2021 PSLE Discussions and Strategies (Children born in 2009)

[soloestoy]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2049467\" time=\"1638128638\" user_id=\"30663:

To determine the balloting risk level we need to first find out what is the lowest possible raw score or t-score equivalent for each AL COP.

For AL6, the lowest t-score is around 258 (MGS 2020), which mean for RGS (260), we are likely to see more applicants competing for a place in 2021. In a way, you can say that indicative COP for RGS is now 258 under AL system.

At the top, the difference is very narrow, however as the AL COP number gets bigger and when there is a possibility to include AL5 or 6 subjects, the difference can become very wide.

e.g. a school with 244 COP can be listed as AL11 for 2021, but the lowest possible score for AL11 is now around 225.
And this will lead to a larger pool of students competing for the more popular AL11 COP schools.

Let’s say the assumption behind the statement “ but the lowest possible score for AL11 is now around 225.” is sound, I.e 2021 and 2020 subject mean score and standard deviation are the same or very close, if you draw a bell curve for just AL11 scorers, how many of such 220+ are there on the left side tail? Do they really form a larger pool?

[Thinker]

Tookies\" post_id=\"2049390\" time=\"1638105029\" user_id=\"124548:

Hi I would like to confirm something about posting by merit. In prior years, the students r sorted by their T score (possibly up to decimal places).

But now there will be a larger pool of students of same AL score. How does the system decide who in this pool of AL score to fill in first?

Eg in a non-sap school where all AL13 students have been posted, left with 30 places for AL14 students. There are 50 students who happen to be citizens, and all placed the school as 1st choice. How does the system determine, who to fill up the places first and who will be the last 21 students to ballot for the last place?

I would expect all these 50 AL14 are in tie breaker position to ballot for 30 places. But in MOE’s example, it’s the same as previous system, that is some students balloting for the last place. So I’m kind of confused.

It is also my understanding that those 50 AL14 citizen students who chose the sch as first choice will ballot for the remaining 30 places.

Those international AL14 students or Singaporean AL14 students who chose the sch as 2nd and below will be excluded in balloting.

[Veyron]

soloestoy\" post_id=\"2049471\" time=\"1638138616\" user_id=\"56690:

Let’s say the assumption behind the statement “ but the lowest possible score for AL11 is now around 225.” is sound, I.e 2021 and 2020 subject mean score and standard deviation are the same or very close, if you draw a bell curve for just AL11 scorers, how many of such 220+ are there on the left side tail? Do they really form a larger pool?

The easiest way to analyse this is to try to convert 2020 t-score COP to raw score and then compare them with the lowest possible raw score mark under AL11.

Based on my calculation a 244 t-score should equate to around 331 raw scores. e.g AL11 (1 1 3 6) = 90+93+84+64 = 331

Under the AL system, the lowest possible score mark for AL11 band can now go as low as around 305 (or Tscore 225), achievable through a combined subject of AL 1 1 3 6 (90 90 80 45 = 305).

The odd of a student with lowest possible score may be low but having AL11 students with raw scores lower than 331 are plenty. And these are the students who will form the new pool of students vying for the AL11 COP schools

[babyA]

Hi for AL14, would the following be viable please:


1) CHIJ SJC (13)
2) TKGS (13)
3) CHIJ KC (15)
4) SMSS (11)
5) SAC (15)
6) CHIJ STC (13)

The first 3 are really where she wants to go in order of preference. The last 3 are really just filling up spaces. Please advise if this strategy is good please thank you

Also anyone has any advice with regards to the difference between CHIJ SJC and KC?

[soloestoy]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2049478\" time=\"1638142766\" user_id=\"30663:

The easiest way to analyse this is to try to convert 2020 t-score COP to raw score and then compare them with the lowest possible raw score mark under AL11.

Based on my calculation a 244 t-score should equate to around 331 raw scores. e.g AL11 (1 1 3 6) = 90+93+84+64 = 331

Under the AL system, the lowest possible score mark for AL11 band can now go as low as around 305 (or Tscore 225), achievable through a combined subject of AL 1 1 3 6 (90 90 80 45 = 305).

The odd of a student with lowest possible score may be low but having AL11 students with raw scores lower than 331 are plenty. And these are the students who will form the new pool of students vying for the AL11 COP schools

Care to share how your calculation works as I notice you did not use the (typically wrong) method of divide by four and multiply by three.

[JGMum]

Thinker\" post_id=\"2049475\" time=\"1638141138\" user_id=\"4205:

It is also my understanding that those 50 AL14 citizen students who chose the sch as first choice will ballot for the remaining 30 places.

Those international AL14 students or Singaporean AL14 students who chose the sch as 2nd and below will be excluded in balloting.

Yes, my understanding is also all 50 AL14 citizens who places school as first choice will ballot together.
I think citizenship comes before choice order. So a Singaporean AL14 who places school at 6th choice gets into the school first before PR/International AL14 student at 1st choice.

[Tookies]

JGMum\" post_id=\"2049486\" time=\"1638145143\" user_id=\"2001:

Yes, my understanding is also all 50 AL14 citizens who places school as first choice will ballot together.
I think citizenship comes before choice order. So a Singaporean AL14 who places school at 6th choice gets into the school first before PR/International AL14 student at 1st choice.

Thank you Thinker and JGMum!

[floppy]

babyA\" post_id=\"2049480\" time=\"1638143733\" user_id=\"29751:

Hi for AL14, would the following be viable please:

1) CHIJ SJC (13)
2) TKGS (13)
3) CHIJ KC (15)
4) SMSS (11)
5) SAC (15)
6) CHIJ STC (13)

The first 3 are really where she wants to go in order of preference. The last 3 are really just filling up spaces. Please advise if this strategy is good please thank you

Also anyone has any advice with regards to the difference between CHIJ SJC and KC?

Sorry to say, but this is an example of a terrible selection.

If all things remain the same, you have only managed to clear 2 schools COP - for 3rd and 6th choice - by only 1 point. If t-scores movement were any indication, the PSLE COP score is likely to move up or down by 2 points. P/S: Mid-tier schools often see the greatest movement!

If both schools go up by 1, and the rest stays where they are, you could effectively be left with no selection after choice merit / balloting. If MOE can’t post you to any of your choices, you are subject to MOE posting.

Rather than see the last 3 as fillers, better off to spend some time and consider schools in the 16 and below range in case the first 3 didn’t work out.

[SpongyBobs]

Zeal mummy\" post_id=\"2049462\" time=\"1638124496\" user_id=\"58173:[quote=\"Zeal mummy\" post_id=2049462 time=1638124496 user_id=58173]
Yes, you must have applied to the school in one of your 6 choices. The appeal would stand a better chance if it was your first choice.

——————
Instructions
Primary 6 students who have applied to Hwa Chong Institution during MOE’s Secondary 1 Posting Exercise but who are unsuccessful in gaining a place, may appeal to be considered for transfer to Hwa Chong Institution (HCI).
Applicants have to meet the PSLE cut-off point (COP) for admission into HCI.

Source: https://form.gov.sg/#!/6195dfd09b454c0015f594ef

—————-[/quote]

Thanks! That clarifies..

[CCK2008]

Veyron\" post_id=\"2049381\" time=\"1638103258\" user_id=\"30663:

interesting analysis.

Does anyone know what is the cohort size of

RGS
RI
HCI
NYGH

All 12 classes each, max 400 per cohort. But normally about ~380. They are top schools, so their campus is huge, so among sec schools, they had big intake.