2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
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soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:
[quote=ChiefKiasu post_id=2048837 time=1637941150 user_id=3]
Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.[/quote]If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..) -
SpongyBobs\" post_id=\"2048896\" time=\"1637978529\" user_id=\"196018:
If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
[quote=Veyron post_id=2048868 time=1637972828 user_id=30663]
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..)[/quote]Ok thanks for the explanation, so the premise is again on possibility of outlier cases (22x and 23x) fitting into AL11 band. But the reverse can be true too, 24x and 25x fit into AL12 and AL13 bands (random numbers on reverse logic, no math involved here). So it's a complete toss-up. -
m3i_m3i\" post_id=\"2048890\" time=\"1637977866\" user_id=\"18745:
I don't think the change from B's lower bound to AL5's lower bound has any bearing on the (loose) mapping of the different scores. The letter grade in t-score was just for show; by itself it did not impact the actual subject t-score. You are correct that removing the MT exemption knocks some kids out of AL8 or better. However, I assume MOE already accounted for this when they converted 2020 PSLE raw marks to AL Terms, and thus removal of the exemption is already factored in to the Indictive AL COPs (notwithstanding all of the other problems/uncertainties associated with this). I.e. if the student did not take MT, it would have made a lot more sense to assign AL6-AL8 for MT instead of translating the \"derived MT score\" (which appears to have been based on one's EMS scores and the MT score of similar students) to AL terms (which likely would have been at least AL5 or better). If so (assign AL6-AL8), the question then is whether there are more AL8s or better this year from what MOE already gave us (as in last year). Still, I acknowledge that how the MT Exemption was dealt with in the simulation is not entirely clear from everything I've seen.
If 1 + 1 + 1 + 5 = 8 with B now is increase from 60 to 65 at AL5 + no more exempted MT kids can get AL8 or better
So we can say the number of kids with AL8 or better decreases
The number of kids with AL21-22, who definitely have at least 1AL6 increases -
soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048897\" time=\"1637978852\" user_id=\"56690:
Ok thanks for the explanation, so the premise is again on possibility of outlier cases (22x and 23x) fitting into AL11 band. But the reverse can be true too, 24x and 25x fit into AL12 and AL13 bands (random numbers on reverse logic, no math involved here). So it's a complete toss-up.[/quote]Correct to say that.
If I am not wrong, what Veyron tried to say here is:SpongyBobs\" post_id=\"2048896\" time=\"1637978529\" user_id=\"196018:
[quote=soloestoy post_id=2048889 time=1637977710 user_id=56690]
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.
* The COP of all those school turned out to be AL11 because it was simulated using students choices which were made using T-Score in mind.
* Assuming in 2020, the students were asked to list down their choices using AL instead, those schools you listed may vary.
He laid down few examples of T-score of low 230s, or high 220s which probably will not even consider those schools in their 2020 S1 posting exercise. But if they were allowed to re-do S1 posting exercise using AL again, those students may have fallen into AL11, and chosen differently.
Just my 2 cents take.
I also agree with \"what is the chance that a students scored 1,1,1,6 = AL9. I think it is more likely to have 1,6,6,6 rather than 1,1,1,6.. A 1,1,1,6 indicated that students is more or less well-rounded.. Such students may not do that bad on the last subjects, barring other reasons (not feeling well on the last subjects, etc..)
We do not have enough data on hand to formulate different hypothesis and analyse. Plus a lot of things is not within our control (demand and supply).
We just follow MOE’s estimates and select the 6 choices with care. AL8 is top 10%, use it as the basis. This is more accurate than all the pseudo-analysis
1st choice can be child’s dream school (even if 1 point difference from the simulated COP)
2nd to 4th choice select schools with child’s COP.
5th and 6th choices use as safety nets.
That’s it. No need to over analyze else one risks being paralyzed by over-analysis. -
lee_yl\" post_id=\"2048907\" time=\"1637980560\" user_id=\"17023:
Can't agree more with this, although as a parent who is registering my son this year, the pressure is higher when you have to click the submit button than saying it here..
Correct to say that.
We do not have enough data on hand to formulate different hypothesis and analyse. Plus a lot of things is not within our control (demand and supply).
