2019 P1 Registration Exercise for 2020 In-take
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We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda’s are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda’s is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it’s high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome. -
howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC. -
Tiongbahrumum\" post_id=\"1919015\" time=\"1562837794\" user_id=\"143725:
Don't forget 2018 was dragon baby year, it might not be a perfect reference for this year given that lower birth rate for this year.
yeap, one school that might see increased applications is CHIJ Kellock. They moved into their original new premised in 2018. In 2016, 2017, there are availability in P2CS. In 2018 there is balloting for P2C for SC only (PR didn't get a chance to ballot). Similar stats should be seen this year, that is, all spots to be taken up in P2C, and there will be no P2CS. Question is if PR gets a chance to ballot in P2C.[/quote]zac's mum\" post_id=\"1918986\" time=\"1562828879\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=1918986 time=1562828879 user_id=53606]Based on previous trends of various other schools that underwent renovation/temporary holding sites, I believe the popularity always tends to drop during those registration years when the temp location is inconvenient/much further away from the original site.
And then when the renovation is done & moving back to the original (new) premises, the popularity will go back up again.
That’s all I know. -
howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
You need to set a threshold what ratio that you can tolerate. eg: 1:2 (50%), 1:3 (33%) per vacancy... once hit, time to withdraw and go to your backup plan.
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
If you are activating your backup plan in 2C, you should be avoiding schools that have balloting Don't waste your 2C chance. Also, do not get caught out as there is possibility of parents coming in last minute and squeezing you out triggering balloting within 1km in your backup school.
In phase 2CS, go for the schools that have plenty of vacancies so you need not go through the agony of balloting.
Good luck. -
floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky. -
Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:
[quote=howard1019 post_id=1919142 time=1562897947 user_id=175129]We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.[/quote]While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.
Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance
Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 onwards :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:
P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs. -
floppy\" post_id=\"1919160\" time=\"1562900615\" user_id=\"97579:
While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:
[quote=floppy post_id=1919143 time=1562898445 user_id=97579]
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.
Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance
Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:
P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs.[/quote]Good point Floppy! Thanks for the insights
I encountered the same kind of situation 2 years ago, where I had to withdraw from 1 sch and rush to another sch on the last hour, last day of 2C. Almost going to a 3rd sch within same vicinity haha -
floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:
floppy, thank you very much for your fast reply.
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
So amount Poi Ching, Gongshang and St. Hilda, I think Poi Ching still get bigger chance to get a seat compare with St. Hilda. so we'd better stick with our 1st choice go to Poi Ching. For Gongshang, seems no any chance for us.
Both Junyuan and Tampines will be safe for us to apply in both 2C and 2CS. Is Tampines better than Junyuan? :roll: -
floppy\" post_id=\"1919160\" time=\"1562900615\" user_id=\"97579:
reading the catchment now its like a huge equation.
While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.
Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance
Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 onwards :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:
P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs.
I wonder why the tampines area has a dropped in intake from 2220 to 2040.
I read the risk appetite of tampines folks, from St hilda's folks having the highest threshold and 2nd comes Poi Ching and Gong Shang
PC history applicants past 5 years
2018 157 <1km
2017 107 <1km
2016 104 1-2km ballot
2015 121 <1km
2014 105 <1km
If Poi Ching TUR until 2B only hits 60% or lower, than the odds should be fairly good but the catchment of the area is such that potentially there are alot of <1km folks of PC, so it may still fall back to around 1.3 folks per vacancy.
The question goes back to what is the reasonable risk threshold is it 1.3X or 1.5X? -
Davischew\" post_id=\"1918897\" time=\"1562815293\" user_id=\"132882:
From Past data, if TUR for Phase 2A is < 49%, or Phase 2B < 74%, we have a high chance for 1-2km to ballot.
Besides Toa Payoh, Balestier is also within 1 km of CHIJ TP. Typically, CHIJ TP has been balloting every year wth 1km in 2C... My guess is that this year is no different.Orb\" post_id=\"1918891\" time=\"1562814595\" user_id=\"25015:
[quote=floppy post_id=1918885 time=1562813728 user_id=97579]
TBH, it’s hard to make any prediction for CHIJ TP. Location wise, it isn’t a new estate although there’s a couple of new projects within 1km. I think 1-2km has a chance, albeit an extremely slim one. May not be worth it to try if it’s less than a handful of seats.
Now at 2A1, TUR already 49%. Usually for 2A2 it will increase at least 12% means total 61% TUR at 2A.
I would suggest to go for a backup school.[/quote]Thanks everyone for the insight. What about the other CHIJs, especially Katong or Hougang? SC outside 2km for Phase 2C.
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