2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[snorlax]

Squirrelly\" post_id=\"2048843\" time=\"1637943492\" user_id=\"196057:

My DD got AL7(M), thinking of
1) NYGH 7(M)
2) DHS 8(D)
3) Cedar 8
4) St Nic 7(M)
5) SCGS 8
6) Nan Chiau O 11

Is there a risk she can’t get IP?
Can I have some advice?
Thanks a lot

AL7 is relatively easy to make decision, several parent already made very similar decisions as you, which is put COP AL6 AL7 school as the first choice, then several AL8 schools as 2nd 3rd choice. nothing to lose, and very safe.

difficult decision belongs to AL6 and AL8, they are the one getting the headache.

[shaunee]

Hi, my girl has AL7 (no HCL) and we live in the west.


She is keen on IP and her first choice is MGS (IP). However, MGS (IP) has COP of 6.

What are the chances of getting in? Thanks in advance.

[00skyblue00]

Thanks Putien for creating this chart.

What do you think?
No. of psle candidates in 2020 was 39,995. (40,256 in 2019)
No. of psle candidates in 2021 was 39,119.
Lower in demand with same amount of supply, the chances of getting a place wld be higher? Provided the reduction is evenly distributed? Hard to know that too.

putien\" post_id=\"2047756\" time=\"1637735954\" user_id=\"29927:

68.4% of the cohort is AL 4-20 (express).
The poll results https://view.sparkchart.com/d/SFOIVIImMvt0sAHFod4uF3QVyt3kz2t1m0kLCHiO1/ currently is skewed, we need more participants.

Please share the poll link https://survey.sparkchart.com/start/ShystWtoXlOgUPbQ635qPtNL4emnCS5vAgpU65Kss/ outside of KSP (e.g. FB) to gain traction, thanks.

[optrex80]

shaunee\" post_id=\"2048852\" time=\"1637946283\" user_id=\"56538:

Hi, my girl has AL7 (no HCL) and we live in the west.

She is keen on IP and her first choice is MGS (IP). However, MGS (IP) has COP of 6.

What are the chances of getting in? Thanks in advance.

Depends on the quantity of AL 4,5,6 students choosing for the same school in MGS IP...Nobody really knows right now.

[SG_KP1]

00skyblue00\" post_id=\"2048858\" time=\"1637961900\" user_id=\"143605:

Thanks Putien for creating this chart.
What do you think?
No. of psle candidates in 2020 was 39,995. (40,256 in 2019)
No. of psle candidates in 2021 was 39,119.
Lower in demand with same amount of supply, the chances of getting a place wld be higher? Provided the reduction is evenly distributed? Hard to know that too.

putien\" post_id=\"2047756\" time=\"1637735954\" user_id=\"29927:

68.4% of the cohort is AL 4-20 (express).
The poll results https://view.sparkchart.com/d/SFOIVIImMvt0sAHFod4uF3QVyt3kz2t1m0kLCHiO1/ currently is skewed, we need more participants.

Please share the poll link https://survey.sparkchart.com/start/ShystWtoXlOgUPbQ635qPtNL4emnCS5vAgpU65Kss/ outside of KSP (e.g. FB) to gain traction, thanks.

One way to look at it is that the absolute number of students qualifying for Express is fairly constant.
2019 = 40,256 x 66.3% = 26,690
2020 = 39,995 x 66.3% = 26,517
2021 = 39,119 x 68.4% = 26,757

If you are looking at IP or the higher COP O level schools (AL8/AL9), what we don't know is whether the Top 10% is still AL8 or if AL8 extends much past 10%. In the past, we got ESIS and HMT/Third Language Eligibility cutoffs and this was a very strong guide as to where most IP schools/low 250s O Level schools would fall. But this year these two were fixed at AL8 so we don't know how many students are AL8 or better.

There is some speculation on a) what will happen in the AL4-6 range, b) how far down AL8 extends (in t-score terms), and c) schools with % of kids scoring AL8 or better (some of this may be fact). Regardless, I don't think anyone knows for sure the true distribution of AL scores this year and how this will impact COPs differently from the indicative levels. I think the best everyone can do is give the first two or so slots a try based on the past and what they want, and then have some safety nets after that. Good luck, hope your child gets allocated what he/she is looking for.

[lassie girl]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2048837\" time=\"1637941150\" user_id=\"3:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048818\" time=\"1637938291\" user_id=\"30663:

NYGH COP for 2020 was 261 AL7(M), which is why I have indicated its 259+2

Why 259 is not AL6? That is just that because AL7 score range can be as high as 275 if AL1 subject are in the high 90s.

Will that all change for 2021? That is highlight possible because a 257 AL6 is now rank ahead of 259+2

Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.

Thank you Chief, for maintaining the integrity of information shared on this site!

:lovesite:

[soloestoy]

Anyone has views on choosing between Bukit Panjang Govt High and Swiss Cottage?


The two schools are nearby and have the same indicative AL cut-off (11)

Swiss in the past was a 23x COP school but has gained popularity over the years and slowly rose to 24x COP. It seem very popular amongst the kids too as I hear a lot of them aiming for this school.

BP has a good reputation and used to be high 24x COP and seem to have dropped a bit in popularity.

Which one is a better choice?

[zac's mum]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048866\" time=\"1637972498\" user_id=\"56690:

Anyone has views on choosing between Bukit Panjang Govt High and Swiss Cottage?

The two schools are nearby and have the same indicative AL cut-off (11)

Swiss in the past was a 23x COP school but has gained popularity over the years and slowly rose to 24x COP. It seem very popular amongst the kids too as I hear a lot of them aiming for this school.

BP has a good reputation and used to be high 24x COP and seem to have dropped a bit in popularity.

Which one is a better choice?

I have asked this qn before in another thread, no answer.

Ask anyone living in the NW area, they will tell you both are very good schools. Couldnt get any more specific reviews.

Just pick the one which uniform your child orefers, or the one with direct bus, i suppose.

[Veyron]

ChiefKiasu\" post_id=\"2048837\" time=\"1637941150\" user_id=\"3:

Veyron\" post_id=\"2048818\" time=\"1637938291\" user_id=\"30663:

NYGH COP for 2020 was 261 AL7(M), which is why I have indicated its 259+2

Why 259 is not AL6? That is just that because AL7 score range can be as high as 275 if AL1 subject are in the high 90s.

Will that all change for 2021? That is highlight possible because a 257 AL6 is now rank ahead of 259+2

Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.

Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.

e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.

Why?

1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M

What this mean?

There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.

At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.

In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.

However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result

One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.


e.g. student with AL11

choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP

At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.

However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.

So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.

Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.

[zac's mum]

MOE has mentioned that the actual COPs are expected to move up or down by 1.


The simplest way is to choose very carefully, similar to DSA, don’t put a school that you’re half-hearted in just because it’s an elite school, or just because your merit allowed you to. Then when you get stuck there, regret big time and try to get out.