2022 P1 Registration Exercise for 2023 In-take
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floppy\" post_id=\"2074494\" time=\"1657816015\" user_id=\"97579:
If that someone didn't withdrew from NHPS, it will be shown as balloting within 1-2km folks. It is also not as exact as it seem. with 111 enrolled for 77, 34 failed. These are >2km folks or PRs.
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
If you are trying to say Phase 1 has 104 applicants, thus this phase should have 76 but is now showing 77, it's not unusual. Some previous applicant may have withdrew and register in another school. Again, not unusual if you have been tracking all the schools' updated figures.
Withdrawals are common, 21 withdrew during this phase. -
beatbo\" post_id=\"2074491\" time=\"1657813921\" user_id=\"178388:
Understand, I should have picked up on that. Will be interesting to see if things settle here (>2 km) or how long it takes for enough people to jump in the next bucket (1-2 km).floppy\" post_id=\"2074492\" time=\"1657814294\" user_id=\"97579:[quote=floppy post_id=2074492 time=1657814294 user_id=97579]TBF, it's hard to make a case because some schools (ATS, CHS, SNGS, NYPS, PHPPS and RS) didn't have a chance to get to Phase 2A2 last year. Therefore, it's not possible to test out how big the Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 market would theoretically be last year.
Notwithstanding, ATS, CHS and SNGS (I'm just looking at the first 3 schools alphabetically) has a record Phase 2A number this year compared to Phase 2A1+2A2 from the last 10 years (when both data from Phase 2A1 and 2A2 are available), while NYPS (185 applicants) is about on par with their previous highs of 184 applicants (year 2020) and 182 (2019), Phase 2A1 + Phase 2A2 combined.
I guess 2B will be much the same for many schools (those that were at 20 seats previously). Some that lost seats in the new split to 2C will have to see if anything changes. -
Lexy\" post_id=\"2073615\" time=\"1657203558\" user_id=\"12180:
Final stats of the Phase 2A. Application over 7k, a few hundred lesser than 2021 numbers but failed applicants increased from 300+ to 700+. About 51% of the vacancies are filled so far.
Another 2k+ were added today. 16 schools are oversubscribed so far:
Catholic High School
Chongzheng Primary School
Frontier Primary School
Horizon Primary School
Methodist Girls’ School
Nan Hua Primary School
Oasis Primary School
Pei Chun Public School
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School
Punggol Green Primary School
Punggol View Primary School
Rosyth School
South View Primary School
Temasek Primary School
West Spring Primary School
Westwood Primary School
Another 10 schools are currently with less than 10 spots left. Of those 10, Wellington caught my eye as it could be a MK effect, up from 48 to 74 so far in 2A. SCGS and Admiralty are also not in the shortlist of 35.
When I compared this year's applicants so far vs last year's applicants in 2A, around 10 schools have >40 lesser applicants so far with Rulang recording only 39 vs last year's 132. Hopefully it's not a case of 2A2 folks not knowing they can apply under the merged 2A phase
Given that phase 2 becoming more competitive due to the 1/3 rule, I think more people would apply under 2A if they are eligible. Reckon we still have another approximately 2k applicants to go.
The one week wait till 14 July may not be so pleasant for some.
Of the 35 schools that were indicated as balloting potential, 4 schools escaped balloting, ACSP, Fern Green, Pasir Ris, Tao Nan, whilst SCGS and Wellington were not on the original 35. Final oversubscribed schools stood at 33, almost doubled from 2021. For SCs, 4 schools were balloting within 1km, 7 for 1-2km and 16 for >2km as compared to 3, 4 and 5 for the corresponding period. -
SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074500\" time=\"1657835140\" user_id=\"188234:
My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.
Understand, I should have picked up on that. Will be interesting to see if things settle here (>2 km) or how long it takes for enough people to jump in the next bucket (1-2 km).
I guess 2B will be much the same for many schools (those that were at 20 seats previously). Some that lost seats in the new split to 2C will have to see if anything changes.
An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir and low density housing) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.
For MK schools that are balloting, < 2km should be the norm. MK enrollment priority is based on 500m and <1km, with a “bye” given to students from their partner EYC (typically within 1km of the MK). As a result, potential applicants from MK to the primary school (about 50 to 70 per cohort) are likely to be < 2km. This would make them very competitive in this phase. If you a former student from schools like Gongshang, Frontier and Princess Elizabeth, you would have to weigh the odds of whether it’s worthwhile to move < 2km to secure a chance at balloting or < 1km to be safe (for now). -
floppy\" post_id=\"2074504\" time=\"1657839876\" user_id=\"97579:
Understand, I've never looked at it \"that close\" (school by school) since I won't be playing the game anytime soon
My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.
An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.
..... . I just think it's an interesting process, and in the aggregate there may be some conclusions one could hypothesize on.
I guess I wonder how many people are naturally within 1-2 km of the school (i.e. living there since kids were born or for a few years). If I were going to move, I would move within 1 km to be safe. Or at least try to do so. Eventually there are real housing constraints, and I guess right now it is hard to truly evaluate staying further out in a place that \"works\" better vs. going < 1 km in a place that has issues for 30 months.
As you say, some schools may be stuck at 2 km, in which case moving 1-2 km will be safe (at least for a while).
For the housing constraint reasons, I think some schools will look comparatively good in 2C. Yes, still need to ballot but I think the odds will be better than they were (and relatively speaking good value). Or I may be underestimating the distance calculation (again, haven't gone school by school in detail) and/or more people trying their luck to push the odds back towards where they were with 20 seats.
The watch continues... -
For the below article,
1. The school name should be Wellington in Sembawang area not Welling as stated in the article.
2. The biggest surprises in Punggol area is caused by the removal of 30 places from the two (2) required strong balloting schools as the number of applicants for Phase 2A in both schools are the same or lesser compared to Year 2021. The removal of places was not catered in the original predicting model.
https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/article/2022-p1-registration-in-progress/ -
FWIW, here is what I’ve thought on the distance calculation.
Old:
-r = 1
-1 km area = 3.14 km^2
-However, part of the area included the school grounds on which there was no housing available.
-Hence, the effective area is: 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)3.14
New:
-Radius, when expressed as old radius, is something like 1.Yr (1 km from any point of school ground).
-Hence, new effective area is (1.Y km^2)*3.14
–> Relative area is [ (1.Y km^2)*3.14 ] / [ 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)*3.14 ] or [ 1.Y^2 ] / [ 1 - 0.X^2 ].
Assuming Y and X are equal or similar, it would seem unlikely that the effective area under the new calculation is 2x the effective area under the old calculation (40 seats / 20 seats). At the same time, it is definitely not doubling the spots for the same number of people.
Of course, if the new calculation picks up a large housing development or a significant portion of the old area was not available for housing (highway, nature area, etc), things could be different.
Open to any suggestions or corrections. -
https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP
While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.
Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.
To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.
The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.
All the best to the 2Bs next week. -
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