2022 P1 Registration Exercise for 2023 In-take

[SG_KP1]

Interesting that some of the big name schools saw a noticeable increase in 2A applicants vs. 2A1 + 2A2 combined figure last year. This is due to some alumni that would have been in 2A2 joining the pool (either didn’t want to pay to join or missed deadline to register)? Or other changes like staff now eligible for the combined pool (wouldn’t think this is a large figure)? Or something else (randomness, schools somehow getting "hotter" than before)?


SNGS and Tao Nan were down (this year’s 2A vs. last year’s combined 2A1+2A2 (if applicable)). Ai Tong, Cat High, Henry Park, NYPS, and Pei Hwa all up 20+ applicants.

[beatbo]

Ai Tong, Cat High, NYPS, and Pei Hwa - all skipped phase 2A2 last year, they were oversubscribed in 2A1 (or exact matching number for Ai Tong) so there wasn’t any accurate number reflecting how many were eligible for 2A2 but didn’t get a chance to even try.


Looking at historical data for the most recent years when these schools still had spots for 2A2 applicants, the total number don’t seem that much different from this year’s combined 2A numbers, save for Cat High’s 149 vs 2020’s 136 (+13). And of course genuine +20 or more applicants for Henry Park which has not skipped phase 2A2 in last 3 years, is a bit of surprise.

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074488\" time=\"1657810582\" user_id=\"188234:

Interesting that some of the big name schools saw a noticeable increase in 2A applicants vs. 2A1 + 2A2 combined figure last year. This is due to some alumni that would have been in 2A2 joining the pool (either didn't want to pay to join or missed deadline to register)? Or other changes like staff now eligible for the combined pool (wouldn't think this is a large figure)? Or something else (randomness, schools somehow getting \"hotter\" than before)?

SNGS and Tao Nan were down (this year's 2A vs. last year's combined 2A1+2A2 (if applicable)). Ai Tong, Cat High, Henry Park, NYPS, and Pei Hwa all up 20+ applicants.

[floppy]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074488\" time=\"1657810582\" user_id=\"188234:

Interesting that some of the big name schools saw a noticeable increase in 2A applicants vs. 2A1 + 2A2 combined figure last year. This is due to some alumni that would have been in 2A2 joining the pool (either didn't want to pay to join or missed deadline to register)? Or other changes like staff now eligible for the combined pool (wouldn't think this is a large figure)? Or something else (randomness, schools somehow getting \"hotter\" than before)?

SNGS and Tao Nan were down (this year's 2A vs. last year's combined 2A1+2A2 (if applicable)). Ai Tong, Cat High, Henry Park, NYPS, and Pei Hwa all up 20+ applicants.

TBF, it's hard to make a case because some schools (ATS, CHS, SNGS, NYPS, PHPPS and RS) didn't have a chance to get to Phase 2A2 last year. Therefore, it's not possible to test out how big the Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 market would theoretically be last year.

Notwithstanding, ATS, CHS and SNGS (I'm just looking at the first 3 schools alphabetically) has a record Phase 2A number this year compared to Phase 2A1+2A2 from the last 10 years (when both data from Phase 2A1 and 2A2 are available), while NYPS (185 applicants) is about on par with their previous highs of 184 applicants (year 2020) and 182 (2019), Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 combined.

[crm]

floppy\" post_id=\"2074478\" time=\"1657804744\" user_id=\"97579:

Once in a while, these things happen. Nothing surprising.

Then how to explain 76 to 77 ? where is that 1 grabbed ? :razz:

[floppy]

crm\" post_id=\"2074493\" time=\"1657815038\" user_id=\"101989:

Then how to explain 76 to 77 ? where is that 1 grabbed ? :razz:

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

If you are trying to say Phase 1 has 104 applicants, thus this phase should have 76 but is now showing 77, it's not unusual. Some previous applicant may have withdrew and register in another school. Again, not unusual if you have been tracking all the schools' updated figures.

[Lexy]

floppy\" post_id=\"2074494\" time=\"1657816015\" user_id=\"97579:

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

If you are trying to say Phase 1 has 104 applicants, thus this phase should have 76 but is now showing 77, it's not unusual. Some previous applicant may have withdrew and register in another school. Again, not unusual if you have been tracking all the schools' updated figures.

If that someone didn't withdrew from NHPS, it will be shown as balloting within 1-2km folks. It is also not as exact as it seem. with 111 enrolled for 77, 34 failed. These are >2km folks or PRs.
Withdrawals are common, 21 withdrew during this phase.

