Stylomum\" post_id=\"2075230\" time=\"1658243927\" user_id=\"143725:

Last year (2021), the most oversubscribed school at 2B was Tao Nan at 285%. The numbers would be fiercer this year, with less allocation to 2B from 2A leftovers. I had assumed that the typical-20-vacancies-school would have similar oversubscription this year, but seems like the applicants have jumped in some schools, for eg, MGS, the p2B applicants was 39 and 45 in 2020 and 2021 respectively and it is already 65 in day 1 for 2022. (320%).

On the other hand, some schools could still have many Day-2 P2B applicants, like Maha Bodhi, p2b applications were 53 and 52 in 2020 and 2021 respectively and it is only 23 on day 1 this year. Another one is Holy innocents, p2b applicants were 58 and 47 in 2020 and 2021 resp and it’s only 36 right now.And also SJIJ, p2b applications were 82 and 98 in 2020 and 2021 reps and its only 37 right now.

Still many p2b applicants not yet registered on first day.

For Tao Nan, this year is actually better than last year as there were only 20 spots left, this year is currently at 23. Somehow 2A wasn't fully subscribed. Not that additional 3 spots will not make a big difference to the %.

Overall, the applicants is just 5% lower than last year, which is more or less in line with the overall intake difference between the year. HIPS actually has an increase in applicants if we compare day 1 vs day 1 2021 figure. We have lower applicants for MSHS and SJIJ, more like people are sitting on the fence to see which one to apply, but no matter what they plan, those >2km are very much at risk of not getting any balloting chance. MGS, ATS and Xinmin numbers on day 1 are already more than 2021 2B day 2 numbers. Overall, day 2 numbers are around 30+% more, but they are from the usual suspects.

floppy\" post_id=\"2075272\" time=\"1658282827\" user_id=\"97579:

Really?

I didn't work the numbers this year so I probably didn't notice. Nevertheless, that's an interesting observation.
Frankly, with or without this rounding up / rounding off, I think Phase 2B is being squeezed the hardest following the new changes.

confirmed plus chopped. that ceiling and floor formulas need to be changed to round.

rains\" post_id=\"2075079\" time=\"1658145406\" user_id=\"6447:

Thanks for your patient replies. I am aware that Phase 2B onwards go by distance priority so schools only admit a certain number of parent volunteers to ensure that most PVs would get a place for their kids. I am also aware of Phase 2C going by distance priority. I am just unsure about balloting at Phase 2A.

When my friends told me that 2A1 and 2A2 are merged now, I was under the impression that they put every ballot slip from the whole population of 2A1 and 2A2 into the ballot box and pull out the ballot slips, regardless of distance.

If it goes by distance now, that means those who are out of 2km do not even stand a chance at balloting at Phase 2A? But I don’t seem to hear about news of that happening.

It also doesn't mean those over 2km do not stand a chance. It school to school specific. Most schools do not require balloting. Of those who are fully subscribed, 13 schools only admitted <2km kids, the rest still either go for ballot or got a place.

tampinesmama\" post_id=\"2074629\" time=\"1657877821\" user_id=\"175616:

Thanks for sharing this. Just wondering if there is actual data on the no of applicants for each distance? I remember there used to be some statistics posted here with data on the no of applicants for 2B within 1km & 1-2km but the stats were updated till 2017's intake and it's now being removed. I'm trying to find out my probability of getting into SHPS via 2B within 1km.

In the recent years of registration, 2018, 2020, 2021, there were 20 vacancies for 2B. Applicants were 40, 37 and 51. Given all required balloting within 1km, we tend to believe that only within 1km folks will apply. I do understand your thought of others who will still apply to try their luck (>1km), reasonably, I think its only a handful.

If you are not made to given up your spots secured in the earlier phases, and there are no alternative in 2B, then there is nothing to consider and just apply and wait for result. If you would like to assess your chance as you have alternative choices, you can use the above as a range of odds, 51/20 being the worst and 37/20 as the best. Additionally, in 2013 and 2017, there were around 35 vacancies available and in both years, balloting was done for 1-2km. This can be translated to there are years where less than 35 applicants stay within 1km of SHPS for 2B, so it can be slightly less than 35/20.

For the case of SHPS, it's a straight fight and balloting. Last year, 118 applied for 20 in 2C. 2020, there were 79 applying. Those who failed in 2B most probably went for it again in 2C. In my encounter with other parents, somehow it felt the same when the balloting was in progress whether the odds is 6 to 1 or 31 to 30. It was very stressful especially when physical balloting was conducted. At the end of the day, know your risk profile, assess your overall strategy, plan and move to your profile and have backup plan that you are satisfied with.

All the best.

BethnBelle\" post_id=\"2074611\" time=\"1657871976\" user_id=\"190415:

I have tried pv but unsuccessful .
And my add school within 1km only have Changkat, 1-2km are gongshang, chongzheng, Yumin, tampines , East spring , so I only can try for chongzheng under 2c as 2cs are available in East Spring.
I have no choice not I die die wan to bang wall 🤣

Based on what you said, Yumin, Tampines, Tampines North, Junyuan, Angsana, Changkat and East spring all can consider in 2C.

Ultimately, you will decide on your choice, we can only show you what we see.

BethnBelle\" post_id=\"2074555\" time=\"1657856994\" user_id=\"190415:

But 2c quota has increased right ?

Chongzheng 2B applicants ranging from 15 to 23 for the last 4 years.

If we use the lowest which is 15 for 2B, 2C will be left with 45 vacancies. The most recent year with similar vacancies was 2018, and it was balloting within 1km.

