Punggol East By-Election coming ? MP steps down

[concern2]

Way2GO:

concern2:

[quote=\"raysusan\"]Who you think will win ? Maybe Desmond ?

It is a question that I do not want to think about ...but which I don't mind listening to others' analysis.

me hazard a guess:
RP + SDA : 5% SD(std dev) +/- 3%
PAP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
WP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
Spoilt votes : 1-2%

PAP & WP will go to d wire, highly possible recount.
PAP was courting d Malay votes earnestly in dis BE - at 11% of total electors in PE is quite substantial. Winning dat ground wld hv a significant impact in final vote count in a close fight.
WP can win only if they can swing a substantial number of d middle ground who voted for MP in last GE to them n RP attracts some of d same away fr PAP while at d same time, not eat into WP's share of votes.[/quote]Thanks for sharing! Though my initial feel is increase in WP and drop in PAP votes from the last GE, RP poses the ?? for me to be too sure....

[concern2]

htan045:

concern2:

[quote=\"Littlefly\"]Am going to vote later....... Vote for party or the candidate ?

Half a term left before the next GE, I don't mind giving a chance for an alternative party/ candidate to proof themselves, but I also want to vote for the alternative party which has a higher chance of winning. Just my take.

I am not PE resident. But if I am, I would vote in the same manner as you, as I know PAP will come back and woo us with more goodies and promises in 3 years time![/quote] :hi5:

[TheAnswer]

No need to speculate anymore. All will be revealed tonight!

[Way2GO]

concern2:

Thanks for sharing! Though my initial feel is increase in WP and drop in PAP votes from the last GE, RP poses the ?? for me to be too sure....

wrt RP, ppl r prolly looking at KJ's attractiveness as a candidate rather than d party as a whole.
If d campaign n attendance at rallies r an accurate reflection of his party, it has withered down to a one man show.
Despite his proclamation dat he \"is confident of winning\", d ground sentiments do not square with it. He has either misread d ground or he has become delusional.
He cld be in for a very unpleasant surprise at d final results dat wld hurt his political credibility for d future.

[Way2GO]

Irrelevant:

On another note, do you reckon that the lightning guys might move to a system of proportional representation in future, instead of the current first pass the post electoral system? I think it might be possible within 2-3 GEs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation//url

d PR system seeks to address a major flaw in d FPTP system BUT why wld d ruling party want to change a system if it continues to keep them in power? d 35% President may well not be d President today if not for FPTP system.

One attraction of d PR system is dat every vote really counts - dat aspect wld hv discourage tactical voting dat d MIWs is trying to dissuade voters fr doing in PE BE.

[mgnvr]

My feel is KJ is in this election not to win but to block WP from winning. His speeches are anti WP than anti PAP. Seng Kang residents please vote wisely.

[mummy so kiasu]

concern2:

Littlefly:

Am going to vote later....... Vote for party or the candidate ?

Half a term left before the next GE, I don't mind giving a chance for an alternative party/ candidate to proof themselves, but I also want to vote for the alternative party which has a higher chance of winning. Just my take.

Same here. :hi5: :hugs:

[pirate]

Way2GO:

me hazard a guess:

RP + SDA : 5% SD(std dev) +/- 3%
PAP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
WP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
Spoilt votes : 1-2%

PAP & WP will go to d wire, highly possible recount.

My guess is:

35% core PAP supporter will still vote PAP. Of the 20% swing voters who voted PAP in the GE 7-10% may swing (because it is a BE and AIM). That leaves PAP with 45-48%.

As for WP, 41% who voted WP in GE not likely to swing to other camp. WP likely to get a large part of the swing votes from PAP. Some who voted SDA in GE (maybe 1%?) may even vote WP this time. That makes it likely WP 46-49%.

RP and SDA combined not likely more than 5%.

I call advantage WP.

If the swing from PAP turns out bigger than this, PAP is in serious trouble in East Coast GRC, Joo Chiat SMC and maybe Sengkang West SMC for next GE unless they do either a radical revamp or gerrymander. WP will also likely field a team in Pasir Ris-Punggol and push SDA out from there.

[Way2GO]

pirate:

Way2GO:

me hazard a guess:

RP + SDA : 5% SD(std dev) +/- 3%
PAP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
WP : 47% SD +/- 2.5%
Spoilt votes : 1-2%

PAP & WP will go to d wire, highly possible recount.

My guess is:

35% core PAP supporter will still vote PAP. Of the 20% swing voters who voted PAP in the GE 7-10% may swing (because it is a BE and AIM). That leaves PAP with 45-48%.

As for WP, 41% who voted WP in GE not likely to swing to other camp. WP likely to get a large part of the swing votes from PAP. Some who voted SDA in GE (maybe 1%?) may even vote WP this time. That makes it likely WP 46-49%.

RP and SDA combined not likely more than 5%.

I call advantage WP.

If the swing from PAP turns out bigger than this, PAP is in serious trouble in East Coast GRC, Joo Chiat SMC and maybe Sengkang West SMC for next GE unless they do either a radical revamp or gerrymander. WP will also likely field a team in Pasir Ris-Punggol and push SDA out from there.

u r slightly more optimistic than me on d PAP/WP face-off.
my sentiments were closer to ur ballpark figures till d last day of d campaign.
Some undecided voters may just buy into d PAP's message at d last rally n when Malay speakers were brought in to win over d Malay votes.

Do concur a big swing to oppo will send a very strong message to d PAP dat all is not well.
But 3 years is a very long time in politics to put things right to reverse its poor showing.

[pirate]

Way2GO:

u r slightly more optimistic than me on d PAP/WP face-off.

my sentiments were closer to ur ballpark figures till d last day of d campaign.
Some undecided voters may just buy into d PAP's message at d last rally n when Malay speakers were brought in to win over d Malay votes.

Do concur a big swing to oppo will send a very strong message to d PAP dat all is not well.
But 3 years is a very long time in politics to put things right to reverse its poor showing.

I am not optimistic about WP. I am pessimistic about PAP.

But it's good that PAP throws everything at WP in this BE. It's also very good that 2 other parties decide to join in to make things more difficult for the WP. Singapore does not need a second rate opposition. Only when the ruling party and other minor parties put WP through a baptism of fire can a first rate opposition party emerge.

PE is a good start. I can already see that WP's grassroots organization is becoming something to be reckoned with, and all without free parking, priority for P1 registration or public service awards.

It's the first time I ever heard the PAP accuse an opposition party of \"frightening voters\". Previously it was always the opposition that accuse the PAP of frightening voters. PAP must have realized that LTK's last speech must have hit a chord somewhere with voters. Otherwise, what's there to frighten voters with?