2018 P1 registration exercise for 2019 intake

[nashi]

:thankyou:

Lexy:

Hope this helps and works. :xedfingers: See below the comparison of 2018 vacancies for 2B vs applicants in 2017. Of the 24 schools highlighted in yellow, St Hila’s has the biggest shortfall (-38), followed by SJIJ (-31), Pei Hwa (-29), Holy Innocents’ (28), St Andrew and Nan Chiau (-24) and Maris Stella (-22). As the table does not take into account subsequent withdrawal and also possibilities of more applicants in 2B, take it as a reference. For those folks who are looking at those with bigger shortfall, have a closer look. I haven't checked much on the table so if you spot some mistake, do point it out. All the best everyone.


https://s22.postimg.cc/mlsmxt6ld/2_B_risk_1.jpg\">
https://s22.postimg.cc/6asj1lh9t/2_B_Risk2.jpg\">
https://s22.postimg.cc/oqczz1l4h/2_B_risk3.jpg\">

This is absolutely helpful! By any chance do u think we can assume same applications for 2B this year and simulate 2C risk and add on to the 2C table also?
So we can plan ahead..
Thanks sooooo much Lexy! :thankyou:

[lushlush]

Lexy:

mads:

Sengkang also plss...

here:


https://s22.postimg.cc/lenvx5ftt/Sengkang_2_A2.jpg\">

How about Hougang/Serangoon. Hheeee :goodpost:

[revils_ling]

Thanks Lexy! :grphug: Didn't mean to make u \"work\" overtime though :imsorry:

[softarts]

my distance:

st joseph :1-2km
hong wen:1km
2017 2C ballot: stjoseph 1-2km(128%); hong wen 1km(176%)
based on 2017 result looks st-joseph has advantage, is it possible to go to two school on that day to ask the number of 2c applications(and the distance distribution) then make decision? school officer would tell this?

[Orb]

softarts:

my distance:

st joseph :1-2km
hong wen:1km
2017 2C ballot: stjoseph 1-2km(128%); hong wen 1km(176%)
based on 2017 result looks st-joseph has advantage, is it possible to go to two school on that day to ask the number of 2c applications(and the distance distribution) then make decision? school officer would tell this?

My analysis is you cant based on 2017 numbers as this year is dragon year. the last one hour will see plenty of movement especially from parents trying for the two ACS and decided to swith to SJI jr. you may get caught out and wont get an opportunity to ballot.

[zac's mum]

I agree with Orb.


Since u are prepared to undergo balloting, then just apply to Hong Wen. Save u all the hassle. At <1km, you confirm have a chance to ballot.

Balloting is like buying lottery. One chance is as good as any other. Even if the odds are stacked against you, one chance is all you need.

I’m sure u already have a 2C(S) backup school which you’re happy to live with anyway.

[ksraja69]

Lexy:

Hope this helps and works. :xedfingers: See below the comparison of 2018 vacancies for 2B vs applicants in 2017. Of the 24 schools highlighted in yellow, St Hila’s has the biggest shortfall (-38), followed by SJIJ (-31), Pei Hwa (-29), Holy Innocents’ (28), St Andrew and Nan Chiau (-24) and Maris Stella (-22). As the table does not take into account subsequent withdrawal and also possibilities of more applicants in 2B, take it as a reference. For those folks who are looking at those with bigger shortfall, have a closer look. I haven't checked much on the table so if you spot some mistake, do point it out. All the best everyone.


https://s22.postimg.cc/mlsmxt6ld/2_B_risk_1.jpg\">
https://s22.postimg.cc/6asj1lh9t/2_B_Risk2.jpg\">
https://s22.postimg.cc/oqczz1l4h/2_B_risk3.jpg\">

Lexy:
This is indeed a super good job. Considering this year being the admission of Dragon babies, I am thinking the number of GRC applications will go up by 25% (I am thinking about schools that restrict PVs and not attached to any church or so), then the phase 2B applications may go up by 10% if the number of PVs remain same. Given this, for example a school like Rulang also is a touch and go (the number of PVCs are controlled at 16 or 18), with only a buffer strenth of 4. What is your opinion?

[Lexy]

softarts:

my distance:

st joseph :1-2km
hong wen:1km
2017 2C ballot: stjoseph 1-2km(128%); hong wen 1km(176%)
based on 2017 result looks st-joseph has advantage, is it possible to go to two school on that day to ask the number of 2c applications(and the distance distribution) then make decision? school officer would tell this?

