2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[SG_KP1]

lee_yl\" post_id=\"2050594\" time=\"1638617145\" user_id=\"17023:

Too bad MOE did not release the AL simulation for 2019 cohort else we can have a clearer picture.

As it is, even for the 2020 simulation outcome, we can’t tell much. Those with can meet minimum Tscore 260 and eligible for RGS, a handful of them could have scored more than AL5. As an example:

Student A
Math=100% (AL1)
Eng=98% (AL1)
Science = 89%(AL2)
Chinese= 79% (AL4)

Student A under tscore system could be eligible for RGS but under AL banding simulation, her score of AL8 would not be eligible for RGS. I supposed more of such cases which allows the RGS COP to be AL6 although ESIS at AL5.

The only time I can think of when RGS needs to ballot at AL5 is when the PSLE papers’ difficulty level is set at an easy level and there are more AL4 and AL5 students for that particular year.

Under tscore, ESIS was given to top 3% and from ksp survey seems like ESIS is around 3.34%? That’s possible because likely the entire band of AL5 is considered equal and there is no cut off in-between the AL5s at the exact 3% student (based on raw score ranking).

For 2019 (PSLE), MOE did not release school by school indicative COP but they did say IP Independent Schools were AL6-AL8. I.e. even with RGS matching ESIS (261) that year it couldn't crack AL5 (although many thought the 2019 papers were more difficult than the 2020 papers; remember t-score is relative whereas AL is absolute).

The 3.34% number is a very crude estimate; it's representative of something but I wouldn't bet the house on it being right for the cohort...

[lee_yl]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2050601\" time=\"1638620051\" user_id=\"188234:

For 2019 (PSLE), MOE did not release school by school indicative COP but they did say IP Independent Schools were AL6-AL8. I.e. even with RGS matching ESIS (261) that year it couldn't crack AL5 (although many thought the 2019 papers were more difficult than the 2020 papers; remember t-score is relative whereas AL is absolute).

The 3.34% number is a very crude estimate; it's representative of something but I wouldn't bet the house on it being right for the cohort...

Yes, so far based on MOE’s simulation, no school balloted at AL4 or AL5.

The ksp survey sample size is probably too small and the submissions unverified. Having said that, because each AL band has a bigger pool of students, it is unlikely that the AL4 plus AL5 can so coincidentally form exactly the top 3% of the cohort.

[soloestoy]

Can see from the pri sch parents briefing the T-score range of different subject grade combinations.



https://i.postimg.cc/BLRJ993H/1.jpg

[SG_KP1]

Next Wed, 22 December @ 9:00 AM. Good luck! :rahrah: :rahrah: :rahrah:


https://www.moe.gov.sg/news/press-releases/20211215-2021-secondary-1-posting-results

[ChiefKiasu]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2051885\" time=\"1639538807\" user_id=\"188234:

Next Wed, 22 December @ 9:00 AM. Good luck! :rahrah: :rahrah: :rahrah:

https://www.moe.gov.sg/news/press-releases/20211215-2021-secondary-1-posting-results

Still got a week. I wonder what we will learn from the brand new AL-score allocations.

[lassie girl]

For the fun of it and for discussion sake only - so please do not read on if any of these discussions is going to make anybody lose sleep or lose appetite from now till the posting results are out….


If I were to hazard a guess, it will likely be very interesting for the IP schools… and the trickle down effect might affect the more popular o levels schools and affiliation schools etc as well… we have to remember indicative cut off are likely just indicative - because last year’s cohort didn’t have the same “constraints” that this year’s cohort need to handle (ie new method of AL and choice ranking matters + your citizenship status)… one’s posting outcome is also now dependent on citizenship status so the same AL students competing may have very different outcomes…

The ones who made their choices/ranking with no elaborate “strategic plan or ranking” will likely not feel any impact from this. Eg choosing a school that the parent/child really likes although indicative cut off is “safely” higher. The kids either did very well, or they picked a school near them instead of the “best” school they can get. These will be the happy and contented ones.

Then we have the kids with affiliation. Maybe because of the uncertainty of the new system, likely more will put the affiliated school as first choice (or their affiliated IP as first choice so that they can still activate their o levels affiliation at second choice) which effectively takes them out of the common pool competing with everyone else. They might be the happy ones as well. Typically these affiliation schools will be quite popular as well as can be seen from their cut off. With more affiliation kids staying on, would it mean the seats left for “outsider” be lesser which will drive the AL cut off lower?? If these kids stay on for their own IP or o levels track, there is a good chance the affiliated schools’ IP AL cut off might be lower?

Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…

Then there is the group who are the daring ones who (say got AL6) and will still rank all the indicative AL6 schools first, followed by all the 7 schools then all the 8s… with the hope of getting the “best” school possible… posting outcome might really be very dependent on citizenship status…
And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…

Under the t score, we do hear of people who at least try for a better cut off school just in case that year, the t score swings. In fact I heard of some who put a few “better” schools just to try, with a safer net somewhere below. Would most people still try one AL better in this new system or start with schools with their AL score (just to be safe).. what’s the implication if enough people think the same way? We shall see…

Please remember this discussion is only for the fun of it…… :siam:

[Liew Nga Wing]

lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]
For the fun of it and for discussion sake only - so please do not read on if any of these discussions is going to make anybody lose sleep or lose appetite from now till the posting results are out….

