2022 P1 Registration Exercise for 2023 In-take

[Liew Nga Wing]

For the below article,


1. The school name should be Wellington in Sembawang area not Welling as stated in the article.

2. The biggest surprises in Punggol area is caused by the removal of 30 places from the two (2) required strong balloting schools as the number of applicants for Phase 2A in both schools are the same or lesser compared to Year 2021. The removal of places was not catered in the original predicting model.

https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/article/2022-p1-registration-in-progress/

[SG_KP1]

FWIW, here is what I’ve thought on the distance calculation.


Old:
-r = 1
-1 km area = 3.14 km^2
-However, part of the area included the school grounds on which there was no housing available.
-Hence, the effective area is: 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)3.14

New:
-Radius, when expressed as old radius, is something like 1.Yr (1 km from any point of school ground).
-Hence, new effective area is (1.Y km^2)*3.14

–> Relative area is [ (1.Y km^2)*3.14 ] / [ 3.14 km^2 - (0.X km^2)*3.14 ] or [ 1.Y^2 ] / [ 1 - 0.X^2 ].

Assuming Y and X are equal or similar, it would seem unlikely that the effective area under the new calculation is 2x the effective area under the old calculation (40 seats / 20 seats). At the same time, it is definitely not doubling the spots for the same number of people.

Of course, if the new calculation picks up a large housing development or a significant portion of the old area was not available for housing (highway, nature area, etc), things could be different.

Open to any suggestions or corrections.

[Lexy]

https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP


While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.

Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.

To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.

The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.

All the best to the 2Bs next week.

[crm]

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[crm]

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[crm]

From the number, what I can conclude is prior to this year, there are really lots of seats taken by ppl who stay beyond 2km or even the other end from the school.

If the strategy is to get those stay nearby to have more opportunity, then I think it might really work this year.

[tampinesmama]

Lexy\" post_id=\"2074560\" time=\"1657859031\" user_id=\"12180:

https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP

While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.

Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.

To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.

The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.

All the best to the 2Bs next week.

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

[floppy]

tampinesmama\" post_id=\"2074629\" time=\"1657877821\" user_id=\"175616:

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

The data was never publicly shared.

In the old days where you register physically on site, popular schools may share the data on a white board so that parents who don’t stand a chance can choose to apply elsewhere (if eligible) and not waste their chance in the on-going phase.

With 20 places for Phase 2B for SHPS, I think you can safely assume all applicants are < 1km. I think it will end up somewhere between 40 to 50 applicants, or about 40 to 50% chance.

[Lexy]

tampinesmama\" post_id=\"2074629\" time=\"1657877821\" user_id=\"175616:

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

In the recent years of registration, 2018, 2020, 2021, there were 20 vacancies for 2B. Applicants were 40, 37 and 51. Given all required balloting within 1km, we tend to believe that only within 1km folks will apply. I do understand your thought of others who will still apply to try their luck (>1km), reasonably, I think its only a handful.

If you are not made to given up your spots secured in the earlier phases, and there are no alternative in 2B, then there is nothing to consider and just apply and wait for result. If you would like to assess your chance as you have alternative choices, you can use the above as a range of odds, 51/20 being the worst and 37/20 as the best. Additionally, in 2013 and 2017, there were around 35 vacancies available and in both years, balloting was done for 1-2km. This can be translated to there are years where less than 35 applicants stay within 1km of SHPS for 2B, so it can be slightly less than 35/20.

For the case of SHPS, it's a straight fight and balloting. Last year, 118 applied for 20 in 2C. 2020, there were 79 applying. Those who failed in 2B most probably went for it again in 2C. In my encounter with other parents, somehow it felt the same when the balloting was in progress whether the odds is 6 to 1 or 31 to 30. It was very stressful especially when physical balloting was conducted. At the end of the day, know your risk profile, assess your overall strategy, plan and move to your profile and have backup plan that you are satisfied with.

All the best.

[sembgal]

Lexy\" post_id=\"2074502\" time=\"1657839108\" user_id=\"12180:

Final stats of the Phase 2A. Application over 7k, a few hundred lesser than 2021 numbers but failed applicants increased from 300+ to 700+. About 51% of the vacancies are filled so far.

Of the 35 schools that were indicated as balloting potential, 4 schools escaped balloting, ACSP, Fern Green, Pasir Ris, Tao Nan, whilst SCGS and Wellington were not on the original 35. Final oversubscribed schools stood at 33, almost doubled from 2021. For SCs, 4 schools were balloting within 1km, 7 for 1-2km and 16 for >2km as compared to 3, 4 and 5 for the corresponding period.

Wellington Primary has MOE kindergarten linked to it. There are no primary schools in Canberra MRT new HDB estate. The nearest primary schools to Canberra new estate are Wellington Pri and Sembawang Pri. Students can take a direct bus or MRT. Those staying near to the canal side near to Yishun industrial park area will be within 1km to Chongfu School.

Sembawang Primary and Wellington Primary are the hottest primary schools now due to their accessibility. Canberra Pri has always been a hot favourite and balloting is expected. Parents can consider Endeavour Pri or Northoak Pri.

It is surprising to note that there is not a single primary school or secondary school being built in Canberra estate (near to MRT). Perhaps something could be done to resolve the problem as students will not be able to walk to school directly in less than 10 mins. They have to travel for at least 30 mins to reach school by public transport and walking to reach the school.