Are you ready for 7 million people on tiny Singapore?

[Sun_2010]

Irrelevant:

Some folks like to go on and on about an alleged 50% increase in rental within a couple of years, without even offering a shred of evidence. Since I've got a bit of time, I went to read Ascendas REIT report and dig out the following data. I chose Ascendas because it has been listed for the longest period of time. I am only extracting the data for flatted factories / light industrial buildings as they are normally the cheapest.


Property
TECHplace I 10.1 m 11.0 m
12 Woodlands Loop 3.2 m 2.8 m
18 Woodlands Loop 1.1 m 1.2 m
Volex Bldg 1.1 m 1.3 m
Steel Industries 1.7 m 1.0 m

1st number refers to annual income for FY ending 31 Mar 2007
2nd number refers to annual income for FY ending 31 Mar 2011

Forumners can draw their own conclusions.

Finally we have numbers... :salute:
And they speak eloquently.

It had become the standard on internet to use rhetoric as fact . Ironic considering that Internet has really made information is just a few clicks away. Still no one wants to look at data, probably since it will prove them wrong.

[Harlequin]

Sun_2010:

Irrelevant:

Some folks like to go on and on about an alleged 50% increase in rental within a couple of years, without even offering a shred of evidence. Since I've got a bit of time, I went to read Ascendas REIT report and dig out the following data. I chose Ascendas because it has been listed for the longest period of time. I am only extracting the data for flatted factories / light industrial buildings as they are normally the cheapest.


Property
TECHplace I 10.1 m 11.0 m
12 Woodlands Loop 3.2 m 2.8 m
18 Woodlands Loop 1.1 m 1.2 m
Volex Bldg 1.1 m 1.3 m
Steel Industries 1.7 m 1.0 m

1st number refers to annual income for FY ending 31 Mar 2007
2nd number refers to annual income for FY ending 31 Mar 2011

Forumners can draw their own conclusions.

Finally we have numbers... :salute:
And they speak eloquently.

It had become the standard on internet to use rhetoric as fact . Ironic considering that Internet has really made information is just a few clicks away. Still no one wants to look at data, probably since it will prove them wrong.

:goodpost: :goodpost:

[Dora1]

Thanks Janett. Here's an article on the overall industrial rental increase in SG, not specifically for Mapletree. 60% rental increase in the last 6 years.

Haiz.... They could have also googled the figures themselves. Anyway all these figures are frequently discussed in news and those financial programmes, I thought it is general knowledge. apparently not.
http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/

[kaking]

Back up with facts! :goodpost:

Dora1:

Thanks Janett. Here's an article on the overall industrial rental increase in SG, not specifically for Mapletree. 60% rental increase in the last 6 years.
Haiz.... They could have also googled the figures themselves. Anyway all these figures are frequently discussed in news and those financial programmes, I thought it is general knowledge. apparently not.
http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/

[Harlequin]

Whatever fact you quote, don't forget to quote the increase number of properties they own/manage from 2008 to 2011 hor....


When you have one house for rental at 2008 your revenue is $xx, during the 4 years you loan more from shareholders/banks for acquisitions and now you own 5 properties, who can blame you for an increment rental income to $xxxxxxxx lei?

Got study finance or not? Berry simple calculation wan, never study finance also no problem understanding the finance reports wan, just have your eyes/minds open lei.

I am already deaf, don't make me blind also lei :sad:

[Irrelevant]

Great that some folks are finally showing some facts lah… Otherwise keep alleging this and that and hint here and there. Shadow boxing is not my forte wor.


Allegation: REITs pushing up factory rentals tremendously. After that, one mathematically challenged person shifted position and say only Mapletree pushed up factory rentals. So can be consistent or not? Mapletree "monopolise" and owns how many % of factory space in Singapore such that it can single-handedly push up rentals by 50% over 2 years? If Mapletree does monopolise the market, why stop at 50%? Might as well push the envelop and increase another 100%! In any case, I will encourage forumners to read the report of REITs to see how much are they increasing rentals by. The good thing about REITs is that they disclose their rental income by property.