Both ways it’s very tough, what is your backup plan? Whether is it in 2C and 2Cs. Some folks use farrer park and bendemeer as backup so no matter how, they will still apply for Hong Wen.

For Hong wen, 2017 they had 52 or 53 vacancies left in 2C.
37 applied for 2B in 2017 so we can assume 27 vacancies this year will be wiped out and you will be left with 27 in 2C. Potential applicants is 92 applicants in 2C so it’s really who blink first and who has the strongest heart to stay in the game. I have not seen a odd higher than 1.86 to 1 vacancy in Hong Wen, looks like this year can be a record breaking year.

SJIJ odd is distorted; 1.28 is using total applicants vs vacancies. Since you are 1-2km, what matter is how many will be within 1km and how many is 1-2km. Last year 58 vacancies left in 2C, this year is 51.
Last year, out of the applicants, 46 were within 1km and the rest of the 12 were balloted amongst 19 folks. So technically it’s 1.58 to 1 vacancies. Assuming everything equal, say 19 to 5 vacancies - odds can be 3 times. Moreover like others stated, you will probably sit at the school nearing the closing hours and seeing rushing parents coming in within 30min, 20mins, 10 mins or 5 mins or even last min and the slots suddenly wind down very fast and no time to react.

You need to ask yourself if your risk profile is of which level and plan out a strategy.

[Lexy]

ksraja69:

Lexy:
This is indeed a super good job. Considering this year being the admission of Dragon babies, I am thinking the number of GRC applications will go up by 25% (I am thinking about schools that restrict PVs and not attached to any church or so), then the phase 2B applications may go up by 10% if the number of PVs remain same. Given this, for example a school like Rulang also is a touch and go (the number of PVCs are controlled at 16 or 18), with only a buffer strenth of 4. What is your opinion?

Traditionally 2b applicants was around 25-27 so it’s a close call. Sometimes you need some “help” from those folks from the earlier phases to withdraw which this year is tougher since it is more competitive. So in the end it’s distance priority will determine the fate of the people here. If one is under 2B of Rulang and more than 2km, it will be tough.

Since we are on the rulang subject, the likely odds for rulang could be around 2.5 to 1 vacancy this year for 2C.

[galaxyraider]

Lexy:

softarts:

my distance:

st joseph :1-2km
hong wen:1km
2017 2C ballot: stjoseph 1-2km(128%); hong wen 1km(176%)
based on 2017 result looks st-joseph has advantage, is it possible to go to two school on that day to ask the number of 2c applications(and the distance distribution) then make decision? school officer would tell this?

Both ways it’s very tough, what is your backup plan? Whether is it in 2C and 2Cs. Some folks use farrer park and bendemeer as backup so no matter how, they will still apply for Hong Wen.

For Hong wen, 2017 they had 52 or 53 vacancies left in 2C.
37 applied for 2B in 2017 so we can assume 27 vacancies this year will be wiped out and you will be left with 27 in 2C. Potential applicants is 92 applicants in 2C so it’s really who blink first and who has the strongest heart to stay in the game. I have not seen a odd higher than 1.86 to 1 vacancy in Hong Wen, looks like this year can be a record breaking year.

SJIJ odd is distorted; 1.28 is using total applicants vs vacancies. Since you are 1-2km, what matter is how many will be within 1km and how many is 1-2km. Last year 58 vacancies left in 2C, this year is 51.
Last year, out of the applicants, 46 were within 1km and the rest of the 12 were balloted amongst 19 folks. So technically it’s 1.58 to 1 vacancies. Assuming everything equal, say 19 to 5 vacancies - odds can be 3 times. Moreover like others stated, you will probably sit at the school nearing the closing hours and seeing rushing parents coming in within 30min, 20mins, 10 mins or 5 mins or even last min and the slots suddenly wind down very fast and no time to react.

You need to ask yourself if your risk profile is of which level and plan out a strategy.

All 3 schools within the area (ACSJ, ACSP and SJIJ) have extremely lesser seats this year compared to past 3 years, so balloting for <1km in all 3 schools in Phase 2C is eminent. As you have been warned, many parents would deflect from both ACSJ and ACSP to SJIJ in the last minute, so for your distance group (1-2 km), you would be better off joining the balloting in Hong Wen (<1km).