[SG_KP1]

beatbo\" post_id=\"2074491\" time=\"1657813921\" user_id=\"178388:

floppy\" post_id=\"2074492\" time=\"1657814294\" user_id=\"97579:[quote=floppy post_id=2074492 time=1657814294 user_id=97579]TBF, it's hard to make a case because some schools (ATS, CHS, SNGS, NYPS, PHPPS and RS) didn't have a chance to get to Phase 2A2 last year. Therefore, it's not possible to test out how big the Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 market would theoretically be last year.

Notwithstanding, ATS, CHS and SNGS (I'm just looking at the first 3 schools alphabetically) has a record Phase 2A number this year compared to Phase 2A1+2A2 from the last 10 years (when both data from Phase 2A1 and 2A2 are available), while NYPS (185 applicants) is about on par with their previous highs of 184 applicants (year 2020) and 182 (2019), Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 combined.

Understand, I should have picked up on that. Will be interesting to see if things settle here (>2 km) or how long it takes for enough people to jump in the next bucket (1-2 km).

I guess 2B will be much the same for many schools (those that were at 20 seats previously). Some that lost seats in the new split to 2C will have to see if anything changes.

[Lexy]

Lexy\" post_id=\"2073615\" time=\"1657203558\" user_id=\"12180:

Another 2k+ were added today. 16 schools are oversubscribed so far:

Catholic High School
Chongzheng Primary School
Frontier Primary School
Horizon Primary School
Methodist Girls’ School
Nan Hua Primary School
Oasis Primary School
Pei Chun Public School
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School
Punggol Green Primary School
Punggol View Primary School
Rosyth School
South View Primary School
Temasek Primary School
West Spring Primary School
Westwood Primary School

Another 10 schools are currently with less than 10 spots left. Of those 10, Wellington caught my eye as it could be a MK effect, up from 48 to 74 so far in 2A. SCGS and Admiralty are also not in the shortlist of 35.

When I compared this year's applicants so far vs last year's applicants in 2A, around 10 schools have >40 lesser applicants so far with Rulang recording only 39 vs last year's 132. Hopefully it's not a case of 2A2 folks not knowing they can apply under the merged 2A phase

Given that phase 2 becoming more competitive due to the 1/3 rule, I think more people would apply under 2A if they are eligible. Reckon we still have another approximately 2k applicants to go.

The one week wait till 14 July may not be so pleasant for some.

Final stats of the Phase 2A. Application over 7k, a few hundred lesser than 2021 numbers but failed applicants increased from 300+ to 700+. About 51% of the vacancies are filled so far.

Of the 35 schools that were indicated as balloting potential, 4 schools escaped balloting, ACSP, Fern Green, Pasir Ris, Tao Nan, whilst SCGS and Wellington were not on the original 35. Final oversubscribed schools stood at 33, almost doubled from 2021. For SCs, 4 schools were balloting within 1km, 7 for 1-2km and 16 for >2km as compared to 3, 4 and 5 for the corresponding period.

[floppy]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074500\" time=\"1657835140\" user_id=\"188234:

Understand, I should have picked up on that. Will be interesting to see if things settle here (>2 km) or how long it takes for enough people to jump in the next bucket (1-2 km).

I guess 2B will be much the same for many schools (those that were at 20 seats previously). Some that lost seats in the new split to 2C will have to see if anything changes.

My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.

An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir and low density housing) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.

For MK schools that are balloting, < 2km should be the norm. MK enrollment priority is based on 500m and <1km, with a “bye” given to students from their partner EYC (typically within 1km of the MK). As a result, potential applicants from MK to the primary school (about 50 to 70 per cohort) are likely to be < 2km. This would make them very competitive in this phase. If you a former student from schools like Gongshang, Frontier and Princess Elizabeth, you would have to weigh the odds of whether it’s worthwhile to move < 2km to secure a chance at balloting or < 1km to be safe (for now).

[SG_KP1]

floppy\" post_id=\"2074504\" time=\"1657839876\" user_id=\"97579:

My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.

An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.
.....

Understand, I've never looked at it \"that close\" (school by school) since I won't be playing the game anytime soon . I just think it's an interesting process, and in the aggregate there may be some conclusions one could hypothesize on.

I guess I wonder how many people are naturally within 1-2 km of the school (i.e. living there since kids were born or for a few years). If I were going to move, I would move within 1 km to be safe. Or at least try to do so. Eventually there are real housing constraints, and I guess right now it is hard to truly evaluate staying further out in a place that \"works\" better vs. going < 1 km in a place that has issues for 30 months.

As you say, some schools may be stuck at 2 km, in which case moving 1-2 km will be safe (at least for a while).

For the housing constraint reasons, I think some schools will look comparatively good in 2C. Yes, still need to ballot but I think the odds will be better than they were (and relatively speaking good value). Or I may be underestimating the distance calculation (again, haven't gone school by school in detail) and/or more people trying their luck to push the odds back towards where they were with 20 seats.

The watch continues...