouts are as above. But some people will take a good chance for $1.00 as it is better than $0.50 or possibly $0.01.

Note to everyone: the above is not meant to assign values to any particular schools; everyone has their own preference here and I respect all choices/schools. The point is not all choices associated with “lower odds” are bad choices.

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2053342\" time=\"1640418807\" user_id=\"188234:

Here’s a simple game where one is offered the chance to pick Task #1, Task #2, or Task #3 and if successful get a prize.

-Task #1. Low chance of success but get $1 billion if successful. If unsuccessful, try task Task #4.
-Task #2. Moderate chance of success, get $2.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #3. Good chance of success but not guaranteed, get $1.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #4. Very high chance of success but not guaranteed, get $0.50 if successful. If unsuccessful, Try Task #5.
-Task #5. Nearly impossible to fail. Get $0.01 if successful.

While #2 and #3 clearly rank ahead of #4, some will still go for #1 because the payoff of getting it is big and the benefit of #2 or #3 vs. #4 is not much in their mind (and #5 not that different from #4).

To me, it is very risk averse to take Task #3 if the payouts are as above. But some people will take a good chance for $1.00 as it is better than $0.50 or possibly $0.01.

Note to everyone: the above is not meant to assign values to any particular schools; everyone has their own preference here and I respect all choices/schools. The point is not all choices associated with “lower odds” are bad choices.

$1billion vs $2.00? Can you be less extreme?

[Liew Nga Wing]

I hope the Chief can allow me to post a link here for an article in Singapore Lianhe Zaobao on 24 Sec 2021 for reference.


https://www.zaobao.com.sg/lifestyle/columns/story20211224-1224847

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053347\" time=\"1640423016\" user_id=\"30663:

$1billion vs $2.00? Can you be less extreme?

Sure, change the payoffs to the below and I will try like heck to avoid #4 (i.e. choose #3). The point is, not everyone values an ALX school so much more than the ALX+1 option (i.e. $400 million vs. $0.50 with some chance of getting $0.01).

-Task #1. Low chance of success but get $500 million if successful. If unsuccessful, try task Task #4.
-Task #2. Moderate chance of success, get $450 million if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #3. Good chance of success but not guaranteed, get $400 million if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #4. Very high chance of success but not guaranteed, get $0.50 if successful. If unsuccessful, Try Task #5.
-Task #5. Nearly impossible to fail. Get $0.01 if successful.

I.e. take the next third scenario.

-Task #1. Low chance of success but get $4.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try task Task #4.
-Task #2. Moderate chance of success, get $2.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #3. Good chance of success but not guaranteed, get $1.00 if successful. If unsuccessful, try Task #4.
-Task #4. Very high chance of success but not guaranteed, get $0.50 if successful. If unsuccessful, Try Task #5.
-Task #5. Nearly impossible to fail. Get $0.01 if successful.

Yeah, Task #3 pays 2x as much as Task #4 and 100x as much as Task #5. But it's still only a dollar, and I can only buy a bottle of water. Or, if I go for it and take Task #1 maybe I can buy a cheap ice cream bar if I'm lucky. It would depend on whether I am sitting in an aircon room or have been walking around in the desert for hours. If on the brink of dying of thirst, maybe I'll go for Task #2. It all depends on the relative preferences and everyone is different here.

[Veyron]

But at the end of 6 years they all have to take the same A level exam.


So why is task 1 more superior?

Does it guarantee better A level result?

If not then how can it worth more in value?

[iggy]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053290\" time=\"1640403749\" user_id=\"30663:

Its impossible for such glitches or for parents not to appeal. Maybe the parents doesn't want others to know that the child result is AL12?

The only other possibility is affiliated vs non-afflilated.

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053370\" time=\"1640434060\" user_id=\"30663:

But at the end of 6 years they all have to take the same A level exam.

So why is task 1 more superior?

Does it guarantee better A level result?

If not then how can it worth more in value?

Of course it is the same uni entrance exam and no secondary school guarantees future results.

Not sure why it is so hard to understand that not every person values all ALX schools the same. SAP, IP(IB), Co-ed, location, etc are all reasons why students may want one over the other (even if that means taking on low ballot odds).

And because there is no guarantee of A Level results, that's the same reason why some people aren't so scared of missing (or wasting a choice on) ALX #2 or ALX #3 and getting posted to ALX+1 #4 orALX+2 #5. They want ALX+1 a lot more than they want ALX #2 or ALX #3 even if ALX #3 has the best odds.

Everyone can select their choices however they want. Again, I just disagreed with the instructions that at ALX you should always choose the school at ALX with the so called \"best odds.\"

Have a good one. Merry Christmas!!!

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2053377\" time=\"1640438498\" user_id=\"188234:

Of course it is the same uni entrance exam and no secondary school guarantees future results.

Not sure why it is so hard to understand that not every person values all ALX schools the same. SAP, IP(IB), Co-ed, location, etc are all reasons why students may want one over the other (even if that means taking on low ballot odds).

And because there is no guarantee of A Level results, that's the same reason why some people aren't so scared of missing (or wasting a choice on) ALX #2 or ALX #3 and getting posted to ALX+1 #4 orALX+2 #5. They want ALX+1 a lot more than they want ALX #2 or ALX #3 even if ALX #3 has the best odds.

Everyone can select their choices however they want. Again, I just disagreed with the instructions that at ALX you should always choose the school at ALX with the so called \"best odds.\"

Have a good one. Merry Christmas!!!

Your illustration is using a common $$ value as an example which runs into millions.
This makes S1 posting sounds more like a lottery with different odds but in reality, the real prize is the end result (A Level result).

Since we know 80% of 2021 students got posted to one of the top 3 school choices, hence I don't think I am wrong to say that school preferences are ranked in #1 #2 #3 order instead of #1 #4 #5

[SG_KP1]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2053381\" time=\"1640439539\" user_id=\"30663:

Your illustration is using a common $$ value as an example which runs into millions.
This makes S1 posting sounds more like a lottery with different odds but in reality, the real prize is the end result (A Level result).

Since we know 80% of 2021 students got posted to one of the top 3 school choices, hence I don't think I am wrong to say that school preferences are ranked in #1 #2 #3 order instead of #1 #4 #5

You are lost. I'm fine with the following:

#1. ALX - low odds but love it
#2. ALX - medium odds, like it a little more than #3 and #4 but not much difference
#3. ALX - better odds, like it a little more than #4 but not much difference
#4. ALX+1 - great odds (but not guaranteed), like it a little more than #5 but not much difference
#5. ALX+2 - almost certain odds (nothing is guaranteed)

You want everyone to forgo #1 and #2 and put #3 as first choice? I thought that was the advice. If some kid loves SAP or loves IP(IB), why should he do that?

Merry Christmas!

[Veyron]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2053383\" time=\"1640439762\" user_id=\"188234:

You are lost. I'm fine with the following:

#1. ALX - low odds
#2. ALX - medium odds
#3. ALX - better odds
#4. ALX+1 - great odds (but not guaranteed).
#5. ALX+2 - almost certain odds (nothing is guaranteed)

You want everyone to forgo #1 and #2 and put #3 as first choice? I thought that was the advice. If some kid loves SAP or loves IP(IB), why should he do that?

Merry Christmas!

#1. ALX - low odds
#2. ALX - medium odds
#3. ALX - better odds


the example of the parent who mentioned his son lose out on HCI and ACSI is the reason why I would say that #2 and #3 will end up with zero odds

So that only odds here is just low odds despite having 3 choices