So far on record, Chongzheng was a school that required balloting within 1km with the exception of 2016, 2017 and 2019. All 3 years have vacancies of above 64 for the 3 years.

The new rule add some spots to Gongshang, St Hilda and Chongzheng, plus minus 60 in total, but doesn't seem to be able to cover all the applicants within 1km around the area. The new rule better the odds for those within 1km and maybe some lucky ones can go in via 1-2km (more likely Poi Ching).

At the moment, it looks likely Chongzheng will be balloting for those staying within 1km of the school in 2C.

https://postimg.cc/8sGJJWPP


While 2A folks are awaiting their results, I have done some work on the 2B projection. See the image.

Listed 35 Schools for 2B with balloting risks. A few schools would be too close to call so I didn’t add any balloting zone.
Another 17 have 10 or less buffer, of which 5 schools namely. Gongshang, Red Swastika, St Anthony’s, RGPS, Xinmin has less than 5 buffer.

To put the data into context, most of the schools with 20 vacancies for 2B are traditionally left with 20 spots, so the risk likely to remain unchanged. Joining this “20” list this year are Holy Innocents, Fairfield Methodist, MGS and Northland, as they are balloting within 1km last year, the trend likely to continue with worse off odds.

The actual applicants for some schools may be lower than the projected numbers for cases like SJIJ and CHIJ TPY, since those who stay >2km may opt to apply elsewhere due to low chance. I am unsure how one would be able to know the breakdown of applicants by distance then they apply or people are just applying without the need to know the exact breakdown. For those applying this phase, do note the risk as it may be different from last year.

All the best to the 2Bs next week.

Lexy\" post_id=\"2073615\" time=\"1657203558\" user_id=\"12180:

Another 2k+ were added today. 16 schools are oversubscribed so far:

Catholic High School
Chongzheng Primary School
Frontier Primary School
Horizon Primary School
Methodist Girls’ School
Nan Hua Primary School
Oasis Primary School
Pei Chun Public School
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School
Punggol Green Primary School
Punggol View Primary School
Rosyth School
South View Primary School
Temasek Primary School
West Spring Primary School
Westwood Primary School

Another 10 schools are currently with less than 10 spots left. Of those 10, Wellington caught my eye as it could be a MK effect, up from 48 to 74 so far in 2A. SCGS and Admiralty are also not in the shortlist of 35.

When I compared this year's applicants so far vs last year's applicants in 2A, around 10 schools have >40 lesser applicants so far with Rulang recording only 39 vs last year's 132. Hopefully it's not a case of 2A2 folks not knowing they can apply under the merged 2A phase

Given that phase 2 becoming more competitive due to the 1/3 rule, I think more people would apply under 2A if they are eligible. Reckon we still have another approximately 2k applicants to go.

The one week wait till 14 July may not be so pleasant for some.

Final stats of the Phase 2A. Application over 7k, a few hundred lesser than 2021 numbers but failed applicants increased from 300+ to 700+. About 51% of the vacancies are filled so far.

Of the 35 schools that were indicated as balloting potential, 4 schools escaped balloting, ACSP, Fern Green, Pasir Ris, Tao Nan, whilst SCGS and Wellington were not on the original 35. Final oversubscribed schools stood at 33, almost doubled from 2021. For SCs, 4 schools were balloting within 1km, 7 for 1-2km and 16 for >2km as compared to 3, 4 and 5 for the corresponding period.

floppy\" post_id=\"2074494\" time=\"1657816015\" user_id=\"97579:

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

If you are trying to say Phase 1 has 104 applicants, thus this phase should have 76 but is now showing 77, it's not unusual. Some previous applicant may have withdrew and register in another school. Again, not unusual if you have been tracking all the schools' updated figures.

If that someone didn't withdrew from NHPS, it will be shown as balloting within 1-2km folks. It is also not as exact as it seem. with 111 enrolled for 77, 34 failed. These are >2km folks or PRs.
Withdrawals are common, 21 withdrew during this phase.

estherix\" post_id=\"2073793\" time=\"1657287943\" user_id=\"183143:

Hi

I am looking to ballot in phase 2b (done the pv) at nan chiau (within 1km). But under the new changes, the number of vacancies could have reduce quite a fair bit at this phase. So if I failed to get in at phase 2b, should I still try at phase 2c? Or my chance will be better at Anderson pri at phase 2c using a caregiver address?

Thank you.

Nan Chiau is a straight fight. For 2B, it used to be around 1.1 to 1.4 times per vacancy. Current year is roughly 2.3 times per vacancy. For 2C, assuming all who failed in 2A and 2B enrol again in 2C, then the odds seems to be around the same ranging 3.3 times per vacancy.

For Anderson, there is a need for abit of guess work. Anderson in 2020 total vacancy for 2C was 38, for 1-2km balloting was 29 applicants for 6 vacancies making it 4.8 times per vacancy, it actually give you a better picture the odds. Within 1km applicants ranging from 32 to 56 from 2015 to 2021, with the last 4 years not more than 42. For your chance to be better for 1-2km, the vacancy need to be around 60s. Currently 2A Anderson number was reported as 23, we just have to wait for the 14 July for the final number to be out. I think more likely to be around 45-50 applicants for 2A, and the vacancies for 2C will be around 40+ to low 50s, the odds may not be favourable. My rough estimation is that if the vacancy is around 55 and above, the odds for 1-2km for Anderson will be better than 3:1.

Hope the parameter helps.