Forecast COP for the top schools
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DadOfGirl:
1. I guess my point about fluctuation is if your t-score is 246.9, you will see 247, if 246.1, you will see 246. This will be true also of the published COP, right? This is why I said everyone will have a chance of accidental over- or under-estimation. But it won't be very great, and you certainly won't be able to judge whether the fluctuation is more or less. All the better known schools have lower fluctuation unless they do something new and very different, simply because they are packed first.As a parent , i would have prefered to know, if T-score of 246 is 246.9 or 246.1. I would not put my first choice to Cedar if it is 246.1 & go for mixed school where chances of Fluctuation are more.
There is general acceptance @ Algorithm you have mentioned , but it is not officially published by MOE. It is better , if MOE qualifies it. Parents of past student always advice to put first choice wisely.. what does it mean...is there alogrithm within the main algorithm which prefers 'First choices' oveer second choices...
Look at what Vanilla Cake published on VS previous COP in this thread: over six years it has been 245, 247, 245, 246, 246, 245. That means if you have decimal places, the maximum spread is from 244.5 to 247.4, mean roughly 245.7. In other words, if you had 246 you would go for it and probably hit it 80% of the time. But at 245.8, it would be as risky as if your t-score was just 246 because of market effects. It isn't just statistics, but psychology, you know. If you try at 245.8, so will even more people at 245.9.
2. It isn't general acceptance only. It is published on the MOE website http://www.moe.gov.sg/education/admissions/secondary-one-posting/process/. And for schools like ACS(I)/Barker, there are special considerations you need to be aware off, but only if your child is from ACSP or ACSJ. -
ManU123
Your predition cop of VS to be btw 253-255.
This statement doesn’t make sense at all. Though students of VS hve a good shot at VJ, the latter attempt to move upward is always constrained by competing schools within its vicinity namely, Dunman High and Temasek JC. This also appliies to NJC with HCI as its neighbour.
VJC is highly respected and has been peforming very well over many years. However, as outlined above, this instituition finds it extremely difficult to improve further. Anyway, their 2009 A-level results were rather disappointing. -
autolycus:
Ok , we agree to disagree! ( I would like to see last digit of T-Score)
1. I guess my point about fluctuation is if your t-score is 246.9, you will see 247, if 246.1, you will see 246. This will be true also of the published COP, right? This is why I said everyone will have a chance of accidental over- or under-estimation. But it won't be very great, and you certainly won't be able to judge whether the fluctuation is more or less. All the better known schools have lower fluctuation unless they do something new and very different, simply because they are packed first.DadOfGirl:
As a parent , i would have prefered to know, if T-score of 246 is 246.9 or 246.1. I would not put my first choice to Cedar if it is 246.1 & go for mixed school where chances of Fluctuation are more.
There is general acceptance @ Algorithm you have mentioned , but it is not officially published by MOE. It is better , if MOE qualifies it. Parents of past student always advice to put first choice wisely.. what does it mean...is there alogrithm within the main algorithm which prefers 'First choices' oveer second choices...
Look at what Vanilla Cake published on VS previous COP in this thread: over six years it has been 245, 247, 245, 246, 246, 245. That means if you have decimal places, the maximum spread is from 244.5 to 247.4, mean roughly 245.7. In other words, if you had 246 you would go for it and probably hit it 80% of the time. But at 245.8, it would be as risky as if your t-score was just 246 because of market effects. It isn't just statistics, but psychology, you know. If you try at 245.8, so will even more people at 245.9.
2. It isn't general acceptance only. It is published on the MOE website http://www.moe.gov.sg/education/admissions/secondary-one-posting/process/. And for schools like ACS(I)/Barker, there are special considerations you need to be aware off, but only if your child is from ACSP or ACSJ.
& there are stories going on , how someone got posted to school since he/she put it as first choice! -
DadOfGirl:
Eh no problem, lah. We all wander around in the same slightly foggy environment trying desperately to rationalise our thinking...[Ok , we agree to disagree! ( I would like to see last digit of T-Score)
& there are stories going on , how someone got posted to school since he/she put it as first choice!
As for first choice over second choice, yes, because if your t-scores are tied, Student #1 who put School A as first choice will enter the queue first. In some cases (especially near the COP), that means Student #1 will get a place but Student #2, who put School A as second choice, won't.
In schools with affiliates, you only get into the affiliated queue if you put the school as first choice. That means if you put your affiliated school as second choice, you end up competing at a disadvantage. For example, let's say you are from ABC Primary and have t-score of 242. ABC Secondary has affiliated COP of 235 and non-affiliated COP of 255. If you put ABC Secondary as second choice, your classmate with 236 and ABC Secondary as first choice will get in, but you will not. This is because you are now in the non-affiliated queue since you put it as second choice. -
autolycus:
No worries :roll: . It is for future parents... i am done with this stress( Mine are done with PSLE)
Eh no problem, lah. We all wander around in the same slightly foggy environment trying desperately to rationalise our thinking...DadOfGirl:
[Ok , we agree to disagree! ( I would like to see last digit of T-Score)
& there are stories going on , how someone got posted to school since he/she put it as first choice!
