2016 P1 Registration Exercise for 2017 In-Take
-
grapevine:
Does anyone understand kiasu chiefs' 2C analysis? Does -30 change in vacancies mean that that particular school will have less places in 2C or more applications this year? Bukit Timah primary has -30 Vacancies, but usually this school has more than sufficient places for phase 2C.
the way i interpreted it as -30 means there is a shortage of 30 seats for phase 2c based on historical take up rate -
grapevine:
Does anyone understand kiasu chiefs' 2C analysis? Does -30 change in vacancies mean that that particular school will have less places in 2C or more applications this year? Bukit Timah primary has -30 Vacancies, but usually this school has more than sufficient places for phase 2C.
Chief's has stated this analysis is based on \"the remaining places of each school (which may be changed after the Phase 2B ballot this Friday) against the Phase 2C demand for places in each school last year (2015). This allows us to identify the schools at the greatest risk of oversubscription, should demand remain unchanged this year\".
However, demand might not be the same for this year due to lower birth rate..I pray.. :xedfingers: -
ptb7476:
I also interpreted it like this.grapevine:
Does anyone understand kiasu chiefs' 2C analysis? Does -30 change in vacancies mean that that particular school will have less places in 2C or more applications this year? Bukit Timah primary has -30 Vacancies, but usually this school has more than sufficient places for phase 2C.
the way i interpreted it as -30 means there is a shortage of 30 seats for phase 2c based on historical take up rate -
charlie_brown:
I also interpreted it like this.[/quote]but one thing i am not sure is ... are we comparing apple with appleptb7476:
[quote=\"grapevine\"]Does anyone understand kiasu chiefs' 2C analysis? Does -30 change in vacancies mean that that particular school will have less places in 2C or more applications this year? Bukit Timah primary has -30 Vacancies, but usually this school has more than sufficient places for phase 2C.
the way i interpreted it as -30 means there is a shortage of 30 seats for phase 2c based on historical take up rate
in 2009 the birth rate was 39570 and in 2010 it was 37967 ... so when working out the prediction , did the 2009 figures being adjusted to mirror the birth rate of 2010 -
ptb7476:
As much as Chief can look into the crystal ball, there's no way to provide an accurate prediction. There are many variables which can alter the outcome including the birth date of children in 2010 (apparently, parents did not want Tiger girls?? Sigh!).but one thing i am not sure is ... are we comparing apple with apple
in 2009 the birth rate was 39570 and in 2010 it was 37967 ... so when working out the prediction , did the 2009 figures being adjusted to mirror the birth rate of 2010
What Chief has done is to provide a best-guess-estimate which I think is about as 'accurate' as we can get at the moment. If Chief can do better, we should rename this site to Kiasu4D
-
Technospaz:
dont get me wrong , i am not complaining . i appreciate what chief has done
As much as Chief can look into the crystal ball, there's no way to provide an accurate prediction. There are many variables which can alter the outcome including the birth date of children in 2010 (apparently, parents did not want Tiger girls?? Sigh!).ptb7476:
but one thing i am not sure is ... are we comparing apple with apple
in 2009 the birth rate was 39570 and in 2010 it was 37967 ... so when working out the prediction , did the 2009 figures being adjusted to mirror the birth rate of 2010
What Chief has done is to provide a best-guess-estimate which I think is about as 'accurate' as we can get at the moment. If Chief can do better, we should rename this site to Kiasu4D
at least he bother to do all these prediction and collate statistic .. it make life alot easier for those registering for p1 -
Technospaz:
Indeed and don't forget anomalies can happen.
As much as Chief can look into the crystal ball, there's no way to provide an accurate prediction. There are many variables which can alter the outcome including the birth date of children in 2010 (apparently, parents did not want Tiger girls?? Sigh!).ptb7476:
but one thing i am not sure is ... are we comparing apple with apple
in 2009 the birth rate was 39570 and in 2010 it was 37967 ... so when working out the prediction , did the 2009 figures being adjusted to mirror the birth rate of 2010
What Chief has done is to provide a best-guess-estimate which I think is about as 'accurate' as we can get at the moment. If Chief can do better, we should rename this site to Kiasu4D -
ptb7476:
dont get me wrong , i am not complaining . i appreciate what chief has done
As much as Chief can look into the crystal ball, there's no way to provide an accurate prediction. There are many variables which can alter the outcome including the birth date of children in 2010 (apparently, parents did not want Tiger girls?? Sigh!).Technospaz:
[quote=\"ptb7476\"]but one thing i am not sure is ... are we comparing apple with apple
in 2009 the birth rate was 39570 and in 2010 it was 37967 ... so when working out the prediction , did the 2009 figures being adjusted to mirror the birth rate of 2010
What Chief has done is to provide a best-guess-estimate which I think is about as 'accurate' as we can get at the moment. If Chief can do better, we should rename this site to Kiasu4D
at least he bother to do all these prediction and collate statistic .. it make life alot easier for those registering for p1[/quote]Sorry - wasn't saying that you were complaining. Paiseh if it came across like that.
Just highlighting that there are many variables so Chief's predictions are about as good as we can get but may not reflect the actual outcome. We'll need to monitor how things pan out over the next week to have a better idea
-
ngpetert:
My understanding is likewise. The -30 in the extreme right column is only for those schools that have cut their intake by 1 class of students aka 30 seats. This number was already declared from the beginning of Phase 1.grapevine:
Does anyone understand kiasu chiefs' 2C analysis? Does -30 change in vacancies mean that that particular school will have less places in 2C or more applications this year? Bukit Timah primary has -30 Vacancies, but usually this school has more than sufficient places for phase 2C.
My understanding of -30 relates to the vacancy for the entire school, not merely a reduction of spaces in 2C, eg due to move to single session.
Bukit Timah Primary has more vacancies this year vs. number of last year's registration.
There is a separate red column titled \"shortfall\"...which shows how many seats less if u assume last year's demand.
Btw Grapevine, I checked again & saw that Bukit Timah Primary did not cut its intake leh. Did u mean Bukit View Primary?? -
I think the 2C analysis is best use on top of the historical balloting history. Rightfully, if the vacancies decreased or increased as compared to 2015, the applicants will normally change (say if decrease alot so much so that those more than 2km have no chance, it will decrease the number of applicants, like wise the opposite happens if the increase in the same magnitude).
For some traditionally balloting within 1km, this 2C analysis will give you a rough idea how many potential applicants may apply.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better š
Register Login