Imp75\" post_id=\"2123981\" time=\"1701219979\" user_id=\"2358:

I still like T score which is computed based on statistical difference. Knew of someone with 4A* and 3A*1A only 1 mark difference (which should be the case they should be eligible for the same schools) rather than the AL which could mean huge disparity and Sch allocation. Back to what someone says, maybe G is trying to reallocate the brilliant ones to feed into different top schools to dilute the “top school” effect.

IfI was the education minister, I would have said, keep the tscore and

260+ is AL1
257+ is AL2
254+ is AL3

and so on......every 3 points in tscore is one AL level.

Too bad that I am not the minister

The irony of this system is


89.54 is AL4

894 is AL8

But this may be statistically less likely. But if it happens to someone…too bad or too lucky

publichughs\" post_id=\"2123976\" time=\"1701218391\" user_id=\"201234:

On top of this, i think MOELC could now take the median of 248 to 260 as their COP.

Unlikely because everyone who scored AL8 is offered Cat 3 third language.

No one who scored AL9 is eligible for Category 3 languages

phtthp\" post_id=\"2123972\" time=\"1701214746\" user_id=\"35251:

Correction

Let's use the benchmark Cut off point from MOELC, 3rd language, to determine what was the equivalent to the past Tscore, at 252.

1)

Last time under Tscore system up to year 2020 (when covid started), at the precise Cut off point, 252 :
then,

PSLE students are allowed to study 3rd language at MOELC, from Sec 1 onwards.

If your original RAW Tscore was at 250 or 251, narrowly missed by just one or two points away from 252, no matter how you appeal to MOELC,

MOELC also won't bulge, won't let your kid study 3rd language (Japanese / German / French / Spanish).

Also,
MOELC is only interested in your original RAW Tscore, not in your inflated nor adjusted (+1 nor +2 nor +3) bonus points gained, from your Higher Chinese subject.


2)

Current system under AL score, implemented from year 2021 onwards :-

at Cut off point AL 8, the same thing, only then allowed to study 3rd language.


If u have scored AL 9 points, that is, narrowly missed AL 8 Cut off, by 1 point,
no matter how much you appeal to MOELC, no point.

MOELC also won't let u attend their 3rd language lesson, either at Bishan or Newton premises.


Conclusion drawn
===============

Therefore,
what Is the equivalent to the past Tscore, at 252 ?


Answer is :-

AL 8, and not AL 9

Let's take AL9.

It would be 89*3 + 84 = 351

OR it can also be 85*3+80 = 335

Some online articles allude to a factor of approximately 0.73.

That gives us tscore of 245 to 256.

Now let's take AL8.

It could be 89*4 or 85*4 which is 340 to 356. The tscore would thus be between 248 to 260.

Thius there is considerable overlap in total marks which we cannot demarcate clearly.

Hence, MOELC would have taken AL8 as cutoff. Because the lower end of AL8 is already 248.

If I use this logic on my DD, she would have probably scored (97+93+83+80)*0.73 = 258, but she got AL8 and may or may not get IP. That is a new reality we must accept.

manorway\" post_id=\"2123965\" time=\"1701189652\" user_id=\"9303:

Just out of curiosity and I must apologise if this was discussed before...

Is it possible that if a particular paper is easier than usual in one year, more kids that year score AL1 and AL2? Since it is raw score converting to AL, then there will be more AL6 or more AL7 to AL9.

Even if a paper is not easier, let's say SEAB manages to keep standard of papers the same every year, it is possible that some schools figure out how to better teach their students and more in the schools score better. SInce there is no bell curve anymore, is it possible that there are more than 4000 kids scoring AL9 and better? 5000 or even 6000 kids?

In theory what you say is possible.

However, it appears that by the time teachers got experience, MOE has probably also moved ahead by gaining experience. So, until now hardly anyone is able to crack the possible tough questions beforehand.

Not to mention modern deviations like phone which always drag down students ability to concentrate.....which works in MOEs favour. 40000 is a sufficiently large pool for MOE to get normal distribution by setting appropriate questions.

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2123941\" time=\"1701173181\" user_id=\"188234:

I think NUSH is in the 3,900 but SOTA is not. However, a student can use ESIS at SOTA, so I believe SOTA's cohort size is likely in the ESIS vacancies.

A more recent Parliamentary Reply has the average IP intake at 3,900 per year.

Anyways, we'll never get the exact figures, these are all ballpark. The COPs also depend on cohort performance, DSA intake, and choice, so while interesting, all of the number crunching is only worth so much.

Hope you guys get the first choice :rahrah: :rahrah: .

Good to know

bbbay\" post_id=\"2123950\" time=\"1701177648\" user_id=\"175278:

For entertainment:

I recall back in the T score days,
>=260 corresponded to top 3%
>=250 corresponded to top 10%
>=240 corresponded to top 30%

And I recall also there were indicative AL score mapped to T score released by MOE before the very first PSLE exam graded with AL score. And AL 6 roughly =260, AL9=250 and AL12=240

If the cohort size is around 40K, there should be around
3% X 40K= 1200 students with AL6 or better;
7% X 40K= 2800 students between AL7 to AL9
20% X 40K = 8000 students between AL10 to AL12

Feel free to correct

M

Makes sense. Thanks

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2123938\" time=\"1701170008\" user_id=\"188234:

Regarding the number of AL4s and AL5s, I've tried to estimate the total number of Independent School (IP + O + Specialised) vacancies x 1/3 and get around 1,100 (estimate could be off). However, this may not be equal to the total number of AL4s + AL5s because there are a few things we can't account for.

-MOE can only slice the cohort and make the award cut-off at AL5 or another whole number score (in contrast, they used to be able to set the COP based on 1 t-score point). Hence, the number of kids with the award could be a couple/few hundred over or under the target.

-ESIS is not awarded to non-SC scoring AL4 or AL5.

-Not all students with the award select an Independent School. Does MOE over-issue the award because they know not all students will use it?

With respect to IP, I believe the total figure is about 3,900 (estimated vacancies, matches some MOE releases). I also think AL8 extends beyond 10% of the cohort, but that is debatable.

Anyways, the historical COPs are what they are and the COPs will be whatever they are going to be this year.

Best of luck to all students/parents that are waiting for the posting results. Another year is in the books...

If we remove NUSHS and SOTA from 3900, it may be 3500 available places for PSLE based IP schools. Not sure if that is the case.


The Sunday Times Page 3, October 7, 2012 says that there are about 4000 IP places. We can Google this.

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2123927\" time=\"1701161337\" user_id=\"3:

Woah. Amazing analysis! :udaman:

But I think you left out the AL10-20 which is the bulk of the people that took PSLE.

it is possible to guess by adding 100 to 150 for every AL and then at some point start subtracting 100-200. However, I will refrain from doing it. Anyone can try with an excel sheet. Make sure you get 38000-40000 total.

hi,


some stats

there are about 38000 students this year in PSLE. Usually around 40000.

there are 3300 IP places - usually taken by AL9 or better; some would have missed IP in balloting. Assuming that 10% of top performers are taking O level admission, either by preference or because they are balloted out, students with about AL9 or better will be about 3700 which is about 10% of cohort getting AL9 or better.

We can probably make an arbitrary guess that:
AL4 - 400
AL5 - 500
AL6 - 600
AL7 - 700
AL8 - 800
AL9 - 900

Total: 3900, which is close to 3700 above.

Note: Analysis is arbitrary and for entertainment only.