If I were to hazard a guess, it will likely be very interesting for the IP schools… and the trickle down effect might affect the more popular o levels schools and affiliation schools etc as well… we have to remember indicative cut off are likely just indicative - because last year’s cohort didn’t have the same “constraints” that this year’s cohort need to handle (ie new method of AL and choice ranking matters + your citizenship status)… one’s posting outcome is also now dependent on citizenship status so the same AL students competing may have very different outcomes…

The ones who made their choices/ranking with no elaborate “strategic plan or ranking” will likely not feel any impact from this. Eg choosing a school that the parent/child really likes although indicative cut off is “safely” higher. The kids either did very well, or they picked a school near them instead of the “best” school they can get. These will be the happy and contented ones.

Then we have the kids with affiliation. Maybe because of the uncertainty of the new system, likely more will put the affiliated school as first choice (or their affiliated IP as first choice so that they can still activate their o levels affiliation at second choice) which effectively takes them out of the common pool competing with everyone else. They might be the happy ones as well. Typically these affiliation schools will be quite popular as well as can be seen from their cut off. With more affiliation kids staying on, would it mean the seats left for “outsider” be lesser which will drive the AL cut off lower?? If these kids stay on for their own IP or o levels track, there is a good chance the affiliated schools’ IP AL cut off might be lower?

Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…

Then there is the group who are the daring ones who (say got AL6) and will still rank all the indicative AL6 schools first, followed by all the 7 schools then all the 8s… with the hope of getting the “best” school possible… posting outcome might really be very dependent on citizenship status…
And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…

Under the t score, we do hear of people who at least try for a better cut off school just in case that year, the t score swings. In fact I heard of some who put a few “better” schools just to try, with a safer net somewhere below. Would most people still try one AL better in this new system or start with schools with their AL score (just to be safe).. what’s the implication if enough people think the same way? We shall see…

Please remember this discussion is only for the fun of it…… :siam:[/quote]

With the new AL System + Citizenship status and balloting factor, there will be definitely changes on the S1 Posting from the previous T-Score system.

Let's wait for the result announcement on 22 Dec 2021. Good Luck to all P6 students.

[soloestoy]

I thought only choice order is a new tie breaker? But it’s true that citizenship tie breaker is much more likely to be activated under AL system.


For affiliated schools, I guess even the schools don’t know how their pool of eligible students will increase/decrease under the AL AMR vs the old T-score AMR.

[SG_KP1]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2051941\" time=\"1639579788\" user_id=\"56690:

I thought only choice order is a new tie breaker? But it’s true that citizenship tie breaker is much more likely to be activated under AL system.

For affiliated schools, I guess even the schools don’t know how their pool of eligible students will increase/decrease under the AL AMR vs the old T-score AMR.

All things the same, I believe it is likely somewhat more students qualified under AL AMR than the old affiliated t-score COP. If so, this was not picked up in the simulation. I.e. if t-score COP was 200 and you got 199, there was no point to try the affiliated school. But if your 199 is still AL20, now you could have gone (in the simulation) but your 2020 PSLE S1 Option Form would not have included the affiliated school as first choice (since under t-score you didn't qualify). On the margin, this probably means fewer seats for the non-affiliated although exactly how many is :? :? :?

If more affiliated kids \"stay home\" as a play safe strategy, that will amplify the impact further. Edit: I have not considered more affiliated kids staying home = slightly less pressure on other schools.

[SG_KP1]

lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]
Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…[/quote]

Arguably, the kids with high HCL grade relative to the indicative COP can be more aggressive and try their luck at the non-SAP schools first if they wish. I.e. take an AL7 non-SAP school and an AL7(M) SAP school, a kid with AL7(D) can try the non-SAP first and even though the SAP school is second choice the \"D\" will keep him/her ahead if unlucky and ballot out at non-SAP school. Of course there is some risk that there is a ballot at AL7(D) and choice order matters but this is starting to slice things really thin (citizenship will still be the first filter at AL7(D)).

While you cannot \"jump over\" anyone with HCL anymore (no +3, +2, +1), given how many students are in each AL band and the flexibility it provides in the S1 option choices, I would say HCL has become more valuable if you like CL and can tolerate a SAP secondary school.

lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…[/quote]

I have wondered whether many people will take enough risk on their say 2nd - 4th (or maybe 5th) choices. If enough people adopt the +1 strategy, some of the schools may actually not fill up as fast as they did in the simulation. I think a lot will depend on whether the relative demand (vs. vacancy) at each ALX school is the same. If everyone at ALX puts just one ALX school in their choices and it is predominately the same school we could get some odd results.