We just follow MOE’s estimates and select the 6 choices with care. AL8 is top 10%, use it as the basis. This is more accurate than all the pseudo-analysis
1st choice can be child’s dream school (even if 1 point difference from the simulated COP)
2nd to 4th choice select schools with child’s COP.
5th and 6th choices use as safety nets.
That’s it. No need to over analyze else one risks being paralyzed by over-analysis.
Also, anomalies always exist in statistic, but hey, statistic also taught us that with large enough samples, anomalies should not affect much. -
soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.Veyron\" post_id=\"2048868\" time=\"1637972828\" user_id=\"30663:
[quote=ChiefKiasu post_id=2048837 time=1637941150 user_id=3]
Seriously, Veyron, we all know how you believe AL scores are related to t-scores, but the fact is, t-scores are the past and people are all trying to get used to AL scores. Discussing the relationship between t-scores and AL-scores, well, that's really chim, but also really pointless. Will knowing the relationship bring some special insight to people trying to get their kids into the best secondary schools? So what if a \"257 AL6\" ranks ahead of \"259+2\"? How will knowing that help get my kid into his desired school? I fail to see the point of linking AL scores to t-scores.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.[/quote]2020 COP is determined by exact T-score of each school whereas 2021 is determined by a Al band that covers a wide range of raw scores..
e.g assuming all the schools above have 2020 COP of 240. in 2020 any applicant below 240 would be rejected and not eligible for balloting under t score and they will be excluded from pool of applicants vying for the school.
but under AL system, student with score 224 to 239 will now join the other as eligible applicant apply for same schools with AL11
with increasing number of applicants that can only lead to higher demand and higher risk for balloting. and in some cases it may push up the Al COP, especially those more popular school among the AL11 COP schools. -
iRabbit\" post_id=\"2048835\" time=\"1637941104\" user_id=\"51587:
Most of NYPS boys proceed to HCI (even no affiliation), just as the girls to NYGH. HCI and NYGH share common history of link to Tan Kah Kee.
I politely disagree with the phrase in bold. Nephew did well enough this PSLE to be offered any non-specialised sch he chooses. Due to personal reasons, HCI just edges out RI for him. According to him, quite a number of his NYPS classmates feel the same.LuckyM\" post_id=\"2048515\" time=\"1637884294\" user_id=\"190974:
My son scored AL 5 .We are confused between IP A level and IB programs.Whether to choose RI or ACS(I)
All top students will definitely choose RI , I am worried how he will cope up in the competitive environment.He is from the neighbourhood school. I feel ACS(I) less competitive environment(may be i am wrong)
Please guide
When I was researching between A level and IB for my son 5 years back, what I found then was that the former had more depth while the latter was wider in scope. Since my boy was Math/Sci-inclined, I suggested A level over IB to him. -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048805\" time=\"1637935533\" user_id=\"30663:
TJC 2020 COP was 250 or AL9.Anxious irene\" post_id=\"2048793\" time=\"1637934058\" user_id=\"45759:[quote=\"Anxious irene\" post_id=2048793 time=1637934058 user_id=45759]Thank you for all the replies.
Greatly appreciate.
Another question…..
Any chance to get into TJC with AL11?
DD was thinking of trying her luck.
TJC cop is AL9.
In t-score term, AL9 is around 245 and above, while AL11 is around 235 and above.
Even at AL9, the balloting risk may already be very high because now applicants with t-score as low as 235 (if there is a AL6 subject) can apply to TJC
So my recommendation is dont waste your first choice.[/quote]
With the above being mentioned, so DD got no chance in TJC given her AL11(M).
But again, after explanation, she would like to try.
So is our choices are :
(1) TJC, AL 9
(2) Anglican High, AL12(P)
(3) TKSS, AL9-14
(4) not sure yet
(5) not sure yet
(6) not sure yet
Is (2) Anglican High a safety net for DD? -
shaunee\" post_id=\"2048852\" time=\"1637946283\" user_id=\"56538:
Hi, my girl has AL7 (no HCL) and we live in the west.
She is keen on IP and her first choice is MGS (IP). However, MGS (IP) has COP of 6.
What are the chances of getting in? Thanks in advance.