As for first choice over second choice, yes, because if your t-scores are tied, Student #1 who put School A as first choice will enter the queue first. In some cases (especially near the COP), that means Student #1 will get a place but Student #2, who put School A as second choice, won't.
In schools with affiliates, you only get into the affiliated queue if you put the school as first choice. That means if you put your affiliated school as second choice, you end up competing at a disadvantage. For example, let's say you are from ABC Primary and have t-score of 242. ABC Secondary has affiliated COP of 235 and non-affiliated COP of 255. If you put ABC Secondary as second choice, your classmate with 236 and ABC Secondary as first choice will get in, but you will not. This is because you are now in the non-affiliated queue since you put it as second choice.
Affliation placements are well understood , it is the first one that is problem... No of digits for T-Score comparision is also a issue. How much exist in MOE database? If 12 by some rumors , then scenario you played out about tie between two students won't happen! -
INNOVATE:
\"VJC is very pleased to announce that the 2008 cohort has done extremely well in the 2009 A Level Examinations.\"ManU123
Your predition cop of VS to be btw 253-255.
This statement doesn't make sense at all. Though students of VS hve a good shot at VJ, the latter attempt to move upward is always constrained by competing schools within its vicinity namely, Dunman High and Temasek JC. This also appliies to NJC with HCI as its neighbour.
VJC is highly respected and has been peforming very well over many years. However, as outlined above, this instituition finds it extremely difficult to improve further. Anyway, their 2009 A-level results were rather disappointing.
http://www.vjc.moe.edu.sg/website/2010-achievements.html
So this result is disappointing ?? Any advice? -
happymum8:
It depends on the yardstick we use. If compared to RJ or HCI, I think it is quite far apart. But then, those 2 schools got the best students from the whole cohort. So it is not a fair comparison.
\"VJC is very pleased to announce that the 2008 cohort has done extremely well in the 2009 A Level Examinations.\"
http://www.vjc.moe.edu.sg/website/2010-achievements.html
So this result is disappointing ?? Any advice?
Found this statistics provided by semaj in another thread :
No of students with 7 A's and above (meaning all distinctions)
2008 RJC 360 HCJC 174
2009 RJC 303 HCJC 216
From VJ's site, there are 63 with 7 A's and above for 2008 -
happymum8
On the surface, VJC’s performance looks good, but we are talking about one of our best jcs so on closer analysis, its not a pretty picture.
The jc had achieved a passing rate of 97.8% for students with at least 2H2+2H1+GP/KI. They had already attained such passing rate way back in 2000. Now, here we are disscussing the performance of a very good jc, therefore, the better yardstick we can use is quality passes ie 3H2-4H2 distinctions. The analysis are summarised as follows:
2007 3 and 4H2 distinctions: 54.5%
2008 3 and 4H2 distinctions: 53.5%
2009 3 and 4H2 distinctions: 50.5%
You will observe the perforcentage of distinctions is dropping. -
Thanks atutor2001 & INNOVATE!
Like you mentioned, the best of the cohort are already in RJC & HCJC.
We can only compare (at this moment) with those JCs that take in the IP students from sec 3 (judging that VJC does not take in student from sec 1 yet).
Just a side note, why do we still compared so much (in statistic).
I would rather my kid to be in a above average school, enjoy the school life with lots of laughter and obtain a resonable ‘A’ level result which can see the kids to uni.
Be it RJC, HCJC, VJC… all will meet up again in the work force and the winner might not be those from the top JCs.
We know that the current society are looking for cheerful personality who can achieve high level of standard. -
happymum8:
I concur with your view. However, I noted an advantage of getting to RJ. Somehow, most kids will get the A's - as it is some kind of a culture (expectation). It is not true that they worked very hard to get it. They are very havoc and playful bunch. Kids in other JCs who do well usually worked very hard (don't know why).Thanks atutor2001 & INNOVATE!
...
Just a side note, why do we still compared so much (in statistic).
I would rather my kid to be in a above average school, enjoy the school life with lots of laughter and obtain a resonable 'A' level result which can see the kids to uni.
Be it RJC, HCJC, VJC.... all will meet up again in the work force and the winner but not be those from the top JCs.
We know that the current society are looking at cheerful personality who can achieve high level of standard.
At the end, it is being happy that is the most important. Maybe that is why I subconsciously prefer RJ because they are having fun and yet can get the A's.
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