Dora1

Thank you for showing the industrial property price index chart and the rental index of property prices. If you are a serious analyst of data, you will know the difference between the 2, no?

Let’s examine the rental property price index. From 1999 to 2006, the index is not really what one can call exciting. Remember, landlords also have their own costs. After, prices started to go up by approx 30% within these 2 years. This observation dovetails nicely with the last legs of the housing bubble in the US. After the bubble burst, rentals took a huge fall of 20% within a short period of time. I believe that as most tenants are signed onto 2 to 3 years leases, only a small portion of the market "enjoyed" the savings.

Due to the "superhuman" efforts by the world central banks to mitigate the effect GFC with lots of money printing, we are seeing inflation in our living expenses and property prices. If I compare the prices from peak to peak, the inflation from 2007 to 2013 is around 20%. Should you choose to compare trough to peak (2008 vs 2013), you will say it is 40%. If one goes all the way back to 2004 Vs 2013, you may say it is 85%.

Collectively, industrial REITs control less than <20% of industrial property in Singapore. Based on my experience, these REITs also compete aggressively against each other. Did REITs increase rentals? I am sure they do. But I would hardly think that they are able to monopolise the market.

[Irrelevant]

Harlequin


Thanks for the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, it would take a Herculean effort to undo/redo what our education system did/did not achieve. :evil:

[JannettLee]

Very interesting. I will ignore those non-factual comments since they don't prove anything and just make clear the factual ones before you sweep and swipe, people all got lost of the real facts.


Regarding your analysis and statement, I draw your attention to the statement in that article which stated that:
\"Since 2009Q3, the Industrial PPI has grown by an astonishing 102.8%, versus just 34.9% for the residential PPI. ...
And as the Rental Index for Industrial Property has only increased 39.3% over the same period. \".

As we can see, we know that within 4 years, the industrial PPI has shot up by 102.8%! If price shot up by 102.8%, do we sincerely believe the rent will remain the same?
Since residential PPI has only gone up by 34.9% within past 4 years and has 7 Cooling measures, why industrial PPI gone up by astonishing 102.8% and ZERO Cooling measures?

Next we look at industrial rental index, within 4 years since 2009Q3, the rental has gone up about 40%! That is average about 10% per year! Did govt says our inflation goes up by 10% average per year over the past 4 years? How on earth rental can go up by 40% within last 4 years when for the first 2 years (of that 4 years) we are in recession? And you are telling us that the rental escalation is justified regardless of Singapore's economy?

Next, regarding your statement:
\"If Mapletree does monopolise the market, why stop at 50%? Might as well push the envelop and increase another 100%! In any case, I will encourage forumners to read the report of REITs to see how much are they increasing rentals by. The good thing about REITs is that they disclose their rental income by property.\"
\"Due to the \"superhuman\" efforts by the world central banks to mitigate the effect GFC with lots of money printing, we are seeing inflation in our living expenses and property prices. If I compare the prices from peak to peak, the inflation from 2007 to 2013 is around 20%. Should you choose to compare trough to peak (2008 vs 2013), you will say it is 40%. If one goes all the way back to 2004 Vs 2013, you may say it is 85%. \"
I am afraid you are wrong because the industrial PPI from 2004Q3 to 2012Q3 has gone up by about 130%, and that is within 8 years!
Also, since you are so knowledgeable, can provide us facts on how much the REITs have increased rental both on an individual basis or at least on a collective basis? Otherwise, how to convince people here since people's experience on the ground who are being hit by escalating and jacking up of rentals while it seems keyboard warriors sitting in front of the computers are disputing their experience without providing facts to back up? Whose words do you think we would trust then?

