2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)
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SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2050601\" time=\"1638620051\" user_id=\"188234:
Yes, so far based on MOE’s simulation, no school balloted at AL4 or AL5.
For 2019 (PSLE), MOE did not release school by school indicative COP but they did say IP Independent Schools were AL6-AL8. I.e. even with RGS matching ESIS (261) that year it couldn't crack AL5 (although many thought the 2019 papers were more difficult than the 2020 papers; remember t-score is relative whereas AL is absolute).
The 3.34% number is a very crude estimate; it's representative of something but I wouldn't bet the house on it being right for the cohort...
The ksp survey sample size is probably too small and the submissions unverified. Having said that, because each AL band has a bigger pool of students, it is unlikely that the AL4 plus AL5 can so coincidentally form exactly the top 3% of the cohort. -
Can see from the pri sch parents briefing the T-score range of different subject grade combinations.
https://i.postimg.cc/BLRJ993H/1.jpg -
Next Wed, 22 December @ 9:00 AM. Good luck! :rahrah: :rahrah: :rahrah:
https://www.moe.gov.sg/news/press-releases/20211215-2021-secondary-1-posting-results -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2051885\" time=\"1639538807\" user_id=\"188234:
Still got a week. I wonder what we will learn from the brand new AL-score allocations.
Next Wed, 22 December @ 9:00 AM. Good luck! :rahrah: :rahrah: :rahrah:
https://www.moe.gov.sg/news/press-releases/20211215-2021-secondary-1-posting-results -
For the fun of it and for discussion sake only - so please do not read on if any of these discussions is going to make anybody lose sleep or lose appetite from now till the posting results are out….
If I were to hazard a guess, it will likely be very interesting for the IP schools… and the trickle down effect might affect the more popular o levels schools and affiliation schools etc as well… we have to remember indicative cut off are likely just indicative - because last year’s cohort didn’t have the same “constraints” that this year’s cohort need to handle (ie new method of AL and choice ranking matters + your citizenship status)… one’s posting outcome is also now dependent on citizenship status so the same AL students competing may have very different outcomes…
The ones who made their choices/ranking with no elaborate “strategic plan or ranking” will likely not feel any impact from this. Eg choosing a school that the parent/child really likes although indicative cut off is “safely” higher. The kids either did very well, or they picked a school near them instead of the “best” school they can get. These will be the happy and contented ones.
Then we have the kids with affiliation. Maybe because of the uncertainty of the new system, likely more will put the affiliated school as first choice (or their affiliated IP as first choice so that they can still activate their o levels affiliation at second choice) which effectively takes them out of the common pool competing with everyone else. They might be the happy ones as well. Typically these affiliation schools will be quite popular as well as can be seen from their cut off. With more affiliation kids staying on, would it mean the seats left for “outsider” be lesser which will drive the AL cut off lower?? If these kids stay on for their own IP or o levels track, there is a good chance the affiliated schools’ IP AL cut off might be lower?
Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…
Then there is the group who are the daring ones who (say got AL6) and will still rank all the indicative AL6 schools first, followed by all the 7 schools then all the 8s… with the hope of getting the “best” school possible… posting outcome might really be very dependent on citizenship status…
And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…
Under the t score, we do hear of people who at least try for a better cut off school just in case that year, the t score swings. In fact I heard of some who put a few “better” schools just to try, with a safer net somewhere below. Would most people still try one AL better in this new system or start with schools with their AL score (just to be safe).. what’s the implication if enough people think the same way? We shall see…
Please remember this discussion is only for the fun of it…… :siam: -
lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]
With the new AL System + Citizenship status and balloting factor, there will be definitely changes on the S1 Posting from the previous T-Score system.
For the fun of it and for discussion sake only - so please do not read on if any of these discussions is going to make anybody lose sleep or lose appetite from now till the posting results are out….
If I were to hazard a guess, it will likely be very interesting for the IP schools… and the trickle down effect might affect the more popular o levels schools and affiliation schools etc as well… we have to remember indicative cut off are likely just indicative - because last year’s cohort didn’t have the same “constraints” that this year’s cohort need to handle (ie new method of AL and choice ranking matters + your citizenship status)… one’s posting outcome is also now dependent on citizenship status so the same AL students competing may have very different outcomes…
The ones who made their choices/ranking with no elaborate “strategic plan or ranking” will likely not feel any impact from this. Eg choosing a school that the parent/child really likes although indicative cut off is “safely” higher. The kids either did very well, or they picked a school near them instead of the “best” school they can get. These will be the happy and contented ones.
Then we have the kids with affiliation. Maybe because of the uncertainty of the new system, likely more will put the affiliated school as first choice (or their affiliated IP as first choice so that they can still activate their o levels affiliation at second choice) which effectively takes them out of the common pool competing with everyone else. They might be the happy ones as well. Typically these affiliation schools will be quite popular as well as can be seen from their cut off. With more affiliation kids staying on, would it mean the seats left for “outsider” be lesser which will drive the AL cut off lower?? If these kids stay on for their own IP or o levels track, there is a good chance the affiliated schools’ IP AL cut off might be lower?
Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…
Then there is the group who are the daring ones who (say got AL6) and will still rank all the indicative AL6 schools first, followed by all the 7 schools then all the 8s… with the hope of getting the “best” school possible… posting outcome might really be very dependent on citizenship status…
And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…
Under the t score, we do hear of people who at least try for a better cut off school just in case that year, the t score swings. In fact I heard of some who put a few “better” schools just to try, with a safer net somewhere below. Would most people still try one AL better in this new system or start with schools with their AL score (just to be safe).. what’s the implication if enough people think the same way? We shall see…
Please remember this discussion is only for the fun of it…… :siam:[/quote]
Let's wait for the result announcement on 22 Dec 2021. Good Luck to all P6 students. -
I thought only choice order is a new tie breaker? But it’s true that citizenship tie breaker is much more likely to be activated under AL system.
For affiliated schools, I guess even the schools don’t know how their pool of eligible students will increase/decrease under the AL AMR vs the old T-score AMR. -
soloestoy\" post_id=\"2051941\" time=\"1639579788\" user_id=\"56690:
All things the same, I believe it is likely somewhat more students qualified under AL AMR than the old affiliated t-score COP. If so, this was not picked up in the simulation. I.e. if t-score COP was 200 and you got 199, there was no point to try the affiliated school. But if your 199 is still AL20, now you could have gone (in the simulation) but your 2020 PSLE S1 Option Form would not have included the affiliated school as first choice (since under t-score you didn't qualify). On the margin, this probably means fewer seats for the non-affiliated although exactly how many is :? :? :?
I thought only choice order is a new tie breaker? But it’s true that citizenship tie breaker is much more likely to be activated under AL system.
For affiliated schools, I guess even the schools don’t know how their pool of eligible students will increase/decrease under the AL AMR vs the old T-score AMR.
If more affiliated kids \"stay home\" as a play safe strategy, that will amplify the impact further. Edit: I have not considered more affiliated kids staying home = slightly less pressure on other schools. -
lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]
Arguably, the kids with high HCL grade relative to the indicative COP can be more aggressive and try their luck at the non-SAP schools first if they wish. I.e. take an AL7 non-SAP school and an AL7(M) SAP school, a kid with AL7(D) can try the non-SAP first and even though the SAP school is second choice the \"D\" will keep him/her ahead if unlucky and ballot out at non-SAP school. Of course there is some risk that there is a ballot at AL7(D) and choice order matters but this is starting to slice things really thin (citizenship will still be the first filter at AL7(D)).
Not to forget the ones with HCL advantage. Would they prioritize the SAP schools over the non SAP ones? Interesting…[/quote]
While you cannot \"jump over\" anyone with HCL anymore (no +3, +2, +1), given how many students are in each AL band and the flexibility it provides in the S1 option choices, I would say HCL has become more valuable if you like CL and can tolerate a SAP secondary school.lassie girl\" post_id=\"2051929\" time=\"1639573778\" user_id=\"35383:[quote=\"lassie girl\" post_id=2051929 time=1639573778 user_id=35383]And the play safe group who put eg 1st choice AL0 (their AL score), 2nd choice AL0+1, 3rd choice AL+2 etc… the scary thing is that if enough people rank their schools the same way, the final AL cut off might really throw out some interesting surprises…[/quote]
I have wondered whether many people will take enough risk on their say 2nd - 4th (or maybe 5th) choices. If enough people adopt the +1 strategy, some of the schools may actually not fill up as fast as they did in the simulation. I think a lot will depend on whether the relative demand (vs. vacancy) at each ALX school is the same. If everyone at ALX puts just one ALX school in their choices and it is predominately the same school we could get some odd results. -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2051944\" time=\"1639584013\" user_id=\"188234:
Yes hcl will be very valuable in this new system. Having a D for hcl will make one 3 steps ahead of the same AL pack (when trying for SAP schools). Singaporeans can take that chance to try non SAP schools first before using this as an advantage at SAP schools - which again means they need to be strategic about their choice ranking instead of being able to put as they wish under the old system. This also could be one way for non Singaporeans to avoid balloting. For example, if one is a AL7D, one may not want to take chance to choose an AL7 non SAP because of the chance to ballot with citizenship rules, and to be ahead of the pack as well with a D which may not be so commonplace for our English speaking Singaporeans… And like I said what if enough people think the same way? and would the SAP cohort mix then change? Interesting….
Arguably, the kids with high HCL grade relative to the indicative COP can be more aggressive and try their luck at the non-SAP schools first if they wish. I.e. take an AL7 non-SAP school and an AL7(M) SAP school, a kid with AL7(D) can try the non-SAP first and even though the SAP school is second choice the \"D\" will keep him/her ahead if unlucky and ballot out at non-SAP school. Of course there is some risk that there is a ballot at AL7(D) and choice order matters but this is starting to slice things really thin (citizenship will still be the first filter at AL7(D)).
While you cannot \"jump over\" anyone with HCL anymore (no +3, +2, +1), given how many students are in each AL band and the flexibility it provides in the S1 option choices, I would say HCL has become more valuable if you like CL and can tolerate a SAP secondary school.SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2051944\" time=\"1639584013\" user_id=\"188234:
Exactly. Of course with no idea of the cohort’s performance we do not know how the AL scores will spread out or their relative chance in this posting. But what if enough people think the same way, the IP schools’ AL cut off will not be so nicely spread out like under the old system. Very interesting… we shall see how it pans out
I have wondered whether many people will take enough risk on their say 2nd - 4th (or maybe 5th) choices. If enough people adopt the +1 strategy, some of the schools may actually not fill up as fast as they did in the simulation. I think a lot will depend on whether the relative demand (vs. vacancy) at each ALX school is the same. If everyone at ALX puts just one ALX school in their choices and it is predominately the same school we could get some odd results.
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