2022 P1 Registration Exercise for 2023 In-take

[floppy]

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074500\" time=\"1657835140\" user_id=\"188234:

Understand, I should have picked up on that. Will be interesting to see if things settle here (>2 km) or how long it takes for enough people to jump in the next bucket (1-2 km).

I guess 2B will be much the same for many schools (those that were at 20 seats previously). Some that lost seats in the new split to 2C will have to see if anything changes.

My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.

An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir and low density housing) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.

For MK schools that are balloting, < 2km should be the norm. MK enrollment priority is based on 500m and <1km, with a “bye” given to students from their partner EYC (typically within 1km of the MK). As a result, potential applicants from MK to the primary school (about 50 to 70 per cohort) are likely to be < 2km. This would make them very competitive in this phase. If you a former student from schools like Gongshang, Frontier and Princess Elizabeth, you would have to weigh the odds of whether it’s worthwhile to move < 2km to secure a chance at balloting or < 1km to be safe (for now).

[SG_KP1]

floppy\" post_id=\"2074504\" time=\"1657839876\" user_id=\"97579:

My take is it will be easier for some schools to get from > 2km to 1-2km due to factors such as availability of reasonably price housing (for sale or rent), ease of connectivity etc.

An example of a school that probably wouldn’t move much is ATS. In all likelihood, it would be stuck at > 2km because the catchment for < 1km is fairly small (due to a reservoir) and 1-2km housing are either very old, very expensive or in short supply.
.....

Understand, I've never looked at it \"that close\" (school by school) since I won't be playing the game anytime soon . I just think it's an interesting process, and in the aggregate there may be some conclusions one could hypothesize on.

I guess I wonder how many people are naturally within 1-2 km of the school (i.e. living there since kids were born or for a few years). If I were going to move, I would move within 1 km to be safe. Or at least try to do so. Eventually there are real housing constraints, and I guess right now it is hard to truly evaluate staying further out in a place that \"works\" better vs. going < 1 km in a place that has issues for 30 months.

As you say, some schools may be stuck at 2 km, in which case moving 1-2 km will be safe (at least for a while).

For the housing constraint reasons, I think some schools will look comparatively good in 2C. Yes, still need to ballot but I think the odds will be better than they were (and relatively speaking good value). Or I may be underestimating the distance calculation (again, haven't gone school by school in detail) and/or more people trying their luck to push the odds back towards where they were with 20 seats.

The watch continues...

[Liew Nga Wing]

For the below article,


1. The school name should be Wellington in Sembawang area not Welling as stated in the article.

2. The biggest surprises in Punggol area is caused by the removal of 30 places from the two (2) required strong balloting schools as the number of applicants for Phase 2A in both schools are the same or lesser compared to Year 2021. The removal of places was not catered in the original predicting model.

https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/article/2022-p1-registration-in-progress/

[SG_KP1]

FWIW, here is what I’ve thought on the distance calculation.


Old:
-r = 1
-1 km area = 3.14 km^2
-However, part of the area included the school grounds on which there was no housing available.
-Hence, the effective area is: 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)3.14

New:
-Radius, when expressed as old radius, is something like 1.Yr (1 km from any point of school ground).
-Hence, new effective area is (1.Y km^2)*3.14

–> Relative area is [ (1.Y km^2)*3.14 ] / [ 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)*3.14 ] or [ 1.Y^2 ] / [ 1 - 0.X^2 ].

Assuming Y and X are equal or similar, it would seem unlikely that the effective area under the new calculation is 2x the effective area under the old calculation (40 seats / 20 seats). At the same time, it is definitely not doubling the spots for the same number of people.

Of course, if the new calculation picks up a large housing development or a significant portion of the old area was not available for housing (highway, nature area, etc), things could be different.

Open to any suggestions or corrections.

[Lexy]

https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP


While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.

Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.

To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.

The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.

All the best to the 2Bs next week.

[crm]

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[crm]

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[crm]

From the number, what I can conclude is prior to this year, there are really lots of seats taken by ppl who stay beyond 2km or even the other end from the school.

If the strategy is to get those stay nearby to have more opportunity, then I think it might really work this year.

[tampinesmama]

Lexy\" post_id=\"2074560\" time=\"1657859031\" user_id=\"12180:

https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP

While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.

Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.

To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.

The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.

All the best to the 2Bs next week.

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

[floppy]

tampinesmama\" post_id=\"2074629\" time=\"1657877821\" user_id=\"175616:

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

The data was never publicly shared.

In the old days where you register physically on site, popular schools may share the data on a white board so that parents who don’t stand a chance can choose to apply elsewhere (if eligible) and not waste their chance in the on-going phase.

With 20 places for Phase 2B for SHPS, I think you can safely assume all applicants are < 1km. I think it will end up somewhere between 40 to 50 applicants, or about 40 to 50% chance.