2019 P1 Registration Exercise for 2020 In-take
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Lexy\" post_id=\"1918984\" time=\"1562828681\" user_id=\"12180:
I should be asking if your kiddo applying as SC or PR?
PR staying within 1-2KM.kit_SG\" post_id=\"1918978\" time=\"1562827628\" user_id=\"175360:
[quote=Lexy post_id=1918975 time=1562827457 user_id=12180]
Are you SC? and staying 1-2km of the TKPS?
I looked through the past 12 years, the only one time balloting was done in 2C was in 2012 and the balloting was done for PR staying 1-2km. Past stats give a good indication of what the future lies.
The problem for TKPS this year is the 40 places cut for the intake from 240 to 200. 2 years that seen less than 200 applicants until 2C is 2017 & 2018. If situation in Ngee ann remain low then perhaps more parents will try there and TKPS will see a continuation of 2017 & 2018 (ie lower than 200 applicants).
If you are applying as a PR, you need to secure your place while not fighting for places with the SCs. Meaning you also need backup choices in 2C, if the numbers in TKPS is filled up, by all SC and PR<1km, you need to move to the next choice of school which doesn't require you to ballot.
Hope the above helps.[/quote]You might want to consider CHIJ Katong/St. Stephen's if your 1-2km is nearer to Marine Parade side. Both have chances for PR based on previous years, and affiliated to Sec Sch. -
zac's mum\" post_id=\"1918986\" time=\"1562828879\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=1918986 time=1562828879 user_id=53606]
yeap, one school that might see increased applications is CHIJ Kellock. They moved into their original new premised in 2018. In 2016, 2017, there are availability in P2CS. In 2018 there is balloting for P2C for SC only (PR didn't get a chance to ballot). Similar stats should be seen this year, that is, all spots to be taken up in P2C, and there will be no P2CS. Question is if PR gets a chance to ballot in P2C.
Based on previous trends of various other schools that underwent renovation/temporary holding sites, I believe the popularity always tends to drop during those registration years when the temp location is inconvenient/much further away from the original site.
And then when the renovation is done & moving back to the original (new) premises, the popularity will go back up again.
That’s all I know.[/quote] -
sprout\" post_id=\"1918793\" time=\"1562752648\" user_id=\"165459:
Thank you Sprout. What does the green colors numbers mean at the bottom of each cell? Thanks for clarifying.
I made a p1-registration statistics page to keep track schools in a watch list.
https://balloting.xyz/
Happy balloting! -
daze12\" post_id=\"1919128\" time=\"1562896161\" user_id=\"129377:
They are the differences between the number of Vacancies (or Applicants) in 2019 and as in 2018. For example, Ai Tong has 30 less total vacancies but gains 39 more vacancies for Phase 2A2, because it received less applicants at Phase 1 and Phase 2A1(44 and 25 respectively).
Thank you Sprout. What does the green colors numbers mean at the bottom of each cell? Thanks for clarifying.sprout\" post_id=\"1918793\" time=\"1562752648\" user_id=\"165459:
I made a p1-registration statistics page to keep track schools in a watch list.
https://balloting.xyz/
Happy balloting!
Green - good for this year
Red - bad for this year
The grey-out approximated numbers are the number of applicants in 2018 at the indicated stage.
https://postimg.cc/rDgWtrz4 -
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda’s are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda’s is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it’s high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome. -
howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC. -
Tiongbahrumum\" post_id=\"1919015\" time=\"1562837794\" user_id=\"143725:
Don't forget 2018 was dragon baby year, it might not be a perfect reference for this year given that lower birth rate for this year.
yeap, one school that might see increased applications is CHIJ Kellock. They moved into their original new premised in 2018. In 2016, 2017, there are availability in P2CS. In 2018 there is balloting for P2C for SC only (PR didn't get a chance to ballot). Similar stats should be seen this year, that is, all spots to be taken up in P2C, and there will be no P2CS. Question is if PR gets a chance to ballot in P2C.[/quote]zac's mum\" post_id=\"1918986\" time=\"1562828879\" user_id=\"53606:[quote=\"zac's mum\" post_id=1918986 time=1562828879 user_id=53606]Based on previous trends of various other schools that underwent renovation/temporary holding sites, I believe the popularity always tends to drop during those registration years when the temp location is inconvenient/much further away from the original site.
And then when the renovation is done & moving back to the original (new) premises, the popularity will go back up again.
That’s all I know. -
howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
You need to set a threshold what ratio that you can tolerate. eg: 1:2 (50%), 1:3 (33%) per vacancy... once hit, time to withdraw and go to your backup plan.
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
If you are activating your backup plan in 2C, you should be avoiding schools that have balloting Don't waste your 2C chance. Also, do not get caught out as there is possibility of parents coming in last minute and squeezing you out triggering balloting within 1km in your backup school.
In phase 2CS, go for the schools that have plenty of vacancies so you need not go through the agony of balloting.
Good luck. -
floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:
We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky. -
Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:
Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.
What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:
[quote=howard1019 post_id=1919142 time=1562897947 user_id=175129]We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.
Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.
St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.[/quote]While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.
Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance
Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 onwards :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:
P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs.
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