I suggest njc. Njc had bigger cohort classes than MGS(IP). Stick to AL guideline by MOE last year. MGS(IP) has smaller cohort and this led to higher COP. Your chance is slim. This year choice is important unlike last year. I believe likelihood most popular school will be full by first choice. U need to remember if everyone select wisely, then all sec schools will be filled up by 1st choice. As vacancies are equal to no of first choice. -
Veyron\" post_id=\"2048917\" time=\"1637981979\" user_id=\"30663:
2020 COP is determined by exact T-score of each school whereas 2021 is determined by a Al band that covers a wide range of raw scores..
Let's examine this statement: \"However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result\"soloestoy\" post_id=\"2048889\" time=\"1637977710\" user_id=\"56690:
[quote=Veyron post_id=2048868 time=1637972828 user_id=30663]
Knowing the correlation between AL and 2020 T-score COP will help to assess the pool of students who will be vying for the same school with similar COP AL score.
e.g. if COP for NYGH was 257+2 in 2020, and we know that the lowest possible t-score for AL6 is 258 (assuming MGS), then we can say that it is very possible for NYGH COP to bump up to AL6.
Why?
1) Possible 258 (AL6) students who have failed to get into NYGH last year are now placed higher than this year AL7(M).
2) 257 is not the lowest possible AL7 score, which mean, students with say 254+M will now be equal to 257+M
What this mean?
There will be a larger pool of students who meet and surpass the indicative COP of AL7(M). Whether they will choose NYGH or not, that I cant say.
At the top, the differences are very narrow, with only 5 raw score mark differences separating AL5, AL6 and AL7 minimum scores. However, when it comes to schools with > AL11 COP, the t-score or raw score range will be much wider.
In one of the earlier examples, a parent highlighted that Nan Chiau 2020 Indicative COP of (11M) and t-score COP 244 (perhaps 242+2) For those who are unfamiliar with how AL is related to the t-score (which is related to raw score) they may think that AL11 approx 242 and above.
However, when we examine the different permutations of AL11, you will find that the equivalent t-score for AL11 is averaging 235 and it can go as low as 224 due to possible AL5 and AL6 subjects. What this means is that there will be a much larger pool of students compared to 2020 vying for the same school with AL11 result
One possible mistake students may make in S1 posting this year is to assume the indicative COP of their 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice school will remain the same because their AL score is 1 or 2 points above the COP.
e.g. student with AL11
choice 1 - School A- AL10 COP
choice 2 - School B - AL11 COP
choice 3 - School C - AL12 COP
At first glance, we may think that this is a secured choice because choice 2 is AL11 and choice 3 is AL12.
However, there may be a possibility that
School A COP remain at AL10,
School B COP move to AL10 (or AL11 balloting for student with 1st choice)
School C has balloting at AL11.
So if School C is a very popular school, it's possible that putting the school as 3rd choice will affect the students chance.
Since MOE has already announced that there is an increase of 2.1% of the 2021 cohort moving up to express stream, we should be mindful that there will be a larger pool of student vying for S1 posting express stream. And the spike could be as great or greater than dragon year.
List of AL11 schools:
Nan Hua High School
Chung Cheng High School (main)
Nan Chiau High School
Crescent Girls School
Bukit Panjang Government High
Swiss Cottage Secondary School
Chung Cheng High School (Yishun)
Fairfield Methodist Secondary
St Margaret's Secondary School
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls' Secondary
ACS Barker Road
Let's say we band all AL11 students together, and ignore the fact that some of them may aim for AL10 or AL12 schools. When you say much larger pool of students vying for the same school, the assumption is that all AL11 students will aim for the same AL11 school with the higher t-score COP? I believe it's more like the AL11 students are unscrambled (whatever their t-score might be is not impt since MOE wants to remove fine differentiation anyway) and fit into these schools in a different pattern as t-score.
e.g assuming all the schools above have 2020 COP of 240. in 2020 any applicant below 240 would be rejected and not eligible for balloting under t score and they will be excluded from pool of applicants vying for the school.
but under AL system, student with score 224 to 239 will now join the other as eligible applicant apply for same schools with AL11
with increasing number of applicants that can only lead to higher demand and higher risk for balloting. and in some cases it may push up the Al COP, especially those more popular school among the AL11 COP schools.[/quote]\"under AL system, student with score 224 to 239 will now join the other as eligible applicant apply for same schools with AL11\"
The logic is flawed here as you can't preclude the possibility that a portion of those above 240 students will fall out of AL11 band, no one knows for sure how the numbers will shift.
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