Irrelevant:

Great that some folks are finally showing some facts lah.... Otherwise keep alleging this and that and hint here and there. Shadow boxing is not my forte wor.

Allegation: REITs pushing up factory rentals tremendously. After that, one mathematically challenged person shifted position and say only Mapletree pushed up factory rentals. So can be consistent or not? Mapletree \"monopolise\" and owns how many % of factory space in Singapore such that it can single-handedly push up rentals by 50% over 2 years? If Mapletree does monopolise the market, why stop at 50%? Might as well push the envelop and increase another 100%! In any case, I will encourage forumners to read the report of REITs to see how much are they increasing rentals by. The good thing about REITs is that they disclose their rental income by property.

Dora1

Thank you for showing the industrial property price index chart and the rental index of property prices. If you are a serious analyst of data, you will know the difference between the 2, no?

Let's examine the rental property price index. From 1999 to 2006, the index is not really what one can call exciting. Remember, landlords also have their own costs. After, prices started to go up by approx 30% within these 2 years. This observation dovetails nicely with the last legs of the housing bubble in the US. After the bubble burst, rentals took a huge fall of 20% within a short period of time. I believe that as most tenants are signed onto 2 to 3 years leases, only a small portion of the market \"enjoyed\" the savings.

Due to the \"superhuman\" efforts by the world central banks to mitigate the effect GFC with lots of money printing, we are seeing inflation in our living expenses and property prices. If I compare the prices from peak to peak, the inflation from 2007 to 2013 is around 20%. Should you choose to compare trough to peak (2008 vs 2013), you will say it is 40%. If one goes all the way back to 2004 Vs 2013, you may say it is 85%.

Collectively, industrial REITs control less than <20% of industrial property in Singapore. Based on my experience, these REITs also compete aggressively against each other. Did REITs increase rentals? I am sure they do. But I would hardly think that they are able to monopolise the market.

[pirate]

Irrelevant:

Due to the \"superhuman\" efforts by the world central banks to mitigate the effect GFC with lots of money printing, we are seeing inflation in our living expenses and property prices. If I compare the prices from peak to peak, the inflation from 2007 to 2013 is around 20%. Should you choose to compare trough to peak (2008 vs 2013), you will say it is 40%. If one goes all the way back to 2004 Vs 2013, you may say it is 85%.

If you pay attention to the money printing, you will also see the compression of rental yields. In short, rents did not keep pace with increase in prices.

[Dora1]

Irrelevant


I'm not in the property business, so I cannot argue with you abt the intricate technical details on the chart. However, that is what is happening on the ground. SMEs are suffering from the great rental increases. I'm sure REITs, gov policies and international money printing are all contributing effects. Anyway, like you said, from 2008 to 2013 40% increase in rent on average, and this is not considered substantial in your opinion? And there are definitely rent increase beyond 50% in the same period, and it was shared with me by more than just a handful of SME owners in different areas of SG. If you choose not to believe me, that's your own right because that's what a forum is about - discussing different opinions and exchanging different news and ideas.

Anyway, we are seriously OT liao.... The reason I brought up the property rental issues is to highlight that the tightening of FW quota so that companies will hire more SCs is not working if other business costs keep escalating at the same time. Being squeezed on both ends will only kill the businesses. Worse, there are a few of these SMEs that are way behind a lot of other companies in the neighbouring countires in terms of technology and product improvement because they are struggling to make ends meet day-to-day, no money to pump in, shortage of manpower to improve their products. Ok, don't tell me gov give grants to improve blah blah blah.... because all the grants from gov are co-payment schemes. If you have no cash to co-pay, how to ask for grants? Even if they manage to get the money, shortage of manpower, how to set aside spare manpower to look into product improvement?
This is currently only happening to a small number of SMEs in certain industries. From the way I see it, they will be out of the international market very soon - our neighbours can make the same thing better and cheaper. I hope it will not become a bigger problem and spread to other industries.
Ok ok... :offtopic: :offtopic: